Empirical Mapping of Suitability to Dengue Fever in Mexico using Species Distribution Modeling

Applied Geography

Applied Geography, Volume 33, April 2012

Elia Axinia Machado-Machado


  • Mapping dengue fever suitability empirically using species distribution modeling and cases.
  • Providing continuous maps of suitability to dengue fever for each municipality in Mexico.
  • Integrating the interactions between social and climatic factors associated with dengue fever.

“Dengue is considered the most important vector borne virus disease worldwide placing some 2.5 billion people at risk globally. Despite the public health concern about dengue fever, spatially explicit suitability assessments for this disease are limited due to data restrictions and the challenges posed by the complexity of the interactions among its risk factors, which involve social, economic, and ecological processes.

“This paper demonstrates an empirical approach to identify suitable areas for dengue fever using species distribution modeling and evaluates the relative contribution of climatic and socio-economic factors as dengue fever suitability determinants. Several models showing the potential distribution of dengue fever within all the Mexican municipalities are produced using different sets of predictor variables. The results suggest that at the scale of this study the climatic variables were more important determinants of suitability for dengue fever than the socio-economic variables considered in this study. All the models perform well (average testing AUC about 0.8) and show similar patterns. The model with the least number of variables and best performance includes the variables minimum temperature of the coldest month, mean temperature of the wettest quarter, and annual precipitation. However, there is not a high variability of AUC scores among the models generated.”

Use of Spatial Analysis to Evaluate the Quality of Pharmaceutical Services

CIFARP8th International Congress of Pharmaceutical Sciences (CIFARP 2011), Ribeirão Preto, Brazil, 21-24 August 2011


“The pharmaceutical service quality contributes to the rational use of medicines, ensuring the patient a drug therapy used appropriately, safely and effectively when they are accessible to all. Moreover, in countries of the European union the geographic and demographic criteria are considered for evaluating pharmaceutical services. This way, it becomes necessary to investigate the geographical distribution of community pharmacies for an equal access, once there is no law in São Mateus regulating the opening  of new outlets. Thus, this study aims to know the spatial distribution of the community pharmacies in São Mateus city, Espírito Santo state, Brazil and its coverage area. This is the first phase of the project to evaluate the quality of pharmaceutical services in the study area.

Spatial distribution of community pharmacies. São Mateus-ES (A) zoning area (500m buffer) (B) detail of the intersection between coverage areas of two pharmacies (C).

Spatial distribution of community pharmacies. São Mateus-ES (A) zoning area (500m buffer) (B) detail of the intersection between coverage areas of two pharmacies (C).