“Africa may be the continent most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The challenges are not uniformly distributed across Africa, with different regions exhibiting susceptibility to different types of problems. In a paper presented to the conference on Climate Change, Social Stress and Violent Conflict in Hamburg, Germany, CCAPS researchers, led by Dr. Joshua Busby, locate the confluence of vulnerabilities in African regions through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and multi-layered mapping.

“The study identified four main processes that encompass different aspects of vulnerability: (1) physical exposure to climatological disasters, (2) household and community vulnerability, (3) governance and political violence, and (4) population density. Each of these areas of vulnerability was given equal weight in the final vulnerability analysis. Within three of the four areas, a number of different indicators were identified that contribute to that dimension of vulnerability. Indicators within each area were assigned equal weight unless there were missing data for an indicator.

“Findings: the composite vulnerability map (see Figure x.5, p. 25) shows a number of interesting patterns. Areas with the greatest vulnerability are parts of Madagascar, coastal West Africa, coastal Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. More important than mere identification, however, is an in-depth examination of the drivers of this vulnerability, which can in turn inform appropriate policies and interventions. The elevated level of vulnerability does not result from the same elements in each of these places. In some cases, extreme exposure to climatological disasters makes an area very vulnerable, and physical adaptation strategies may be needed to reduce vulnerability. In other areas, though, poor governance or limited household and community resources for maintaining health and education may be more important than the magnitude of the physical climatological impacts. In those cases, improving governance, reducing violent events and improving access to health care, education and daily necessities may do more to reduce vulnerability than physical adaptation strategies. Uniform strategies will not be effective across this diverse continent.

“This working paper is based on a paper initially presented at the conference on “Climate Change, Social Stress and Violent Conflict” in Hamburg, Germany in November 2009. Part of the program on Climate Change and African Political Stability, principal investigator: Dr. Francis J. Gavin.”

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Geospatial World, 16 August 2010

Balungi Francis

“This project examines the use of GIS in creating an agro-climatic zone map. The map recognises that the major aspects of climate that affect plant growth are moisture availability and temperature. The agro-climatic zones are therefore specific combinations of moisture availability zones and temperature zones. The project was undertaken following the variability of rainfall and recurrent droughts in the country that affects the lives of millions of people whose livelihood is mainly dependent on agriculture. The project is of much importance as it is aimed at showing areas that are climatologically suitable for particular crops and also as a guide to the work of planners and farmers. The goal of this study is to extrapolate empirical research findings from the map for agric-environmental experimental design and as a framework for assessment of the impact of climate change on Soroti region agriculture. The objectives were achieved using Idris32 software incorporating various methods. A temperature map was created from a derived relationship (regression equation) between temperature and elevation using tabular temperature and elevation data obtained from four weather stations. The temperature zones were created by reclassifyng the temperature map. An evaporation map was created using a published relationship between evaporation and temperature. The moisture availability map was created by getting the ratio of rainfall map to evaporation. Moisture zones were created by reclassifying the moisture availability map. An agro climatic zone map was then created through a combination of the temperature zones with the moisture zones. The agro climatic zone map was classified using the Köppen and Thornthwaite agro climatic classification system. Finally crop growth in each zone was selected through a comparison of the temperature and moisture requirements for each crop based on published FAO data (climatic adaptability of crops) with the prevailing temperature and moisture conditions in each zone. The agro climatic zones were suitable for the growth of cassava, sweet potatoes, rice, sorghum, maize, millet and ground nuts. The results show that zones in the humid and dry-sub humid regions are highly suitable for agricultural production than those in the semi arid regions. The results are recommended for use on a lager scale only if they are accurate and representative of the climatic conditions in the selected region of the country. However, if many alternatives are to be included based on the stated criterion, an agro-ecological zone map should be created.”

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