Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change for the Blue Nile Basin, Using a RCM Nested in a GCM

Nile Basin Water Engineering Scientific Magazine, Vol.2, 2009

Eman S.A. Soliman, M. A. Aty Sayed, and Marc Jeuland

“This paper establishes a basis for evaluation of climate changes impacts within the Blue Nile River subbasin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. The RegCM3 model nested with the ECHAM5 General Circulation Model (Max Planck institute) were applied and the obtained results are presented.. The results were then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System NFS) (a distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin) and the interaction between the climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface was fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates were generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns were simulated using the NFS. The results, obtained from the RegCM3 climate model, were compared to the observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for the period 1985-2000. The validity of the stream-flow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, the modeling results of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055 are presented. The results indicated that the future changes in rainfall might vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. This suggested that there might be a good reason for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the commonly used GCMs.”

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