Spatial and Temporal Analysis of H1N1 (“Swine Flu”) in the United States

…manuscript prepared for Eurosurveillance Journal…

Applying Health Informatics Approaches to Support Public Health Risk Communication – Spatial and Temporal Analysis of H1N1 Human Infection Distribution in the U.S.

Chiehwen Ed Hsu, PhD, MPH, Ella T. Nkhoma, PhD, Noriaki Aoki, MD, PhD, Ning Shang, Dejian Lai, PhD

“(w)e propose a potential informatics-facilitated public health surveillance system for H1N1 risk communication. This system incorporates spatial and temporal analysis to evaluate the nature of emergency relevance of reported human cases of novel H1N1 Influenza human infection and its severity. Human cases reported in the U.S. were analyzed as of June 12, 2009, on the day when the WHO declared Level 6 pandemic flu of the H1N1 virus. It seeks to determine emergency nature of the case by excessive human cases by spatial and temporal distribution in the U.S. We evaluated the distribution trend of historical and current excess cases, and their associated geographic location and time period of occurrence by excess level. We also measured temporal variation pattern of case distribution to understand potential temporal trend of emergency relevance.”