The Strauss Center’s Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS) program has implemented Esri technology to view how climate change impacts vulnerable populations in Africa. CCAPS created the dynamic mapping tool in partnership with AidData for use by researchers, policy makers, journalists, and citizens. Users can visualize any combination of CCAPS data on climate change, conflict, and aid on a map to discover how different forces overlap or intersect.

Active Aid Projects in Malawi

“This mapping tool allows policy makers to analyze data from multiple sources at once, providing integrated analysis of the drivers and responses related to security risks stemming from climate change,” said Francis J. Gavin, director of the Strauss Center.

The tool is already being used in the country of Malawi for a solution that tracks and reports on the country’s external funding. Aid information is mapped along with data on climate change vulnerability and incidents of conflict. This sheds light on whether aid is effectively targeting regions where climate change or conflict poses the most significant risk to the sustainable development and political stability of the country.

“Climate change poses an enormous threat to the livelihoods of millions of Africans,” said Jean-Louis Sarbib, CEO of Development Gateway. “The level of risk, however, is not evenly spread and certainly doesn’t respect national boundaries. To ask critical questions about how development assistance can reduce vulnerability, you need hyperlocal data on climate and also on aid-funded interventions. This is what the new CCAPS mapping tool shows in a digestible, interactive way.”

By integrating CCAPS research on climate change, along with existing datasets such as topographic maps, imagery, and thematic information on conflicts, the CCAPS mapping tool aims to provide the most comprehensive view possible of climate change and security in Africa.

“The great work of these organizations is a real game changer for the development community,” said Jack Dangermond, president of Esri. “Being able to create a tool that allows people to communicate with others all over the world using maps is powerful. I am impressed with the work being done and excited to see what they will think of next.”

CCAPS and AidData will continue to release upgrades to the mapping tool throughout 2012. The current mapping tool is available to use now at www.strausscenter.org/ccaps/mappingtool. For more information on AidData, go to www.aiddata.org. Learn more about GIS solutions for climate change from Esri at esri.com/climate.

[Source: Esri press release]

Evolution: Education and Outreach

A. Townsend Peterson and Bruce S. Lieberman

“Species’ ranges are often treated as a fixed characteristic, rather than a fluid, ever-changing manifestation of their ecological requirements and dispersal abilities. Paleontologists generally have had a better appreciation of the changeable nature of species’ ranges than neontologists, but each perspective can improve by appreciating the other. Here, we provide an overview of paleontological and neontological perspectives on species’ geographic distributions, focusing on what can be learned about historical variations in distributions. In particular, we focus on enriching the field of phylogeography with a more explicit view of geography, taking into account variation through time in the geographic distribution of different environments, effectively integrating information from the fossil record, molecular genetics, and paleoclimatology. The cross-disciplinary view that would result offers novel perspectives on biogeography and macroevolution.”

• More information

Wetlands Ecology and Management

L. Suchenwirth, M. Förster, A. Cierjacks, F. Lang, and B. Kleinschmit

“Floodplain forests play a crucial role in the storage of organic carbon (Corg). However, modeling of carbon stocks in these dynamic ecosystems remains inherently difficult. Here, we present the spatial estimation of Corg stocks in riparian woody vegetation and soils (to a depth of 1 m) in a Central European floodplain using very high spatial resolution remote sensing data and auxiliary geodata. The research area is the Danube Floodplain National Park in Austria, one of the last remaining wetlands with near-natural vegetation in Central Europe. Different vegetation types within the floodplain show distinct capacities to store Corg. We used remote sensing to distinguish the following vegetation types: meadow, reed bed and hardwood, softwood, and cottonwood forests. Spectral and knowledge-based classification was performed with object-based image analysis. Additional knowledge rules included distances to the river, object area, and slope information. Five different classification schemes based on spectral values and additional knowledge rules were compared and validated. Validation data for the classification accuracy were derived from forest inventories and topographical maps. Overall accuracy for vegetation types was higher for a combination of spectral- and knowledge-based classification than for spectral values alone. While water, reed beds and meadows were clearly detectable, it remained challenging to distinguish the different forest types. The total carbon storage of soils and vegetation was quantified using a Monte Carlo simulation for all classified vegetation types, and the spatial distribution was mapped. The average storage of the study site is 428.9 Mg C ha−1. Despite certain difficulties in vegetation classification this method allows an indirect estimation of Corg stocks in Central European floodplains.”

• More information

Journal of Biogeography

Rebecca M. Swab, Helen M. Regan, David A. Keith, Tracey J. Regan and Mark K. J. Ooi

“Aim: While niche models are typically used to assess the vulnerability of species to climate change, they have been criticized for their limited assessment of threats other than climate change. We attempt to evaluate this limitation by combining niche models with life-history models to investigate the relative influence of climate change and a range of fire regimes on the viability of a long-lived plant population. Specifically, we investigate whether range shift due to climate change is a greater threat to an obligate seeding fire-prone shrub than altered fire frequency and how these two threatening processes might interact.

“Location: Australian sclerophyll woodland and heathland.

“Methods: The study species is Leucopogon setiger, an obligate seeding fire-prone shrub. A spatially explicit stochastic matrix model was constructed for this species and linked with a dynamic niche model and fire risk functions representing a suite of average fire return intervals. We compared scenarios with a variety of hypothetical patches, a patch framework based upon current habitat suitability and one with dynamic habitat suitability based on climate change scenarios A1FI and A2.

“Results: Leucopogon setiger was found to be sensitive to fire frequency, with shorter intervals reducing expected minimum abundances (EMAs). Spatial decoupling of fires across the landscape reduced the vulnerability of the species to shortened fire frequencies. Shifting habitat, while reducing EMAs, was less of a threat to the species than frequent fire.

“Main conclusions: Altered fire regime, in particular more frequent fires relative to the historical regime, was predicted to be a strong threat to this species, which may reflect a vulnerability of obligate seeders in general. Range shifts induced by climate change were a secondary threat when habitat reductions were predicted. Incorporating life-history traits into habitat suitability models by linking species distribution models with population models allowed for the population-level evaluation of multiple stressors that affect population dynamics and habitat, ultimately providing a greater understanding of the impacts of global change than would be gained by niche models alone. Further investigations of this type could elucidate how particular bioecological factors can affect certain types of species under global change.”

• More information

Magdalena Năpăruş and Matjaž Kuntner

“Background: Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters.

Predicted habitat suitability for Nephilengys cruentata within its directional distribution area

“Methodology/Principal Findings: We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics.

“Conclusions: Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.”

• Read the paper

University of Bielefeld, School of Public Health, Department of Public Health Medicine

Background
Global climate change and urban health are of global concern because the majority of the world’s population live in urban areas. Health problems are particularly prevalent in the rapidly urbanising megacities of developing countries, where a growing number of residents live in slums. Moreover, urban health in developing countries is increasingly affected by the diverse effects of global climate change, e.g. through droughts, inundations and an increased burden of infectious and non-infectious diseases and injuries. Research on the complex of health and the environment in urban areas of developing countries is urgently needed. Although transdisciplinary research in this scientific area is gaining importance, capacity building measures are still rare.

Approach
We offer a one-week seminar that focuses on statistical analysis and spatial-epidemiological modelling in the context of urban health in megacities of developing countries. Seminar topics are concentrating on health and the urban environment under a changing climate, including megacity development, burden of disease, and socio-ecological health determinants. The aim is to combine theoretical and lab work on statistical analysis and spatial-epidemiological modelling techniques in a transdisciplinary approach. We expect 30 participants with at least half of them being from developing countries.

Expected outcomes
Our participants will get a deeper understanding of the spatial and epidemiological dimensions of urban health under the view of climate change. Participants will be able to understand the multiple dimensions of health problems in megacities of developing countries and to apply statistical techniques which are commonly used in health sciences and in geography. They will further be able to work more effectively in collaboration with other disciplines for understanding and investigating multidisciplinary problems. These measures will enable them to develop sustainable strategies for the improvement of living conditions in megacities of developing countries.

• More information

PLoS ONE

Javier Nori, J. Nicolás Urbina-Cardona, Rafael D. Loyola, Julián N. Lescano, and Gerardo C. Leynaud

“Background: Biological invasion and climate change pose challenges to biodiversity conservation in the 21st century. Invasive species modify ecosystem structure and functioning and climatic changes are likely to produce invasive species’ range shifts pushing some populations into protected areas. The American Bullfrog (Lithobates catesbeianus) is one of the hundred worst invasive species in the world. Native from the southeast of USA, it has colonized more than 75% of South America where it has been reported as a highly effective predator, competitor and vector of amphibian diseases.

“Methodology/Principal Findings: We modeled the potential distribution of the bullfrog in its native range based on different climate models and green-house gases emission scenarios, and projected the results onto South America for the years of 2050 and 2080. We also overlaid projected models onto the South American network of protected areas. Our results indicate a slight decrease in potential suitable area for bullfrog invasion, although protected areas will become more climatically suitable. Therefore, invasion of these sites is forecasted.

Comparison between results of projections at present and 2080.

“Conclusion/Significance: We provide new evidence supporting the vulnerability of the Atlantic Forest Biodiversity Hotspot to bullfrog invasion and call attention to optimal future climatic conditions of the Andean-Patagonian forest, eastern Paraguay, and northwestern Bolivia, where invasive populations have not been found yet. We recommend several management and policy strategies to control bullfrog invasion and argue that these would be possible if based on appropriate articulation among government agencies, NGOs, research institutions and civil society.”

• Read the paper

Applied Geography

Marta M. Jankowska, David Lopez-Carr, Chris Funk, Gregory J. Husak, and Zoë A. Chafe

“Highlights

• Trend and sigma analysis of climate change in the Sahel is performed.
• DHS malnutrition of children in Mali is modeled with climate and livelihood zones.
• Both climate and livelihoods are significant for malnutrition.
• Climate and demographic trends are projected to 2025 and future impacts are assessed.
• A moving climatically driven vulnerability front-line is identified.

“This study develops a novel approach for projecting climate trends in the Sahel in relation to shifting livelihood zones and health outcomes. Focusing on Mali, we explore baseline relationships between temperature, precipitation, livelihood, and malnutrition in 407 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) clusters with a total of 14,238 children, resulting in a thorough spatial analysis of coupled climate-health dynamics. Results suggest links between livelihoods and each measure of malnutrition, as well as a link between climate and stunting. A ‘front-line’ of vulnerability, related to the transition between agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, is identified as an area where mitigation efforts might be usefully targeted. Additionally, climate is projected to 2025 for the Sahel, and demographic trends are introduced to explore how the intersection of climate and demographics may shift the vulnerability ‘front-line’, potentially exposing an additional 6 million people in Mali, up to a million of them children, to heightened risk of malnutrition from climate and livelihood changes. Results indicate that, holding constant morbidity levels, approximately one quarter of a million children will suffer stunting, nearly two hundred thousand will be malnourished, and over one hundred thousand will become anemic in this expanding arid zone by 2025. Climate and health research conducted at finer spatial scales and within shorter projected time lines can identify vulnerability hot spots that are of the highest priority for adaptation interventions; such an analysis can also identify areas with similar characteristics that may be at heightened risk. Such meso-scale coupled human-environment research may facilitate appropriate policy interventions strategically located beyond today’s vulnerability front-line.”

• More information

Applied Geography

Adele Houghton, Natasha Prudent, James E. Scott III, Richard Wade, and George Luber

“Highlights

• Platform for tracking local climate change environmental public health indicators.
• Visualization of potential health, vulnerability impacts of climate change policy.
• Vulnerability indicators primarily used existing, freely available data sources.

“Climate change will impact health through a variety of pathways – both direct and indirect. Identifying the specific link between climate-related hazards and vulnerability will require the integration of socio-environmental, meteorological, and health data. An enhanced monitoring and tracking system is critical for public health efforts to identify and reach populations vulnerable to climate-related hazards, mobilize resources, and inform local climate action policy to reduce climate-related health risks.

“In this paper we present a novel application of a geospatial tool that integrates multiple data sources, allowing for the streamlined visualization of environmental risk, socio-economic and demographic vulnerability, baseline mortality, and policy intervention measures. GEMSS (Geospatial Emergency Management Support System) is a browser-based application that is designed to assemble geospatial information from multiple local or remote sources in a common operating environment, allowing for multi-data visualization. Using vulnerability to extreme heat and heavy rainfall-induced flooding as climate impacts on health, we tested GEMSS’s capability as a multi-data platform to visually analyze spatial patterns of climate change environmental public health indicators at the local level. The selected indicators relied on socio-environmental and demographic vulnerability, health, policy, and weather data.

“The GEMSS system has the potential to support multiple goals including: a) the ongoing monitoring and assessment of climate-related vulnerability through visualization; b) providing policymakers with an open-source tool for understanding how vulnerable populations and the environment could be impacted by proposed climate action policies; c) tracking the ongoing status of climate change policies in reducing socio-environmental vulnerability; d) raising awareness among the general public about the links between climate change and public health; and, e) providing a basis for epidemiologic research (i.e., identifying gaps between climate and human vulnerability leading to hypotheses and hypotheses-testing).”

• More information

Applied Geography, Volume 34, May 2012

Terry L. Sohl, Benjamin M. Sleeter, Zhiliang Zhu, Kristi L. Sayler, Stacie Bennett, Michelle Bouchard, Ryan Reker, Todd Hawbaker, Anne Wein, Shuguang Liu, Ronald Kanengieter, William Acevedo

“Highlights

• The USGS is analyzing scenarios of land-cover change and resultant effects on carbon.
• A unique land-cover modeling framework was developed to support this work.
• Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC scenarios were developed.
• The FORE-SCE model was used to create spatially explicit land-cover projections.
• The methodology is demonstrated for the first completed U.S. ecoregion.

“Changes in land use, land cover, disturbance regimes, and land management have considerable influence on carbon and greenhouse gas (GHG) fluxes within ecosystems. Through targeted land-use and land-management activities, ecosystems can be managed to enhance carbon sequestration and mitigate fluxes of other GHGs. National-scale, comprehensive analyses of carbon sequestration potential by ecosystem are needed, with a consistent, nationally applicable land-use and land-cover (LULC) modeling framework a key component of such analyses. The U.S. Geological Survey has initiated a project to analyze current and projected future GHG fluxes by ecosystem and quantify potential mitigation strategies. We have developed a unique LULC modeling framework to support this work. Downscaled scenarios consistent with IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) were constructed for U.S. ecoregions, and the FORE-SCE model was used to spatially map the scenarios. Results for a prototype demonstrate our ability to model LULC change and inform a biogeochemical modeling framework for analysis of subsequent GHG fluxes. The methodology was then successfully used to model LULC change for four IPCC SRES scenarios for an ecoregion in the Great Plains. The scenario-based LULC projections are now being used to analyze potential GHG impacts of LULC change across the U.S.”

• More information