Applied Geography

Archive for the ‘Climate Change’ Category

Locating Climate Insecurity: Where are the Most Vulnerable Places in Africa?

In Climate Change, GIS on September 2, 2010 at 8:41 am

“Africa may be the continent most vulnerable to the effects of climate change. The challenges are not uniformly distributed across Africa, with different regions exhibiting susceptibility to different types of problems. In a paper presented to the conference on Climate Change, Social Stress and Violent Conflict in Hamburg, Germany, CCAPS researchers, led by Dr. Joshua Busby, locate the confluence of vulnerabilities in African regions through the use of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and multi-layered mapping.

“The study identified four main processes that encompass different aspects of vulnerability: (1) physical exposure to climatological disasters, (2) household and community vulnerability, (3) governance and political violence, and (4) population density. Each of these areas of vulnerability was given equal weight in the final vulnerability analysis. Within three of the four areas, a number of different indicators were identified that contribute to that dimension of vulnerability. Indicators within each area were assigned equal weight unless there were missing data for an indicator.

“Findings: the composite vulnerability map (see Figure x.5, p. 25) shows a number of interesting patterns. Areas with the greatest vulnerability are parts of Madagascar, coastal West Africa, coastal Nigeria, Ethiopia, and the Democratic Republic of Congo. More important than mere identification, however, is an in-depth examination of the drivers of this vulnerability, which can in turn inform appropriate policies and interventions. The elevated level of vulnerability does not result from the same elements in each of these places. In some cases, extreme exposure to climatological disasters makes an area very vulnerable, and physical adaptation strategies may be needed to reduce vulnerability. In other areas, though, poor governance or limited household and community resources for maintaining health and education may be more important than the magnitude of the physical climatological impacts. In those cases, improving governance, reducing violent events and improving access to health care, education and daily necessities may do more to reduce vulnerability than physical adaptation strategies. Uniform strategies will not be effective across this diverse continent.

“This working paper is based on a paper initially presented at the conference on “Climate Change, Social Stress and Violent Conflict” in Hamburg, Germany in November 2009. Part of the program on Climate Change and African Political Stability, principal investigator: Dr. Francis J. Gavin.”

Using GIS to Create an Agro-climatic Zone Map for Soroti District, Uganda

In Climate Change, GIS on September 2, 2010 at 8:03 am

Geospatial World, 16 August 2010

Balungi Francis

“This project examines the use of GIS in creating an agro-climatic zone map. The map recognises that the major aspects of climate that affect plant growth are moisture availability and temperature. The agro-climatic zones are therefore specific combinations of moisture availability zones and temperature zones. The project was undertaken following the variability of rainfall and recurrent droughts in the country that affects the lives of millions of people whose livelihood is mainly dependent on agriculture. The project is of much importance as it is aimed at showing areas that are climatologically suitable for particular crops and also as a guide to the work of planners and farmers. The goal of this study is to extrapolate empirical research findings from the map for agric-environmental experimental design and as a framework for assessment of the impact of climate change on Soroti region agriculture. The objectives were achieved using Idris32 software incorporating various methods. A temperature map was created from a derived relationship (regression equation) between temperature and elevation using tabular temperature and elevation data obtained from four weather stations. The temperature zones were created by reclassifyng the temperature map. An evaporation map was created using a published relationship between evaporation and temperature. The moisture availability map was created by getting the ratio of rainfall map to evaporation. Moisture zones were created by reclassifying the moisture availability map. An agro climatic zone map was then created through a combination of the temperature zones with the moisture zones. The agro climatic zone map was classified using the Köppen and Thornthwaite agro climatic classification system. Finally crop growth in each zone was selected through a comparison of the temperature and moisture requirements for each crop based on published FAO data (climatic adaptability of crops) with the prevailing temperature and moisture conditions in each zone. The agro climatic zones were suitable for the growth of cassava, sweet potatoes, rice, sorghum, maize, millet and ground nuts. The results show that zones in the humid and dry-sub humid regions are highly suitable for agricultural production than those in the semi arid regions. The results are recommended for use on a lager scale only if they are accurate and representative of the climatic conditions in the selected region of the country. However, if many alternatives are to be included based on the stated criterion, an agro-ecological zone map should be created.”

Planning for Climate Change—ClimateWise

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, GIS, Modeling on August 25, 2010 at 6:24 am

2010 ESRI International User Conference, San Diego, CA

Richard Nauman, Jessica Leonard

“Our ClimateWise program uses GIS to incorporate climate modeling data in community-based climate change adaptation planning. Modeling efforts have produced a series of large, spatially explicit datasets projecting future climatic conditions. The volume of information produced by these efforts coupled with the technical difficulty of accessing the data, processing it, and displaying it in a GIS environment has limited their usefulness for non-technical audiences. We have developed Python scripts that use the built-in geoprocessing functionality of ArcGIS to access these files and produce cartographic and tabular output used in climate adaptation planning processes. When incorporated into a facilitated series of forums, these data have proven valuable communities creating climate change adaptation plans at the river basin scale. Our process integrates the needs of cultural, ecological, economic, social, and built sectors of communities and results in robust action plans that build resistance and resilience in human and natural systems.”

Spatial Distribution Change of Forest Cover by Climate Change in Korea

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on August 11, 2010 at 11:41 am

2010 ESRI International User Conference, San Diego, CA

Jae-Gyun Byun, Jung-Kee Choi, Young-Jin Lee, Woo-Kyun Lee, and Dong-Jun Chung

“This study analyzed the impact of climatic and topographic factors on tree radial growth of red pine and oak forest in Korea. Annual tree growth can be affected by age, current size, density, competition, site environment, and climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation and humidity. To find the relationship between annual tree radial growth and climatic factors, we took core samples from individual trees and measured the tree radial width. We found the spatial differences in tree radial growth. There exists spatial relationship between topographic and climatic factors, and tree radial growth. Using this relationship, we predicted spatial distribution change of red pine and oak forest with GAM (Generalized Additive Model) analysis based on GIS.”

Vulnerability Assessment of Water Resources to Climate Change Using GIS

In Climate Change, GIS, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on August 11, 2010 at 6:59 am

2010 ESRI International User Conference, San Diego, CA

Guishan CUI, Sang-chul LEE, Woo-Kyun LEE, and Ji-woong CHUNG

“Climate change has influenced on various environmental and social sectors. Especially, it has significant impact on water resource, such as drought and flood. In this study, we assessed the flood and drought vulnerability to climate change using GIS-based spatio-temporal information. Vulnerability is assessed in terms of sensitivity, exposure and adaptation. We prepared criteria and indicators for climate change impact assessment to flood and drought, and integrated GIS based data which is correspondent to indicators. As a result, we mapped flood and drought vulnerability and suggested adaptation strategies in Korea. South-eastern region of Korea is likely to be vulnerable to flood. And central-western region of Korea is vulnerable to drought.”

New Chief for USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on August 6, 2010 at 7:59 am

Doug Beard has been selected as the chief of the USGS National Climate Change and Wildlife Science Center.

The NCCWSC is helping understand climate change impacts on fish and wildlife and develop tools that resource managers can use to protect these species and their habitats.

“Earth’s climate is expected to have significant impacts on our nation’s fish and wildlife now and in the future,” said Beard. “The USGS NCCSWS is providing sound science on how the climate may change and how landscapes and habitats will respond, helping managers develop effective strategies to protect species survival.”

Beard had already been serving as the interim director of the USGS NCCWSC since September 2009. Previously, he was the USGS program coordinator for fisheries and aquatic and endangered resources. He first joined the USGS in 2003, working as a program manager with the National Biological Information Infrastructure. Before coming to the USGS, he held fishery management positions in Wisconsin and Minnesota Departments of Natural Resources. He received a bachelor’s in biology from the University of Wisconsin – Eau Claire, a master’s in fish and wildlife from Pennsylvania State University, and a doctorate in zoology from the University of Wisconsin – Madison.

Beard will also oversee the establishment and program direction of the Department of the Interior’s eight regional Climate Science Centers. These CSCs will provide scientific information, tools and techniques needed to manage land, water, wildlife and cultural resources in the face of climate change. The NCCWSC and other USGS scientific programs will work closely with these CSCs.

The USGS and the DOI CSCs will work with a network of Landscape Conservation Cooperatives in which federal, state, tribal and other managers and scientists will develop conservation, adaptation and mitigation strategies for dealing with the impacts of climate change.

The NCCWSC was established by Congress in 2008. Projects currently underway include studies of alterations in Florida’s ecosystems, potential impacts on Great Lakes’ fish, sea-level rise impacts on San Francisco Bay marshes, and the effects of melting glaciers on Alaska’s freshwater coastal systems.

Get more information about the USGS NCCWSC, and learn more about the DOI CSCs.

[Source: USGS press release]

Vulnerability Assessment of Landslide to Climate Change in South Korea

In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS on August 3, 2010 at 10:21 am

2010 ESRI International User Conference, San Diego, CA

Zhen Xu, Han-Bin Kwak, and Woo-Kyun Lee

“Climate change engages in extreme weather condition, such as flood and drought which cause the natural disasters including landslide and water shortage, etc. Adaptation measures should be prepared on the basis of vulnerability assessment for these disasters by climate change.

“As criterions for assessing landslide vulnerability to climate change, the sensitivity, exposure and adaptation indices were employed. The sensitivity was quantified by residential area, industry and commerce area, traffic area, and mining area. The exposure was quantified by landslide risk model which considers slope distance, parent rock, slope position, forest type, slope forms, soil depth and gradient. On the other hand, the adaptation was quantified by forest density. Finally, using these criterions, the vulnerability of landslide to climate change was assessed and the spatial landslide vulnerability map was prepared in Korea.”

A GIS Analysis of Climate Change and Snowpack on Columbia Basin Tribal Lands

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Social Science on July 28, 2010 at 11:36 am

Ecological Restoration, 27(3):256-257 (2009)

David Graves

“”A robust snowpack is the most important factor for the delivery of cool and consistent stream flows throughout the year in the Pacific Northwest, but it is at risk of depletion in an era of climate change. Most of the region’s precipitation falls during the cool months between autumn and spring, historically as snow in upland areas. There it exists as a frozen reservoir that, as it melts, sustains flows during the dry months of late spring and summer. With increasing air temperatures anticipated from 21st century climate change, many of these upland areas in the Pacific Northwest may receive more rain and less snow, leading to increasing flooding during the winter months and lower stream flows during the summer months, when water is needed most for competing economic and ecological uses (Mote et al. 2003, ISAB 2007). The Indian tribes of the Columbia River Basin are interested in how these conditions may change because seasonal stream flows are critically important to salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha, O. keta, O. kisutch, and O. nerka) and steelhead (O. mykiss), and they are also important to other traditional food resources of the tribes such as lamprey (Lampetra tridentata), sturgeon (Acipenser transmontanus), deer (Odocoileus spp.) and other big game, biscuit root (Lomatium cous) and other roots, and berries.

http://www.critfc.org/tech/climate/Graves_ER27-3_pp256-257.pdf

Modeling REDD Baselines using IDRISI’s Land Change Modeler

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling on July 27, 2010 at 9:56 am

IDRISI Focus Paper, Clark Labs, 2010

“Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) is a climate change mitigation strategy gaining momentum with conservation organizations, project developers and governments in developing countries. Forests play a major role in the sequestration of carbon, and the conservation of tropical forests, in particular, yields the greatest potential for reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This paper will provide a general overview of modeling REDD baselines, one of many components required for REDD implementation.”

Evaluating Sustainability of Projected Water Demands in 2050 under Climate Change Scenarios

In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS on July 21, 2010 at 12:43 pm

More than One Out of Three U.S. Counties Face Water Shortages Due to Climate Change

More than 1,100 U.S. counties — a full one-third of all counties in the lower 48 states — now face higher risks of water shortages by mid-century as the result of global warming, and more than 400 of these counties will be at extremely high risk for water shortages, based on estimates from a new report by Tetra Tech for the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC).

The report uses publicly available water use data across the United States and climate projections from a set of models used in recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) work to evaluate withdrawals related to renewable water supply.  The report finds that 14 states face an extreme or high risk to water sustainability, or are likely to see limitations on water availability as demand exceeds supply by 2050. These areas include parts of Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Kansas, Mississippi, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New Mexico, Oklahoma, and Texas. In particular, in the Great Plains and Southwest United States, water sustainability is at extreme risk.

The more than 400 counties identified as being at greatest risk in the report reflects a 14-times increase from previous estimates. For a look at county- and state-specific maps detailing the report findings (including a Google Earth map), go to http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/watersustainability/ and http://rd.tetratech.com/climatechange/projects/nrdc_climate.asp.

While detailed modeling of climate change impacts on crop production was beyond the scope of the Tetra Tech analysis, the potential scale of disruption is reflected based on the value of the crops produced in the 1,100 at-risk counties. In 2007, the value of the crops produced in the at-risk counties identified in the report exceeded $105 billion.  A separate study compared the Tetra Tech data with county-level crop production data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture; state-specific fact sheets outlining the potential agricultural impacts may be found at http://agcarbonmarkets.com/Science.htm.

Dan Lashof, director of the Climate Center at NRDC, said: “This analysis shows climate change will take a serious toll on water supplies throughout the country in the coming decades, with over one out of three U.S. counties facing greater risks of water shortages. Water shortages can strangle economic development and agricultural production and affected communities.  As a result, cities and states will bear real and significant costs if Congress fails to take the steps necessary to slow down and reverse the warming trend. Water management and climate change adaptation plans will be essential to lessen the impacts, but they cannot be expected to counter the effects of a warming climate.  The only way to truly manage the risks exposed by this report is for Congress to pass meaningful legislation that cuts global warming pollution and allows the U.S. to exercise global leadership on the issue.”

Sujoy Roy, principal engineer and lead report author, Tetra Tech, said: “The goal of the analysis is to identify regions where potential stresses, and the need to do something about them, may be the greatest. We used publicly available data on current water withdrawals for different sectors of theeconomy, such as irrigation, cooling for power generation, and municipal supply, and estimated future demands using business-as-usual scenarios of growth.  We then compared these future withdrawals to a measure of renewable water supply in 2050, based on a set of 16 global climate model projections of temperature and precipitation, to identify regions that may be stressed by water availability.  These future stresses are related to changes in precipitation as well as the likelihood of increased demand in some regions.”

Water withdrawal will grow by 25 percent in many areas of the U.S. including the arid Arizona/New Mexico area, the populated areas in the South Atlantic region, Florida, the Mississippi River basin, and Washington, D.C. and surrounding regions.

Estimated water withdrawal as a percentage of available precipitation is generally less than 5 percent for the majority of the Eastern United States, and less than 30 percent for the majority of the Western United States. But in some arid regions (such as Texas, the Southwest, and California) and agricultural areas, water withdrawal is greater than 100 percent of the available precipitation. In other words, in many places, water is already used in quantities that exceed supply.

A summary of the report and related links are available at http://www.nrdc.org/globalWarming/watersustainability/.

METHODOLOGY

Tetra Tech projected future water demand and supply.  Demand was projected based upon a business-as-usual scenario of continued population growth and associated energy and cooling water needs. Supply – or available precipitation – was estimated from current and future temperature and precipitation scenarios, obtained from an ensemble of 16 global climate models.  The analysis then compared future demand to future supply to provide an initial assessment of water resources sustainability across the nation – resolved at the county level, the best resolution for water use information – and helped identify areas most likely to be adversely impacted by increasing water demand and climate change.

The Tetra Tech report develops a new water supply sustainability index. The risk to water sustainability is based on the following criteria:  (1) projected water demand as a share of available precipitation; (2) groundwater use as a share of projected available precipitation; (3) susceptibility to drought; (4) projected increase in freshwater withdrawals; and (5) projected increase in summer water deficit.

More detailed explanations of the study methodology and water sustainability criteria can be found at  http://rd.tetratech.com/climatechange/projects/nrdc_climate.asp.

[Source: NRDC press release]

The Digital Earth: 12 Years Later

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Spatial Analysis, Visualization on July 21, 2010 at 9:02 am

Vice President Al Gore delivered a forward-looking speech titled “The Digital Earth: Understanding our Planet in the 21st Century” at the California Science Center in Los Angeles on 31 January 1998.  Regardless of how you feel about Al Gore, every geospatial professional should read this once in a while – to both congratulate ourselves on how much progress we’ve made, and remind us there is still work to be done.

“A new wave of technological innovation is allowing us to capture, store, process and display an unprecedented amount of information about our planet and a wide variety of environmental and cultural phenomena. Much of this information will be “georeferenced” – that is, it will refer to some specific place on the Earth’s surface.

“I believe we need a “Digital Earth”. A multi-resolution, three-dimensional representation of the planet, into which we can embed vast quantities of geo-referenced data.”

You can read Gore’s complete speech here [PDF]

For a good overview of what’s happened in the last 12 years, see Digital Earth on Wikipedia

Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Variability and Change on Agriculture

In Climate Change, GIS on July 19, 2010 at 6:31 am

Belay Tseganeh Kassie, H. Hengsdijk, R. Roetter, H. van Keulen, and Girma Mamo

This project is part of the joint Finnish-Netherlands-Ethiopian project Exploring alternative scenarios of adapting to climate change (AlterCLIMA) financed by the Academy of Finland, Development Research programme.

“Ethiopia is highly vulnerable to climate variability and change, due to its dependence on rainfed agriculture, low level of socio-economic development, and limited disaster management skills. Quantitative climate impact assessments on Ethiopian agriculture are scarce. This study is being conducted in two case studies, the Central Rift Valley and North Wollo, differing in environmental conditions, food security, poverty, and adaptive capacity.”

Powered by Standards – New Data Tools for the Climate Sciences

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on July 14, 2010 at 7:13 am

International Journal of Digital Earth, Volume 3, Issue S1 April 2010 , pages 85 – 102

Andrew Woolf

“The ultimate goal of much current research in earth science informatics is to enable more efficient discovery and use of environmental data. Large-scale efforts are underway at regional and global levels. For instance the European INSPIRE Directive (2007/2/EC) and international GEOSS initiative will both provide unprecedented catalogues of earth observation and environmental data, with links to online services providing direct access to digital data repositories. While the motivation for these emerging infrastructures is clear (e.g. understanding global change), it is less obvious how they might be implemented. Standards will play a major role and considerable effort is currently being devoted to their development by bodies like the International Organisation for Standardisation and the Open Geospatial Consortium. Internet search engines are amongst the most popular websites visited today. Using the metaphor of a web search portal, we review the potential of new geospatial standards to provide an advanced, user-friendly approach to discovery and use of climate-science data.”

Benefits of Tropical Forest Management under the New Climate Change Agreement—A Case Study in Cambodia

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on July 12, 2010 at 1:59 pm

Environmental Science & Policy, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 26 May 2010

Nophea Sasaki and Atsushi Yoshimoto

“Promoting sustainable forest management as part of the reduced emissions from deforestation and degradation in developing countries (REDD)-plus mechanism in the Copenhagen Accord of December 2009 implies that tropical forests will no longer be ignored in the new climate change agreement. As new financial incentives are pledged, costs and revenues on a 1-ha tract of tropical forestland being managed or cleared for other land use options need to be assessed so that appropriate compensation measures can be proposed. Cambodia’s highly stocked evergreen forest, which has experienced rapid degradation and deforestation, will be the first priority forest to be managed if financial incentives through a carbon payment scheme are available. By analyzing forest inventory data, we assessed the revenues and costs for managing a hypothetical 1 ha of forestland against six land use options: business-as-usual timber harvesting (BAU-timber), forest management under the REDD-plus mechanism, forest-to-teak plantation, forest-to-acacia plantation, forest-to-rubber plantation, and forest-to-oil palm plantation. We determined annual equivalent values for each option, and the BAU-timber and REDD-plus management options were the highest, with both options influenced by logging costs and timber price. Financial incentives should be provided at a level that would allow continuation of sustainable logging and be attractive to REDD-plus project developers.”

Analyzing the Efficacy of Subtropical Urban Forests in Offsetting Carbon Emissions from Cities

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Statistics on July 8, 2010 at 6:42 am

Environmental Science & Policy, In Press, Corrected Proof, Available online 13 April 2010

Francisco Escobedo, Sebastian Varela, Min Zhao, John E. Wagner, and Wayne Zipperer

“Urban forest management and policies have been promoted as a tool to mitigate carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. This study used existing CO2 reduction measures from subtropical Miami-Dade and Gainesville, USA and modeled carbon storage and sequestration by trees to analyze policies that use urban forests to offset carbon emissions. Field data were analyzed, modeled, and spatially analyzed to compare CO2 sequestered by managing urban forests to equivalent amounts of CO2 emitted in both urban areas. Urban forests in Gainesville have greater tree density, store more carbon and present lower per-tree sequestration rates than Miami-Dade as a result of environmental conditions and urbanization patterns. Areas characterized by natural pine-oak forests, mangroves, and stands of highly invasive trees were most apt at sequestering CO2. Results indicate that urban tree sequestration offsets CO2 emissions and, relative to total city-wide emissions, is moderately effective at 3.4 percent and 1.8 percent in Gainesville and Miami-Dade, respectively. Moreover, converting available non-treed areas into urban forests would not increase overall CO2 emission reductions substantially. Current CO2 sequestration by trees was comparable to implemented CO2 reduction policies. However, long-term objectives, multiple ecosystem services, costs, community needs, and preservation of existing forests should be considered when managing trees for climate change mitigation and other ecosystem services.”

Achieving Forest Carbon Information with Higher Certainty: A Five-part Plan

In Climate Change, GIS on July 7, 2010 at 7:41 am

Environmental Science & Policy, Volume 13, Issue 3, May 2010, Pages 249-260

D. James Baker, Gary Richards, Alan Grainger, Patrick Gonzalez, Sandra Brown, Ruth DeFries, Alexander Held, Josef Kellndorfer, Peter Ndunda, Dennis Ojima, Per-Erik Skrovseth, Carlos Souza Jr., and Fred Stollem

“International negotiations on the inclusion of land use activities into an emissions reduction system for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have been partially hindered by the technical challenges of measuring, reporting, and verifying greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and the policy issues of leakage, additionality, and permanence. This paper outlines a five-part plan for estimating forest carbon stocks and emissions with the accuracy and certainty needed to support a policy forReducing Emissions from Deforestation and forest Degradation, forest conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks (the REDD-plus framework considered at the UNFCCC COP-15) in developing countries. The plan is aimed at UNFCCC non-Annex 1 developing countries, but the principles outlined are also applicable to developed (Annex 1) countries. The parts of the plan are: (1) Expand the number of national forest carbon Measuring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) systems with a priority on tropical developing countries; (2) Implement continuous global forest carbon assessments through the network of national systems; (3) Achieve commitments from national space agencies for the necessary satellite data; (4) Establish agreed-on standards and independent verification processes to ensure robust reporting; and (5) Enhance coordination among international and multilateral organizations.”

Use of Land Facets to Plan for Climate Change: Conserving the Arenas, Not the Actors

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling, Statistics on July 7, 2010 at 6:32 am

Conservation Biology, 24: 701-710, 2010

P. Beier and B. Brost

“Even under the most optimistic scenarios, during the next century human-caused climate change will threaten many wild populations and species. The most useful conservation response is to enlarge and link protected areas to support range shifts by plants and animals. To prioritize land for reserves and linkages, some scientists attempt to chain together four highly uncertain models (emission scenarios, global air–ocean circulation, regional circulation, and biotic response). This approach has high risk of error propagation and compounding and produces outputs at a coarser scale than conservation decisions. Instead, we advocate identifying land facets—recurring landscape units with uniform topographic and soil attributes—and designing reserves and linkages for diversity and interspersion of these units. This coarse-filter approach would conserve the arenas of biological activity, rather than the temporary occupants of those arenas. Integrative, context-sensitive variables, such as insolation and topographic wetness, are useful for defining land facets. Classification procedures such as k-means or fuzzy clustering are a good way to define land facets because they can analyze millions of pixels and are insensitive to case order. In regions lacking useful soil maps, river systems or riparian plants can indicate important facets. Conservation planners should set higher representation targets for rare and distinctive facets. High interspersion of land facets can promote ecological processes, evolutionary interaction, and range shift. Relevant studies suggest land-facet diversity is a good surrogate for today’s biodiversity, but fails to conserve some species. To minimize such failures, a reserve design based on land facets should complement, rather than replace, other approaches. Designs based on land facets are not biased toward data-rich areas and can be applied where no maps of land cover exist.”

Using GIS to Investigate Spatial and Temporal Variations in Upland Rainfall

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, GIScience, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on July 6, 2010 at 6:43 am

Transactions in GIS, Volume 14 Issue 3, June 2010, p 265-282)

Emma JS Ferranti, J Duncan Whyatt, Roger J Timmis, and Gemma Davies

“A method is presented for conditional analysis of spatial and temporal (1961–2007) variations in rainfall under different synoptic situations and different geographic sub-regions, using Cumbria in NW England as a study area. A daily synoptic typing scheme, the Lamb Weather Catalogue, was applied to identify rainfall under three different weather types: south-westerly (SW), westerly (W) and cyclonic (C). Topographic descriptors developed using GIS were used to classify rain gauges into six geographic sub-regions: coastal, windward-lowland, windward-upland, leeward-upland, leeward-lowland, secondary upland. Examining temporal rainfall trends associated with different weather types, in different geographic sub-regions, reveals useful information on changes in rainfall processes. The total rainfall under SW and W weather types is increasing, particularly in upland regions. The increase in SW rainfall is driven by more frequent wet-days, whereas the increase in W rainfall is driven by increases in both wet-day frequency and yield per wet-day. The rainfall under C weather types is decreasing. Combining GIS and synoptic climatology gives insights into rainfall processes under a changing climate. The conditional analysis method can be applied at both local and regional scales, and its success is largely due to the ability of GIS to integrate, visualise, and efficiently model spatial data.”

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment System Developed

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on July 1, 2010 at 11:28 am

The National Institute of Environmental Research announced that it developed a climate change adaptation toolkit, which is used to assess climate change effect and analyze vulnerability. Combining information on climate, air environment, society, economy and geography, the toolkit enables local governments to analyze the climate change effect and vulnerability without difficulty.

Based on the classification by UK Climate Impacts Program, the system makes 16 categories and analyzes information by si (city), gun (county) and gu (borough). The 16 categories include agriculture/livestock industry, horticulture/forestry, water resources/water quality, industry, health, ecosystem, air quality, fisheries, tourism/leisure, marine ecology, disaster, transport/communication, energy, construction/public works/architecture, education, and governance/public sector.

In addition, linked to the Geographic Information Systems, it can provide various information and assessment result with regard to vulnerability efficiently. Vulnerability index calculation system enables users to analyze vulnerability in a convenient way.

According to the National Action Plan on Climate Change Adaptation (December 2008), climate change vulnerability map by each sector will be completed until 2012. With the use of the assessment system, damage can be minimized by preparing for sectors which have significant climate change vulnerability.

The climate change adaptation toolkit based on GIS obtained a patent in March 2010 and the system will be distributed to related departments and local governments with conducting user training program.

[Source: Republic of Korea Ministry of Environment press release]

Spatial Information Technologies for Climate Change Impact on Ecosystems: Detecting and Mapping Invasive Weeds in the Rio Grande River System of South Texas

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on June 30, 2010 at 11:23 am

2010 International Climate Change Adaptation Conference: Climate Adaptation Futures

29 June 2010 to 1 July 2010, Australia

S Sriharan, J Everitt, and C Yang

“Global warming is projected to have immense effects on freshwater and wetland ecosystems. Wetlands and aquatic ecosystems are quite vulnerable to climate change. Exotic invasive weeds are a serious problem in the Rio Grande River system of Texas. The Rio Grande is one of the longest river systems in the United States. The river extends 3,040 km from its source in the San Juan Mountains of Colorado to the mouth at the Gulf of Mexico on the United States- Mexico border in extreme south Texas. The Rio Grande River system of Texas has serious problems due to exotic invasive weeds such as waterhyacinth [Eichhornia crassipes (Mort.) Solms.], [Hydrilla verticillata (L. F.), Royle], saltcedar (Tamarix chinensis Lour.), giant reed (Arundo donax L.), Eurasian watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum L.), and wild taro [Colocasia esculenta (L) Schott]. These invasive plant species have displaced much of the original native vegetation. Water shortages in the Rio Grande have been exacerbated by the invasion and spread of the above-mentioned weeds. Remote sensing techniques offer potentially timely, cost-effective means of obtaining reliable data for these areas.

“The scientists at the USDA ARS Laboratory in Weslaco, Texas, in cooperation with the senior author at Virginia State University, have been conducting research on the utilization of aerial photography and videography integrated with global positioning system (GPS) and geographic information system (GIS) technologies for detecting and mapping exotic invasive weeds in the Rio Grande system from the mouth of the river the near Boca Chica in extreme south Texas to El Paso in west Texas.This paper describes the results of several aerial remote sensing studies conducted from 2002 to 2006 on the Rio Grande River from its mouth near Brownsville in south Texas to El Paso in west Texas. Aerial photography and videography were used to detect plant species. Aerial imagery was obtained under sunny conditions with photographic and videographic systems mounted vertically in either a Cessna 206 or Cessna 404 Titan aircraft. Video imagery was integrated with GPS and GIS technologies to develop distribution maps denoting infested locations of the invasive weeds. Our findings indicated that approximately 1,285 river-km of the Rio Grande was plagued by infestations of waterhyacinth, hydrilla, saltcedar, giant reed, Eurasian watermilfoil, and wild taro. The aquatic species, waterhyacinth and hydrilla infested approximately 225 river-km in the extreme southern portion of the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. The wetland species saltcedar infested approximately 460 river-km from Lajitatas to near El Paso in west Texas. Giant reed infested approximately 600 river-km along the Rio Grande from near Laredo in south Texas to near Presidio in west Texas. Eurasian watermilfoil occurred along a 66 river-km area from below Amistad Reservoir near Del Rio to north of Eagle pass in southwest Texas. The joint use of these technologies provides valuable information on the distribution of invasive weeds in the Rio Grande system along the Texas-Mexico border. It is anticipated that these technologies can be used for a variety of natural resource management of ecosystems, wetlands, coasts, and deltas.”

New e-Book: Climate Change is a Geographic Problem

In Books, Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on June 28, 2010 at 8:24 am

Climate Change is a Geographic Problem: The Geographic Approach to Climate Change

Jack Dangermond and Matt Artz, ESRI

June 2010

“Climate change is a geographic problem, and solving it takes a geographic solution. A GIS-based framework for climate science gives us hope. With it we can gain a scientific understanding of Earth’s systems at a truly global scale and make thoughtful, informed design decisions that ultimately allow humans and nature to coexist more harmoniously.”

Spatial Analysis of Gypsy Moth Populations in Sardinia using Geostatistical and Climate Models

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Statistics on June 21, 2010 at 10:21 am

Agricultural and Forest Entomology, Published Online 07 Jun 2010

Arturo Cocco, Antonio Q. Cossu, Patrizia Erre, Giovanni Nieddu, and Pietro Luciano

“Spatial fluctuations of the Sardinian population of the gypsy moth Lymantria dispar (L.) (Lepidoptera: Lymantriidae) were characterized using geostatistical and climate models. Data on gypsy moth egg mass abundance recorded at 282 permanent monitoring sites from 1980 to 2004 were incorporated in a geographic information system with the vegetational, geomorphological and pedological features of the sites. Statistical analyses revealed that the relative outbreak frequency was related to the predominant host tree, slope and elevation of the monitoring sites, whereas there was no correlation between outbreak frequency and exposure and soil type. By using bioclimatic modelling, probability maps of gypsy moth outbreaks were generated. The model identified a probability surface with climatic conditions favourable to gypsy moth outbreaks and thus potentially subject to defoliation. The maps included 92 sites where outbreaks never occurred, suggesting that the Sardinian climate may not be a determinant factor for gypsy moth outbreaks. The geostatistical method cokriging with outbreak frequency as a covariate was found to be the most suitable technique to estimate gypsy moth egg mass abundance. Semivariograms showed spatial correlation of egg mass abundance within the range 18.5–53 km. The results obtained were used to create regional gypsy moth distribution maps by cokriging, which demonstrated the outbreak foci and different infestation levels at each monitoring area. These results can help to delimit the treatment areas and develop rational gypsy moth management programmes.”

Using Citizen Science and GIS Technology to Connect the Local to the Global

In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, GIS on June 21, 2010 at 8:26 am

ESRI Education User Conference

Keynote Address

Saturday, 10 July 2010, during the Plenary Session, 8:30 a.m.–noon

Mark Chandler, Ph.D., International Director of Research for Earthwatch Institute

‘People today are challenged with understanding how their decisions impact the local community as well as their impact on populations and places far away. The common axiom “think global, act local” reflects the need to juggle the local context of our actions with the larger global context. This is true in respect to issues such as food supply, energy use, water, biodiversity, and our role in natural disasters. And this concept of scale is important not only because it helps connect our local communities to a greater landscape and ultimately the Earth, but also because it helps direct the scope of the social institutions and efforts that should be involved.

Dr. Chandler will discuss these points and how powerful learning can happen when people are directly engaged in projects that operate at multiple scales—and are connected via tools such as GIS and GPS technologies. See examples of how different audiences can participate in field-based projects involving sustainable landscapes, agriculture, and more. Hear how addressing problems with scientific investigation can stimulate interest and thinking about the connection between the communities people call home and the greater world in which they live.

Methodology for Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Drought using Large-scale Gridded Data

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis, Statistics, Temporal Analysis on June 18, 2010 at 6:21 am

Geophysical Research Abstracts, Vol. 12, EGU2010-12703-1, 2010

Gerald A Corzo P, Marjolein H.J. van Huijgevoort, and Henny A.J. van Lanen

“In recent years, there is an increased understanding of the importance of drought, in particular due to global change. For a good understanding of historic droughts, and to evaluate the impact of future global change scenarios, more advanced techniques to account for spatio-temporal variability are required. So far, methodologies to characterize spatio-temporal patterns of large-scale drought (e.g. global scale) are still limited. This explorative work presents methodological processes developed to analyze a gridded dataset with forcing data that has been compiled through the EU-FP6 WATCH project (0.5o, daily, 1958-2001). Two new methodologies are proposed: the Standardized Clustered Precipitation Index (SCPI), which quantifies monthly precipitation changes, and the Cluster Precipitation Distributions (CPDs) which consider the spatial reduction of continuous period without daily rain. Both methods are used to characterize meteorological drought. The SCPI methodology is an extension of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) that incorporates a multivariate clustering analysis to determine the spatial changes of the index and the rate of change. The SPIs are calculated based on a monthly moving average of a specified length (e.g. 30 days), and their variability is calculated in k years to identify a change in the SPI levels. To determine this k-years change, a monthly spatial pattern of severity is calculated in the time frame defined in the calculation of the SPI. A second method is presented (i.e. CPD) to prepare for analysis of hydrological drought in a next phase of this research. CPD identifies spatial regions where probabilities of longer periods of non-precipitation events are present. These probability distributions, however, do not consider geographical positioning which may affect drought analysis of a particular region. Therefore, the probabilities of non-precipitation events are grouped using a clustering technique that allows for geo-referenced information. The two methodologies provide important information for principles that can be used to develop methods to evaluate meteorological and subsequently hydrological drought from different types of large-scale grid-based models (e.g. RCMs, LSHMs, GHMs).”

Seasonal Rainfall Variability in Guinea Savanna, Nigeria: A GIS Approach

In Climate Change, GIS, Spatial Analysis, Statistics, Temporal Analysis on June 17, 2010 at 9:04 am

International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, Volume: 1; Issue: 3; 2009

Ayansina Ayanlade

“Purpose – This paper aims to use geographical information systems kriging interpolation technique to examine and map the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall in Guinea Savanna of Nigeria.

“Design/methodology/approach – Rainfall data, for the periods between 1970 and 2000, are collected from the archives of the Nigerian Meteorological Services, Oshodi Lagos. In this paper, rainfall is considered as the primary and input for crop yield. It is observed that the most important climatic element is rainfall; particularly inter-annual variation and the spatiotemporal distribution of rainfall. Three spatial interpolation methods are chosen for this research work: inverse distance weighting method and the spline (completely regularized) as the determinist methods; and ordinary kriging as the stochastic methods. In order to analyze the interpolation quality, an evaluation by cross validation has been carried out. Ordinary kriging method was discovered suitable for this paper because it allows the sharpest interpolation rainfall data and is the most representative.

“Findings – The results of the analysis show that rainfall varies both in time and space. Rainfall variability is very high in most of Northern Guinea Savanna (e.g. Yola, Minna, and Ilorin) with values of coefficient of variation (CV) between 26 and 49 percent while in Southern Guinea Savanna, the CV is very low especially, in Enugu (9 percent), and Shaki (8 percent). These anomalies (such as decline in annual rainfall, change in the peak and retreat of rainfall and false start of rainfall) are detrimental to crop germination and yield, resulting in little or no harvest at the end of the season.

“Originality/value – The paper concludes that geospatial techniques are powerful tools that should be explored further for realistic analysis of the effects of seasonal variability in rainfall.”

Fine-scale Determinants of Butterfly Species Richness and Composition in a Mountain Region

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on June 15, 2010 at 9:18 am

Journal of Biogeography, Date: May 2010

Javier Gutiérrez Illán, David Gutiérrez, Robert J. Wilson

“Aim: Global patterns of species richness are often considered to depend primarily on climate. We aimed to determine how topography and land cover affect species richness and composition at finer scales.

“Location: Sierra de Guadarrama (central Iberian Peninsula).

“Methods: We sampled the butterfly fauna of 180 locations (89 in 2004, 91 in 2005) at 600–2300 m elevation in a region of 10800 km2. We recorded environmental variables at 100-m resolution using GIS, and derived generalized linear models for species density (number of species per unit area) and expected richness (number of species standardized to number of individuals) based on variables of topoclimate (elevation and insolation) or land cover (vegetation type, geology and hydrology), or both (combined). We evaluated the models against independent data from the alternative study year. We also tested for differences in species composition among sites and years using constrained ordination (canonical correspondence analysis), and used variation partitioning analyses to quantify the independent and combined roles of topoclimate and land cover.

“Results: Topoclimatic, land cover and combined models were significantly related to observed species density and expected richness. Topoclimatic and combined models outperformed models based on land cover variables, showing a humped elevational diversity gradient. Both topoclimate and land cover made significant contributions to models of species composition.

“Main conclusions: Topoclimatic factors may dominate species richness patterns in regions with pronounced elevational gradients, as long as large areas of natural habitat remain. In contrast, both topoclimate and land cover may have important effects on species composition. Biodiversity conservation in mountainous regions therefore requires protection and management of natural habitats over a wide range of topoclimatic conditions, which may assist in facilitating range shifts and alleviating declines in species richness related to climate change.”

Illustrating Uncertainty in Climate Change with Variable Flood Levels in ArcScene and VTP

In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS, Visualization on June 10, 2010 at 12:11 pm

Bang Tran, Sovann Prey, and Taisha Waeny

“According to the Gippsland Coastal Board final report, 2009 “Little doubt now remains that global climates are changing. It is, however; important to distinguish between ‘natural’ variability in weather patterns caused by phenomena such as El Nino (Southern Oscillation), which causes extended periods of below average rainfall in south eastern Australia on a semi-cyclic basis, and climate change resulting from human-induced changes to atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases. The drought experienced in Gippsland over recent years was more closely related to a mild El Nino event (BoM, 2007) than a direct manifestation of global climate change, although it may, to a small extent be exacerbated by an ‘overprint’ of changed global climatic conditions”.

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was established in 1988 by the United Nations’ Environment Program and the World Meteorological Organization. It is responsible for providing the international community with authoritative advice on scientific, technical and economic issues relating to climate change.

“The aim of this research is to visually illustrate the uncertainty in Climate Change flood zones for three cases with differing water flood levels at 1m, 2m and 3m using 3D Modeling. This was chosen in response to the pressing issue of uncertainty within Climate Change.”

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, Design, Environmental Science, Quotes, Spatial Analysis on June 9, 2010 at 10:32 am

“It is not enough just to assess an installation’s impact on the environment; one must also assess the impact of a changing environment on the installation. “

– Cleo Paskal, Columnist and Adjunct Professor, Global Change, SCMS, Kochi, India [source]

Postdoctoral Research Associate, USC: “Climate Change in the Southern California Bight: Integrating Science and Societal Implications”

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on June 8, 2010 at 10:17 am

USC’s College of Letters Arts and Sciences is seeking a Postdoctoral Research Associate to join its team.

The Biological Sciences Department (BISC) of the College of Letters, Arts & Sciences seeks a Postdoctoral Research Associate to participate in a 3 year USC College-supported project entitled, “Climate Change in the Southern California Bight: Integrating Science and Societal Implications” (full project description is available upon request). The Postdoctoral Research Associate will be responsible for helping to identify, assimilate, synthesize and interpret various data streams relevant to climate change in the Southern California Bight with the aim of developing a comprehensive data base/ clearinghouse for this information which would be made broadly available.

The successful candidate will work directly with the PIs, David Hutchins and Douglas Capone of the Marine Environmental Biology (MEB) Section of the Department of Biological Sciences as well as in conjunction with Data Integration and Modeling teams composed of faculty from MEB, Earth Sciences, and the USC GIS Research Laboratory as well as several faculty from other allied departments. The Postdoctoral Research Associate will be expected to participate in a series of annual workshops with the teams aimed at identifying data needs and developing the web-based clearinghouse for these data. In addition, the successful applicant will have the opportunity to be involved in a number of innovative outreach and education activities that will be sponsored as part of this project

Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change

In Climate Change, Science on June 8, 2010 at 9:28 am

…a new study from the National Research Council…

“Substantially reducing greenhouse gas emissions will require prompt and sustained efforts to promote major technological and behavioral changes, says Limiting the Magnitude of Future Climate Change, another of the new books. Although limiting emissions must be a global effort to be effective, strong U.S. actions to reduce emissions will help encourage other countries to do the same.

“In addition, the U.S. could establish itself as a leader in developing and deploying the technologies necessary to limit and adapt to climate change.”

Hydrologic Response and Watershed Sensitivity to Climate Warming in California’s Sierra Nevada

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on June 3, 2010 at 5:43 am

PLoS ONE 5(4): April 1, 2010

Sarah E. Null, Joshua H. Viers, and Jeffrey F. Mount

“This study focuses on the differential hydrologic response of individual watersheds to climate warming within the Sierra Nevada mountain region of California. We describe climate warming models for 15 west-slope Sierra Nevada watersheds in California under unimpaired conditions using WEAP21, a weekly one-dimensional rainfall-runoff model. Incremental climate warming alternatives increase air temperature uniformly by 2°, 4°, and 6°C, but leave other climatic variables unchanged from observed values. Results are analyzed for changes in mean annual flow, peak runoff timing, and duration of low flow conditions to highlight which watersheds are most resilient to climate warming within a region, and how individual watersheds may be affected by changes to runoff quantity and timing. Results are compared with current water resources development and ecosystem services in each watershed to gain insight into how regional climate warming may affect water supply, hydropower generation, and montane ecosystems. Overall, watersheds in the northern Sierra Nevada are most vulnerable to decreased mean annual flow, southern-central watersheds are most susceptible to runoff timing changes, and the central portion of the range is most affected by longer periods with low flow conditions. Modeling results suggest the American and Mokelumne Rivers are most vulnerable to all three metrics, and the Kern River is the most resilient, in part from the high elevations of the watershed. Our research seeks to bridge information gaps between climate change modeling and regional management planning, helping to incorporate climate change into the development of regional adaptation strategies for Sierra Nevada watersheds.”

Climate Change Risks and Conservation Implications for a Threatened Small-Range Mammal Species

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on June 2, 2010 at 12:31 pm

PLoS ONE 5(4): April 29, 2010

Naia Morueta-Holme, Camilla Fløjgaard, and Jens-Christian Svenning

“Climate change is already affecting the distributions of many species and may lead to numerous extinctions over the next century. Small-range species are likely to be a special concern, but the extent to which they are sensitive to climate is currently unclear. Species distribution modeling, if carefully implemented, can be used to assess climate sensitivity and potential climate change impacts, even for rare and cryptic species.”

Advancing the Science of Climate Change

In Climate Change, Science on May 26, 2010 at 10:23 am

…a new study from the National Research Council…

“The compelling case that climate change is occurring and is caused in large part by human activities is based on a strong, credible body of evidence, says Advancing the Science of Climate Change, one of the new books. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never “closed,” the book emphasizes that multiple lines of evidence support scientific understanding of climate change.

“The core phenomenon, scientific questions, and hypotheses have been examined thoroughly and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations, the book says.”

Impact Assessment of Future Climate Change for the Blue Nile Basin, Using a RCM Nested in a GCM

In Climate Change, Modeling on May 25, 2010 at 6:51 am

Nile Basin Water Engineering Scientific Magazine, Vol.2, 2009

Eman S.A. Soliman, M. A. Aty Sayed, and Marc Jeuland

“This paper establishes a basis for evaluation of climate changes impacts within the Blue Nile River subbasin, using the RegCM3 Regional Climate Model to simulate interactions between the land surface and climatic processes. The RegCM3 model nested with the ECHAM5 General Circulation Model (Max Planck institute) were applied and the obtained results are presented.. The results were then fed as inputs to the Nile Forecast System NFS) (a distributed rainfall runoff model of the Nile Basin) and the interaction between the climatic and hydrological processes on the land surface was fully coupled. Rainfall patterns and evaporation rates were generated using RegCM3, and the resulting runoff and Blue Nile streamflow patterns were simulated using the NFS. The results, obtained from the RegCM3 climate model, were compared to the observational datasets for precipitation and temperature from the Climate Research Unit (UK) and the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center GPCP (USA) for the period 1985-2000. The validity of the stream-flow predictions from the NFS is assessed using historical gauge records. Finally, the modeling results of the A1B emissions scenario of the IPCC for the years 2034-2055 are presented. The results indicated that the future changes in rainfall might vary over different areas of the Upper Blue Nile catchment in Ethiopia. This suggested that there might be a good reason for developing climate models with finer spatial resolution than the commonly used GCMs.”

Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change

In Climate Change, Science on May 25, 2010 at 5:47 am

…a new study from the National Research Council…

“Reducing vulnerabilities to impacts of climate change that the nation cannot, or does not, avoid is a highly desirable strategy to manage and minimize the risks, says the third book, Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change. Some impacts–such as rising sea levels, disappearing sea ice, and the frequency and intensity of some extreme weather events like heavy precipitation and heat waves–are already being observed across the country.

“The book notes that policymakers need to anticipate a range of possible climate conditions and that uncertainty about the exact timing and magnitude of impacts is not a reason to wait to act. In fact, it says boosting U.S. adaptive capacity now can be viewed as “an insurance policy against an uncertain future,” while inaction could increase risks, especially if the rate of climate change is particularly large.”

Application of GIS in Temperature Management

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on May 24, 2010 at 7:55 am

Indian Journal of Science and Technology, Vol. 3 No. 4 (Apr. 2010)

Gholam Reza Janbaz Ghobadi and Mehrdad Ahmadi Kamarposhti

“In recent decades, because of computer technologies development, Geographic Information System (GIS) makes possible to keep reference land data and to combine different data set, effectively. GIS technology enables to depict events, predicting results and preparing the maps clearly.

“Use of GIS in climatology is quickly developing. A big center of producing climate data such as Nova is the pioneers of GIS application in climatology. The samples of climate studies had practical and operational using GIS. For an example, Dyras et al. (2003) have made a model for predicting and informing road ice bounds in Europe. Baban and Parry (2001) used GIS for establishing wind turbines.”

Climate Change Presentations at the 2010 ESRI International User Conference

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on May 19, 2010 at 11:44 am

National Academy of Sciences to Release Three Reports in the ‘America’s Climate Choices’ Study on May 19

In Climate Change, Science on May 17, 2010 at 7:23 am

Three reports in the America’s Climate Choices study will be released May 19:


Advancing the Science of Climate Change
Limiting the Magnitude of Climate Change
Adapting to the Impacts of Climate Change

At a public briefing to discuss the reports, Ralph J. Cicerone, president of the National Academy of Sciences, will deliver opening remarks, and members of the panels that wrote the reports will discuss their recommendations and take questions. The briefing starts at 10 a.m. EDT Wednesday, May 19, in the Lecture Room of the National Academy of Sciences building at 2100 C Street, NW, Washington, DC. Those unable to attend the event can watch the live webcast at The National Academies website.

Estimate of Peatland Distribution in Estonia Using an Integrated GIS/RS Approach

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery on May 11, 2010 at 7:43 am

Proceedings of the 33rd International Symposium on Remote Sensing of Environment, 2009

Gardi C, Sommer S, Seep K, and Montanarella L.

“Determination of the spatial extent of peatland is important for the evaluation of soil carbon stocks. At European Level there is a need to provide accurate and updated estimate of the distribution of peatland. Comparison of national data with EU wide land cover mapping shows that there is limited compatibility between the different data sets. The aim of the present study is to test a methodology of standardized mapping and monitoring of peatlands at regional level (national to supra-national bio-climatic regions) based on the enhanced integration of existing thematic maps through GIS analysis in combination with remote sensing, using Estonia as study case. Existing national maps and field inventory of Estonian peatlands have been used for a GIS based evaluation of peatland relevant information contained in Corine Land Cover. Remote sensing has been employed in 2 ways: a multispectral approach using Landsat TM and a phenology oriented time series analysis of SPOT VEGETATION NDVI both implemented for the entire territory of Estonia. The remote sensing results are evaluated against the existing high resolution Estonian map of peatlands. In the case study it could be shown that peatlands are both spectrally and phenologically clearly distinct from other land cover types and therefore have a good potential to allow semiautomated mapping over large areas with relatively high accuracy, which lays the basis for efficient montoring and mapping of peatland change.”

Video: The Global Carbon Cycle from an Atmospheric Perspective

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling, Video on May 10, 2010 at 1:03 pm

Climate Projection Data Download: Characteristically Generated Monthly Climate Data using Downscaled Climate Model Data from the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on May 5, 2010 at 8:58 am

“This dataset was generated by a generalized downscaling and data generation method that takes the outputs of a General Circulation Model and allows the stochastic generation of daily weather data that are to some extent characteristic of future climatologies. Such data can then be used to drive any impacts model that requires daily (or otherwise aggregated) weather data.

A subset of the climate models and scenario runs carried out for 2007′s Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) for two time slices (2030 and 2050) was used in this process.”

Scientists to Speak on Global Environmental Issues

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery on May 5, 2010 at 7:28 am

Redlands Forum Presents Woods Hole Research Center Scientists William Brown and Josef Kellndorfer

From mapping the Amazon River basin to promoting global climate change policy, scientists at the Woods Hole Research Center (the Center) are focused on keeping Planet Earth healthy. The next Redlands Forum event will feature William Brown, Ph.D., president and CEO of the Center, who will describe how the Massachusetts-based institute is working to help protect the global environment. His colleague, Josef Kellndorfer, Ph.D., associate scientist at the Center, will also speak. The presentations will take place in Redlands at the ESRI Conference Center, 380 New York Street, on Wednesday, May 19, at 5:30 p.m.

Brown will give an overview of the Center’s global activities with the talk Woods Hole Research Center: Science, Policy, and Education for a Healthy Planet. Then, Kellndorfer will drill down to describe a research project that uses satellite imagery technology to map the world’s forests. His presentation has the intriguing title Shooting with the Radar Gun: Another Radiological Tool to Diagnose and Monitor Patient Earth.

“Our planet’s climate and ecosystems are changing, and the scientists at the Center are leading authorities in understanding the causes and consequences of this as well as offering solutions that foster a healthy planet,” said Brown. With projects in the Amazon, the Arctic, Africa, Russia, Alaska, Canada, and New England, the Center collaborates with partners ranging from local nongovernmental organizations and research centers to national governments and the United Nations. Brown’s talk will include examples of the Center’s work around the globe.

Brown joined the Center in February 2010 and previously held posts as president and CEO of the Academy of Natural Sciences in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, the nation’s oldest natural history museum, and as Department of the Interior science advisor during the Clinton administration. He also concurrently serves as chairman of the Global Heritage Fund, president of the Natural Science Collections Alliance, and a trustee of the Academy of Natural Sciences.

Kellndorfer’s research focuses on the monitoring and assessment of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Using geographic information systems (GIS) and remote sensing, he studies land use, land cover, and climate change on a regional and global scale. Before joining the Center, he was an assistant research scientist in the Department of Electrical Engineering and Computer Science at the University of Michigan.

After May 19, the next Redlands Forum event will be a talk on recent projects and legislation affecting both Redlands and California open spaces, which will be presented by Pete Dangermond, president of The Dangermond Group. It will take place Wednesday, June 16, 2010, at 5:30 p.m.

Redlands Forum events are sponsored by ESRI and the University of Redlands through the university’s Town & Gown organization. Admission to both of these events is free. To guarantee seating, attendees should register via the Internet at www.esri.com/culturalseries or by calling 909-748-8011.

[Source: ESRI press release]

Interdisciplinary Geospatial Informatics Post Doc Position at Aarhus University, Denmark

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on May 4, 2010 at 1:39 pm

An interdisciplinary Post Doc position is available at Aarhus University, Denmark, starting August 2010 or later. The responsibilities of the Post Doc will include work on geospatial problems on the boundary between computer science and biology, more specifically between algorithms and ecology/biodiversity. Modest teaching responsibilities may also be required. The Post Doc will be affiliated with the Danish National Research Foundation Center MADALGO (Center for Massive Data Algorithmics – www.madalgo.au.dk) under the supervision of computer science Professor Lars Arge (person.au.dk/en/large@cs), but will also work extensively with researchers in the Ecoinfomatics & Biodiversity group at the Department of Biological Sciences under the supervision of Professor Jens-Christian Svenning (person.au.dk/en/svenning@biology).The Post Doc should focus on problems in relation to computationally efficient use of modern detailed (and thus massive) topographic data in various global-change-relevant modeling applications. These problems include the computation of fine-resolution topography-derived variables on a global scale, as well as local- and global-scale flooding scenario modeling and impact assessment.

Applications are welcomed from computer science researchers with clearly demonstrated skills in the design, analysis and implementation of algorithms (preferably also with I/O-efficient algorithms), as well as from geoinformatics or biology researchers with clearly demonstrated skills in ecoinformatics, GIS, and programming. Researchers with interdisciplinary research experience will be preferred. Applicants should apply by uploading a letter of interest and a CV, as well as indicate at least two names of references for recommendations, using the application form available at www.madalgo.au.dk. To be assured of full consideration, applications must arrive by May 17, 2010. Applications will be considered until the position is filled.

For further information contact Professor Lars Arge at large@madalgo.au.dk or Professor Jens-Christian Svenning at svenning@biology.au.dk.

Clark Labs Releases New Global Monthly Data Archive for Image Time Series Analysis

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, GIS on April 29, 2010 at 10:17 am

Clark Labs is pleased to announce they have released a DVD archive of monthly global NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) and EVI (Enhanced Vegetation Index) MODIS data. The MODIS data were processed by NASA Goddard from the Terra sensor projected on a 0.05 degree climate modeling grid. The DVD includes over 3 gigabytes of data from the MOD13C2 product, for the years 2000 – 2009, formatted and preprocessed for immediate input into the IDRISI GIS and Image Processing software. None of the original values were altered. The DVD is available for only $30 plus shipping and handling.

Historical data is crucial for the analysis of earth trends and dynamics, particularly for change detection and prediction and long-term image series analysis. Time series analysis is critical for exploring such global events as El Nino and related sea surface temperature anomalies and impacts. Although such data is a valuable resource for analysts, publicly available and typically free, a significant amount of effort must be invested before the data is ready for analysis. Files for each time period, typically at sizes of over 100 mb, must be downloaded individually. The data then needs to be imported and pre-processed. This archive allows analysts and researchers to bypass the tedious yet necessary data download and preparation process, freeing up more effort for a project’s analytical goals.

This data archive is a particularly significant resource as input for the Earth Trends Modeler application within the IDRISI software. Earth Trends Modeler, an application for the exploration and analysis of image time series data, includes a coordinated suite of data mining tools and a variety of techniques for the extraction of global trends and the impacts of climate change. The new data archive can immediately be used within Earth Trends Modeler.

The DVD also includes monthly atmospheric temperature data from Remote Sensing System (RSS), processed from the Microwave and Advanced Microwave Sounding Units on NOAA polar-orbiting platforms and in a 2.5 degree grid.

Learn more about the Global Monthly Data Archive Series.

[Source: Clark University press release]

Evapotranspiration and Water Use Efficiency in a Chesapeake Bay Wetland under Carbon Dioxide Enrichment

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on April 29, 2010 at 9:03 am

Global Change Biology, Volume 16 Issue 1 , Pages 234-245 (January 2010)

IAHONG LI, JOHN E. ERICKSON, GARY PERESTA, and BERT G. DRAKE

“Wetlands evapotranspire more water than other ecosystems, including agricultural, forest and grassland ecosystems. However, the effects of elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration (Ca) on wetland evapotranspiration (ET) are largely unknown. Here, we present data on 12 years of measurements of ET, net ecosystem CO2 exchange (NEE), and ecosystem water use efficiency (EWUE, i.e. NEE/ET) at 13:00–15:00 hours in July and August for a Scirpus olneyi (C3 sedge) community and a Spartina patens (C4 grass) community exposed to ambient and elevated (ambient+340 μmol mol−1) Ca in a Chesapeake Bay wetland. Although a decrease in stomatal conductance at elevated Ca in the S. olneyi community was counteracted by an increase in leaf area index (LAI) to some extend, ET was still reduced by 19% on average over 12 years. In the S. patens community, LAI was not affected by elevated Ca and the reduction of ET was 34%, larger than in the S. olneyi community. For both communities, the relative reduction in ET by elevated Ca was directly proportional to precipitation due to a larger reduction in stomatal conductance in the control plants as precipitation decreased. NEE was stimulated about 36% at elevated Ca in the S. olneyi community but was not significantly affected by elevated Ca in S. patens community. A negative correlation between salinity and precipitation observed in the field indicated that precipitation affected ET through altered salinity and interacted with growth Ca. This proposed mechanism was supported by a greenhouse study that showed a greater Ca effect on ET in controlled low salinity conditions compared with high salinity. In spite of the differences between the two communities in their responses to elevated Ca, EWUE was increased about 83% by elevated Ca in both the S. olneyi and S. patens communities. These findings suggest that rising Ca could have significant impacts on the hydrologic cycles of coastal wetlands.”

Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Drought and Summer Precipitation in Nepal under Climate Change

In Climate Change, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on April 29, 2010 at 6:31 am

IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science, Volume 6, Session 29, 2009

Madan Sigdel and M. Ikeda

“Agricultural production and water resources in Nepal are highly influenced by precipitation for an entire year. In addition to dominant rainfall during summer monsoon over Nepal (SMRN), drought indices, which were normalized with the mean rainfall, were analyzed in association with large-scale atmospheric patterns using various statistical analyses. The indices at 3-month and 12-month represent agricultural and hydrological time scales, respectively. A dominant oscillation in SMRN exists in the range of 2.5–2.8 years indicating El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO): i.e., less rain over eastern and central Nepal during El Nino. The analyses of horizontal patterns of moisture transport regressed on the SMRN revealed that the SMRN variability is more closely related with the moisture flux in a near-surface layer from Bay of Bengal under influences of ENSO rather than the moisture flux from the Arabian Sea. The 12-month drought index is basically equivalent with SMRN. On the other hand, the 3-month index additionally exhibits less rain in winter over western Nepal associated with weak westerly. Therefore, higher probability of the drought risk is suggested for agricultural production in western Nepal. While Indian Ocean Dipole was also investigated, its influence on Nepal is limited. These results suggest to us to prepare more appropriate mitigation methods for high risk of drought under climate change in different ways between western Nepal and the other regions.”

Spatial Heterogeneity in the Shrub Tundra Ecotone in the Mackenzie Delta Region, Northwest Territories: Implications for Arctic Environmental Change

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Imagery on April 26, 2010 at 10:49 am

Ecosystems, Volume 13, Number 2 / March, 2010

Trevor C. Lantz, Sarah E. Gergel and Steven V. Kokelj

“Growing evidence suggests that plant communities in the Low Arctic are responding to recent increases in air temperature. Changes to vegetation, particularly shifts in the abundance of upright shrubs, can influence surface energy balance (albedo), sensible and latent heat flux (evapotranspiration), snow conditions, and the ground thermal regime. Understanding fine-scale variability in vegetation across the shrub tundra ecotone is therefore essential as a monitoring baseline. In this article, we use object-based classifications of airphotos to examine changes in vegetation characteristics (cover and patch size) across a latitudinal gradient in the Mackenzie Delta uplands. This area is frequently mapped as homogenous vegetation, but it exhibits fine-scale variability in cover and patch size. Our results show that the total area and size of individual patches of shrub tundra decrease with increasing latitude. The gradual nature of this transition and its correlation with latitudinal variation in temperature suggests that the position of the shrub ecotone will be sensitive to continued warming. The impacts of vegetation structure on ecological processes make improved understanding of this heterogeneity critical to biophysical models of Low Arctic ecosystems.”

Predicting and Mapping Malaria under Climate Change Scenarios: The Potential Redistribution of Malaria Vectors in Africa

In Climate Change, GIS, Science, Spatial Analysis on April 23, 2010 at 10:15 am

Malaria Journal, 9:111, 23 April 2010

Henri EZ Tonnang, Richard YM Kangalawe, Pius Z Yanda

“Background: Malaria is rampant in Africa and causes untold mortality and morbidity. Vector-borne diseases are climate sensitive and this has raised considerable concern over the implications of climate change on future disease risk. The problem of malaria vectors (Anopheles mosquitoes) shifting from their traditional locations to invade new zones is an important concern. The vision of this study was to exploit the sets of information previously generated by entomologists, e.g. on geographical range of vectors and malaria distribution, to build models that will enable prediction and mapping the potential redistribution of Anopheles mosquitoes in Africa.

“Methods: The development of the modelling tool was carried out through calibration of CLIMEX parameters. The model helped estimate the potential geographical distribution and seasonal abundance of the species in relation to climatic factors. These included temperature, rainfall and relative humidity, which characterized the living environment for Anopheles mosquitoes. The same parameters were used in determining the ecoclimatic index (EI). The EI values were exported to a GIS package for special analysis and proper mapping of the potential future distribution of Anopheles gambiae and Anophles arabiensis within the African continent under three climate change scenarios.

“Results: These results have shown that shifts in these species boundaries southward and eastward of Africa may occur rather than jumps into quite different climatic environments. In the absence of adequate control, these predictions are crucial in understanding the possible future geographical range of the vectors and the disease, which could facilitate planning for various adaptation options.

“Conclusion: Thus, the outputs from this study will be helpful at various levels of decision making, for example, in setting up of an early warning and sustainable strategies for climate change and climate change adaptation for malaria vectors control programmes in Africa. “

Spatial Synchrony in Intertidal Benthic Algal Biomass in Temperate Coastal and Estuarine Ecosystems

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis on April 20, 2010 at 6:00 am

Ecosystems, Volume 13, Number 2 / March, 2010

Daphne van der Wal, Annette Wielemaker-van den Dool and Peter M. J. Herman

“Microphytobenthos plays a vital role in estuarine and coastal carbon cycling and food webs. Yet, the role of exogenous factors, and thus the effects of climate change, in regulating microphytobenthic biomass is poorly understood. We aimed to unravel the mechanisms structuring microphytobenthic biomass both within and across ecosystems. The spatiotemporal distribution of the biomass of intertidal benthic algae (dominated by diatoms) was estimated with an unprecedented spatial extent from time-series of Normalized Differential Vegetation Index (NDVI) derived from a 6-year period of daily Aqua MODIS 250-m images of seven temperate, mostly turbid, estuarine and coastal ecosystems. These NDVI time-series were related to meteorological and environmental conditions. Intertidal benthic algal biomass varied seasonally in all ecosystems, in parallel with meteorology and water quality. Seasonal variation was more pronounced in mud than in sand. Interannual variation in biomass was small, but synchronized year-to-year biomass fluctuations occurred in a number of disjointed ecosystems. Air temperature explained interannual fluctuations in biomass in a number of sites, but the synchrony was mainly driven by the wind/wave climate: high wind velocities reduced microphytobenthic biomass, either through increased resuspension or reduced emersion duration. Spatial variation in biomass was largely explained by emersion duration and mud content, both within and across ecosystems. The results imply that effects on microphytobenthic standing stock can be anticipated when the position in the tidal frame is altered, for example due to sea level rise. Increased storminess will also result in a large-scale decrease of biomass.”

Sustainability in Aeolian Systems

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on April 16, 2010 at 8:27 am

Aeolian Research, Volume 1, Issues 3-4, January 2010, Pages 95-99

Andrew Warren

“I first examine four constraints on sustainability: the technical fix; complexity; uncertainty; environmental change. I then focus on what sustainability might mean in the aeolian context. Examples are drawn from four areas of aeolian activity: agricultural wind erosion, “soil-derived” atmospheric dust, and coastal and, very briefly, inland dunes (where the problem of sustainability is less complicated). Although there is excellent aeolian research on which to build concepts about sustainability, there is very little discussion of sustainability itself. This is partly because the term still needs to be better defined in this context. Changing climate will sharpen our thinking.”

Multitemporal Monitoring of Water Resources Degradation at Al-Azraq Oasis, Jordan, Using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery, Statistics, Temporal Analysis on April 15, 2010 at 7:02 am

International Journal of Global Warming, 2010 – Vol. 2, No.1 pp. 1 – 16

Naser Kloub, Mohammed Matouq, Monzer Krishan, Saeid Eslamian, and Monther Abdelhadi

“The historical topographic maps and satellite images of Al-Azraq Oasis of Jordan were collected from 1953 to 2005. These images are demonstrated for the first time. The satellite land image for 2005 is considered to be the most significant one. This is considered to be the highest level of degradation since 1953. The water degradation in the lake was fitted by linear regression and the best fitting for the calculated surface area for the water can be presented by a polynomial equation.”

Mapping the Vulnerability of the Lisbon Metropolitan Area to Potential Climate Change

In Climate Change, GIS, Social Science on April 15, 2010 at 6:32 am

Presented at the 9th Symposium on GIS and Computer Cartography for Coastal Zone Management, Santa Catarina, Brazil, 2009

Stephanie Duce, Paulo Guilherme Molin, Anand Nandipati, Abdulhakim Abdi, Vanessa Joy Anacta, Ashwin Dhakal, Francis Mwambo, Benedict Mugambi, MD Moniruzzaman, Sushil Bhandari

Adaptation to Climate Change in Regional Australia: A Decision-Making Framework for Modelling Policy for Rural Production

In Climate Change, GIS, Modeling on April 15, 2010 at 6:24 am

Geography Compass, Vol. 5, April 2010

Victor Sposito, Kurt Benke, Claudia Pelizaro, and Ray Wyatt

“A decision-making framework was developed and applied in regional Australia to identify adaptation issues arising in agricultural systems and rural production as a consequence of climate change. Australian agriculture is very susceptible to the adverse impacts of climate change, with major shifts in temperature and rainfall projected. An advantage of the framework is that it provides a suite of tools to aid in the formulation of strategies for sustainable regional development and adaptation. The decision-making framework uses a participatory approach that integrates land suitability analysis with uncertainty analysis and spatial optimisation to determine optimal agricultural land use (at a regional scale) for current and possible future climatic conditions. It thus provides a robust analytic approach to (i) recognise regions under threat of productivity declines, (ii) identify alternative cropping systems better adapted to likely future climatic conditions and (iii) investigate policy actions to improve the sub-optimal situations created by climate change. The decision-making framework and its methods were applied in a case study of the South West Region of Victoria.”

Analyzing the Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater Monitoring Network Design using GIS

In Climate Change, GIS on April 14, 2010 at 11:11 am

AWRA 2010 SPRING SPECIALTY CONFERENCE, Orlando, FL, March 29-31, 2010

Abdelhaleem Khader and Mac McKee

“The global climate is expected to change due to the increase in greenhouse gas concentrations since 1750. According to the IPCC fourth assessment report, global warming is certain and clear. Expected changes in climate include widespread changes in precipitation amounts and aspects of extreme weather including droughts, heavy precipitation, heat waves and intensity of hurricanes. Palestine is among the regions in which drier climates have been observed and are expected to increase. As a result, the need for more intensive water resources management has become more urgent. To be effective, this management requires an efficient and reliable information system to provide data about the water system being managed.This study investigates the impacts of climate change on the Eocene Aquifer, Palestine by utilizing different tools including global climate modeling, groundwater flow modeling, fate and transport modeling, and statistical learning machines. The first step is to predict the future temperature and precipitation based on the different climate change scenarios. Then, these temperature and precipitation values will be used as inputs to the groundwater flow model along with other inputs including soil type, topography, hydrogeology, and land use. After that, the fate and transport of pollutants will be simulated using groundwater flow models and pollutant loading data. The same steps will be repeated to account for uncertainties in aquifer properties (Hydraulic conductivity, dispersivity and NO3decay factor) using latin hypercube sampling and Monte Carlo simulations. Finally, all these models will provide the necessary information for monitoring network design using state of the art, statistical learning machines.The role of geographical information systems (GIS) in this study is vital due to the spatial nature of the problem. First, GIS is used in processing climate change data and preparing them to be used in groundwater flow modeling along with the other data. Then it is used to analyze the results of the groundwater flow model and to prepare them to be used in the fate and transport model along with pollutant loading data. After that, GIS is used in the spatial representation of monitoring network design.”

Topographic Impacts on Wheat Yields under Climate Change: Two Contrasted Case Studies in Europe

In Climate Change, GIS, Modeling on April 13, 2010 at 6:24 am

Theoretical & Applied Climatology, Volume 99, Numbers 1-2 / January, 2010

R. M. Ferrara , P. Trevisiol , M. Acutis , G. Rana , G. M. Richter, and N. Baggaley

“The topography of hilly landscapes modifies crop environment changing the fluxes of water and energy, increasing risk in these vulnerable agriculture systems, which could become more accentuated under climate change (drought, increased variability of rainfall). In order to quantify how wheat production in hilly terrain will be affected by future climate, a newly developed and calibrated micro-meteorological model for hilly terrain was linked to a crop growth simulation model to analyse impact scenarios for different European regions. Distributions of yield and growing length of rainfed winter wheat and durum wheat were generated as probabilistic indices from baseline and low (B2) and high (A2) emission climate scenarios provided from the Hadley Centre Regional Climate Model (HadRM3). We used site-specific terrain parameters for two sample catchments in Europe, ranging from humid temperate (southeast UK) to semi-arid Mediterranean (southern Italy). Results for baseline scenario show that UK winter wheat is mainly affected by annual differences in precipitation and yield distributions do not change with terrain, whilst in the southern Mediterranean climate yield variability is significantly related to a slope × elevation index. For future climate, our simulations confirm earlier predictions of yield increase in the UK, even under the high emission scenario. In the southern Mediterranean, yield reduction is significantly related to slope × elevation index increasing crop failure in drier elevated spots but not in wet years under baseline weather. In scenarios for the future, the likelihood of crop failure rises sharply to more than 60%, and even in wet years, yields are likely to decrease in elevated spots.”

A Spatio-temporal Modelling Framework for Assessing the Fluctuations of Avalanche Occurrence Resulting from Climate Change

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling, Spatial Analysis, Statistics, Temporal Analysis on April 12, 2010 at 12:33 pm

Application to 60 Years of Data in the Northern French Alps

Climatic Change, published online 25 November 2009

Nicolas Eckert, E. Parent, R. Kies, and H. Baya1

“Based on a previous township-scale model, a spatio-temporal framework is proposed to study the fluctuations of avalanche occurrence possibly resulting from climate change. The regional annual component is isolated from the total variability using a two-factor nonlinear analysis of variance. Moreover, relying on a Conditional AutoRegressive sub-model for the spatial effects, the structured time trend is distinguished from the random noise with different time series sub-models including autocorrelative, periodic and change-point models. The hierarchical structure obtained takes into account the uncertainty related to the estimation of the annual component for the quantification of the time trend. Bayesian inference is performed using Monte Carlo simulations. This allows a comparison of the different time series models and the prediction of future activity in an explicit unsteady context. Application to the northern French Alps illustrates the information provided by the model’s different components, mainly the spatial and temporal terms as well as the spatio-temporal fluctuation of the relative risk. For instance, it shows no strong modifications in mean avalanche activity or in the number of winters of low or high activity over the last 60 years. This suggests that climate change has recently had little impact on the avalanching rhythm in this region. However, significant temporal patterns are highlighted: a complex combination of abrupt changes and pseudo-periodic cycles of approximately 15 years. For anticipating the future response of snow avalanches to climate change, correlating them with fluctuations of the constraining climatic factors is now necessary.”

Global Urban Land-use Trends and Climate Impacts

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Social Science on April 12, 2010 at 7:42 am

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 1, Issue 1, October 2009, Pages 89-95

Karen C Seto and J Marshall Shepherd

“In 2008, the global urban population exceeded the nonrural population for the first time in history, and it is estimated that by 2050, 70% of the world population will live in urban areas, with more than half of them concentrated in Asia. Although there are projections of future urban population growth, there is significantly less information about how these changes in demographics correspond with changes in urban extent. Urban land-use and land-cover changes have considerable impacts on climate. It has been well established that the urban heat island effect is more significant during the night than day and that it is affected by the shape, size, and geometry of buildings as well as the differences in urban and rural gradients. Recent research points to mounting evidence that urbanization also affects cycling of water, carbon, aerosols, and nitrogen in the climate system. This review highlights advances in the understanding of urban land-use trends and associated climate impacts, concentrating on peer-reviewed papers that have been published over the last two years.”

Using GIS for Modelling the Impact of Current Climate Trend on the Recharge Area of the S. Susanna Spring, Central Apennines, Italy

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on April 12, 2010 at 7:39 am

Hydrological Processes, Volume 24, Issue 1, Date: 1 January 2010, Pages: 50-64

M. Spadoni, M. Brilli, F. Giustini, M. Petitta

“Though the S. Susanna spring system is one of the biggest water sources in the central Apennines, its hydrogeological dynamics have been scarcely investigated. This study tried to clarify some of the factors controlling the recharge/discharge processes of this spring by modelling the available climate series, water balance equations and new isotopic and quantitative data, using statistical and raster overlay functions embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Oxygen and hydrogen isotopic data were recorded monthly over a 2-year period at the spring itself and in eight rain gauges in Reatini Mountains. The effective infiltration rate was calculated using the Kennessey coefficients and the Turc equation. Finally, the recharge area was identified with the help of an expert evaluation procedure. Local 18O and D versus altitude regression curves were used to validate the digital recharge model by comparing their expected values with the values actually measured.

“Recharge process was framed within the perspective of the ongoing local climate trends. The current discharge rate of 4·1 m3·s-1 is significantly lower than the average value of 5·5 m3·s-1 measured up to the 1980s, confirming the fall in the recharge/discharge rate. The hydrogeological system shows a delayed response, due to an average groundwater residence time in the aquifer, which is estimated to be about 15/20 years on the basis of the offset between calculated and observed isotope data at the main spring. For this reason the system is presently not equilibrated and is gradually changing towards a final equilibrium discharge estimated in about 3·4 m3·s-1.”

Dynamics of Range Margins for Metapopulations under Climate Change

In Climate Change, GIS, Modeling on April 8, 2010 at 11:33 am

Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 22 April 2009, vol. 276, no. 1661, pp. 1415-1420

B.J Anderson, H.R Akçakaya, M.B Araújo, D.A Fordham, E Martinez-Meyer, W Thuiller, and B.W Brook

“We link spatially explicit climate change predictions to a dynamic metapopulation model. Predictions of species’ responses to climate change, incorporating metapopulation dynamics and elements of dispersal, allow us to explore the range margin dynamics for two lagomorphs of conservation concern. Although the lagomorphs have very different distribution patterns, shifts at the edge of the range were more pronounced than shifts in the overall metapopulation. For Romerolagus diazi (volcano rabbit), the lower elevation range limit shifted upslope by approximately 700 m. This reduced the area occupied by the metapopulation, as the mountain peak currently lacks suitable vegetation. For Lepus timidus (European mountain hare), we modelled the British metapopulation. Increasing the dispersive estimate caused the metapopulation to shift faster on the northern range margin (leading edge). By contrast, it caused the metapopulation to respond to climate change slower, rather than faster, on the southern range margin (trailing edge). The differential responses of the leading and trailing range margins and the relative sensitivity of range limits to climate change compared with that of the metapopulation centroid have important implications for where conservation monitoring should be targeted. Our study demonstrates the importance and possibility of moving from simple bioclimatic envelope models to second-generation models that incorporate both dynamic climate change and metapopulation dynamics.”

Trends in Shifting Cultivation and the REDD Mechanism

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Social Science on April 8, 2010 at 7:54 am

Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Volume 1, Issue 2, December 2009, Pages 156-160

Ole Mertz

“In many parts of the forest-agriculture frontiers of the tropics, particularly in Southeast Asia, shifting cultivation is rapidly being transformed to other land uses. Yet, there is rather limited knowledge on the spatial and demographic extent of shifting cultivation and the consequences of the transitions taking place. The proposed mechanism for reduced greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation and degradation (REDD) can be both a challenge and opportunity for shifting cultivators. Very limited literature is available on this dilemma, but a few sources point to benefits from ‘compensated reductions’ if carbon prices are sufficiently high. The main challenges will be to first ensure that poor farmers have access to the products they no longer farm, second, clarify land tenure of disputed farm and fallow land, and third, provide a guarantee that the compensations will be paid and not be lost in systems of poor governance.”

Review of Climate and Cryospheric Change in the Tibetan Plateau

In Climate Change, Geography on April 1, 2010 at 7:22 am

Environmental Research Letters, Volume 5, Number 1, 2010

Shichang Kang , Yanwei Xu , Qinglong You , Wolfgang-Albert Flügel , Nick Pepin, and Tandong Yao

“The Tibetan Plateau (TP), with an average elevation of over 4000 m asl and an area of approximately 2.5 × 106 km2, is the highest and most extensive highland in the world and has been called the ‘Third Pole’. The TP exerts a huge influence on regional and global climate through thermal and mechanical forcing mechanisms. Because the TP has the largest cryospheric extent outside the polar region and is the source region of all the large rivers in Asia, it is widely recognized to be the driving force for both regional environmental change and amplification of environmental changes on a global scale. Within China it is recognized as the ‘Asian water tower’. In this letter, we summarize the recent changes observed in climate elements and cryospheric indicators on the plateau before discussing current unresolved issues concerning climate change in the TP, including the temporal and spatial components of this change, and the consistency of change as represented by different data sources. Based on meteorological station data, reanalyses and remote sensing, the TP has shown significant warming during the last decades and will continue to warm in the future. While the warming is predominantly caused by increased greenhouse gas emissions, changes in cloud amount, snow-albedo feedback, the Asian brown clouds and land use changes also partly contribute. The cryosphere in the TP is undergoing rapid change, including glacier retreat, inconsistent snow cover change, increasing permafrost temperatures and degradation, and thickening of the active layer. Hydrological processes impacted by glacial retreat have received much attention in recent years. Future attention should be paid to additional perspectives on climate change in the TP, such as the variations of climate extremes, the reliability of reanalyses and more detailed comparisons of reanalyses with surface observations. Spatial issues include the identification of whether an elevational dependency and weekend effect exist, and the identification of spatial contrasts in temperature change, along with their causes. These issues are uncertain because of a lack of reliable data above 5000 m asl.”

Connecting People and Place: A New Framework for Reducing Urban Vulnerability to Extreme Heat

In Climate Change, GIS, Social Science on March 30, 2010 at 9:00 am

Environmental Research Letters, Volume 5, Number 1, 2010

Olga VWilhelmi and Mary H Hayden

“Climate change is predicted to increase the intensity and negative impacts of urban heat events, prompting the need to develop preparedness and adaptation strategies that reduce societal vulnerability to extreme heat. Analysis of societal vulnerability to extreme heat events requires an interdisciplinary approach that includes information about weather and climate, the natural and built environment, social processes and characteristics, interactions with stakeholders, and an assessment of community vulnerability at a local level. In this letter, we explore the relationships between people and places, in the context of urban heat stress, and present a new research framework for a multi-faceted, top-down and bottom-up analysis of local-level vulnerability to extreme heat. This framework aims to better represent societal vulnerability through the integration of quantitative and qualitative data that go beyond aggregate demographic information. We discuss how different elements of the framework help to focus attention and resources on more targeted health interventions, heat hazard mitigation and climate adaptation strategies.”

IA-SDSS: A GIS-based Land Use Decision Support System with Consideration of Carbon Sequestration

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on March 30, 2010 at 7:57 am

Environmental Modelling and Software, 25 (4), p.539-553, Apr 2010

Wang, J. / Chen, J. / Ju, W. / Li, M.

“Land use, land use change and forestry (LULUCF) can play a positive role in mitigating global warming by sequestering carbon from the atmosphere into vegetation and soils. Local entities (e.g. local government, community, stockholders) have been making great efforts in enhancing carbon sequestration (CS) of local forests for mitigating global climate change and participating in international carbon-trade promoted by the Kyoto Protocol. Approaches and tools are needed to assess the enhancement of CS through land use changes and proper policy decisions. This paper presents an integrated assessment framework and a spatial decision support system (IA-SDSS) as a tool to support land-use planning and local forestry development with consideration of CS. The IA-SDSS integrates two process-based carbon models, a spatial decision (EMDS) module, a spatial cost-benefit analysis (CBA) module, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) module. It can provide spatially explicit CS information as well as CS-induced economic benefits under various scenarios of the carbon credit market. A case study conducted in Liping County, Guizhou Province, China demonstrated that the IA-SDSS developed in this study is applicable in supporting decision-making on ‘where’ and ‘how’ to adopt forestry land use options in favor of CS.”

GIS/Remote Sensing Techniques for Resource Management and Biodiversity Protection in Mountainous Regions

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery on March 29, 2010 at 8:10 am

Botanica Orientalis: Journal of Plant Science, 6: 93-99 (2009)

John All

“Biodiversity protection in mountainous regions requires effective fact-driven resource management techniques. Geoinformatic tools including GIS and remote sensing can be integrated to provide regional-scale data products across time for use in strategic and management level policymaking. Several principles are discussed to ensure that geoinformatics data and analysis can effectively contribute to resource management by clarifying issues and minimizing misinterpretation. A case study in the Chilean Andes elucidates these principles. Biological impacts of recent climate changes have not been equal across different ecosystems and stable forest ecosystems provide the best response to climate change. Geoinformatics is used to differentiate functional ecological groups and evaluate long-term resilience to climate change.”

Anomaly Detection and Spatio-temporal Analysis of Global Climate System

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on March 29, 2010 at 8:02 am

International Conference on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining, Proceedings of the Third International Workshop on Knowledge Discovery from Sensor Data, Paris, France 2009

Mahashweta Das and Srinivasan Parthasarathy

“Knowledge discovery from temporal, spatial and spatio-temporal data is pivotal for understanding and predicting the behavior of Earth’s ecosystem model. An important influence leaving its impact on the ecosystem is the global climate system. In this paper, the Earth Science data that we have analyzed consists of daily global air temperature and precipitation measurements, aggregated from heterogeneous sensors for fifty years (1950–1999). The enormous amount of data that is available for analysis requires employment of data mining techniques for discovering interesting patterns, detecting significant changes and extracting meaningful insights from the data. Our work considers the problem of detecting anomalous (abnormal or unexpected) behavior in the global climate system, discovering teleconnection patterns and providing consequential insights to the analysts.”

Clark Labs and Conservation International Partner to Develop REDD-Specific Tools within IDRISI Taiga’s Land Change Modeler Application

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography on March 29, 2010 at 7:13 am

Clark Labs and Conservation International (CI) have recently signed a contract to partner in the application of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation) baselines as well as the co-design and development of REDD-specific functionality within the Land Change Modeler application in the IDRISI Taiga GIS and Image Processing system. Clark Labs and CI’s Science and Knowledge Division (formerly the Center for Applied Biodiversity Science) have shared a long-standing collaborative relationship in the testing, application and improvement of spatial modeling tools for REDD projects.

The technical issues of REDD–carbon accounting, additionality, baseline or “business as usual,” leakage and permanence—are complex and require sophisticated tools. Currently, IDRISI Taiga and its Land Change Modeler is the only integrated modeling solution to address many aspects of REDD projects. The Land Change Modeler application was developed by Clark Labs in cooperation with Conservation International in a prior contract to address land cover change and its impacts on biodiversity. Clark Labs, with close collaboration from Conservation International, will enhance the current tools with additional functionality and an automated workflow.

“Conservation International is a major player in the development of REDD projects throughout the world,” stated Stefano Crema, Research Associate at Clark Labs. “Our relationships with organizations such as CI are extremely valuable, as they inform and optimize our development of robust analytical and modeling tools to solve complicated and multi-faceted problems.”

The first step in implementing a REDD project at the site or national level is to estimate the deforestation and/or degradation baseline, i.e., the expected future rate and distribution of change if a REDD project or policy is not employed. Conservation International has worked with the World Bank, CATIE (Centro Agronomico Tropical de Investigacion y Ensenanza) and Clark Labs in the development of the first and second version of the baseline method for the World Bank’s BioCarbon Fund, and it is currently under review by the Voluntary Carbon Standard (VCS) Program for approved methods. Following IPCC guidelines, application of the method requires not only the generation of a precise map of historical deforestation and biomass estimates, but also spatial modeling of the expected future trends of deforestation, a step accomplished using GIS modeling tools. In the case of the BioCF method submissions to VCS, the IDRISI Taiga software was utilized.

Dr. Marc Steininger, Scientific Director of Habitat Monitoring and Climate Change Mitigation Science and Knowledge division of Conservation International explained, “Clark has created a state-of-the-art tool for modeling future land-use change, a key need for assessing future emissions and a requirement for setting emissions baselines for REDD projects.” IDRISI Taiga currently allows for the calibration, validation and creation of maps of expected future deforestation trends, a fairly complex process.

The purpose of this contract between Clark Labs and Conservation International is to design a REDD tool within the Land Change Modeler application of IDRISI to guide the user through the steps of baseline development and directly produce tables and graphics necessary for reporting. This new tool will greatly reduce the time and cost in the development of a deforestation baseline, which many regard as the most challenging technical hurdle in  project development for many prospective REDD projects. The project will also include case studies, testing in different REDD scenarios and production of user guidelines. The tool will be co-designed by CI and Clark Labs. CI will provide all case study data for testing the tool.

“Conservation International greatly values its professional collaboration with Clark Labs,” stated Dr. Steininger. “Their long history of providing low-cost, high capacity analysis tools and training is a testament to their dedication to helping international organizations better manage natural resources and conserve biodiversity.”

It is hoped that the results of this collaboration will allow for wider adoption of REDD project development from the carbon and climate community by providing a more accessible approach to the complex technical challenges.

[Source: Clark Labs press release]

Assessing the Vulnerability of Asian Megadeltas to Climate Change Using GIS

In Books, Climate Change, GIS, Geography, Social Science on March 23, 2010 at 8:15 am

In Coastal Systems and Continental Margins, Volume 13: Coastal and Marine Geospatial Technologies, 2010

Colin D. Woodroffe

“Susceptibility of Asian megadeltas to climate change, including sea-level rise, is investigated using GIS. The Indus, Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna, Irrawaddy, Chao Phraya, Mekong, Red, Pearl, Changjiang, and Huanghe deltas began to form around 6000 years ago and have prograded since. The surface topography of active and abandoned delta plains is examined using digital terrain models derived from Shuttle Radar Topography Mission data and channel morphology is investigated using radar imagery. After delta plains are abandoned they become increasingly dominated by tidal processes. Population density is estimated using gridded world population data but highly variable local microtopography and uncertainty regarding future climate changes preclude detailed vulnerability analysis.”

Using Bioclimatic Envelopes to Identify Temporal Corridors in Support of Conservation Planning in a Changing Climate

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on March 23, 2010 at 7:12 am

Forest Ecology and Management, 258, p.S64-S74, Dec 2009

Rose, N.A. / Burton, P.J.

“Current and expected shifts in climate are threatening global biodiversity and are forcing managers to re-evaluate how they plan for the protection of species and ecosystems. We propose and illustrate a methodology for identifying geographic locations where climate is expected to remain within the tolerances of conservation targets despite a generally warming climate. Using Generation 3 of the Canadian General Circulation Model and ClimateBC (a climate interpolation and downscaling tool), bioclimatic envelopes were developed for three examples of forest conservation targets. The geographic distribution of the resulting envelopes was projected for four timeslices, and then overlaid using ArcMap GIS software. The resultant intersection of points is presumed to indicate locations of persistent climate over the study’s timeframe. Next, a target’s current mapped distribution was overlaid with the distribution of climate expected to remain within its bioclimatic envelope; the intersection of these points is considered the target’s “temporal corridor.” Current locations with persistent climate are thus expected to provide climatic continuity over time, sufficient to sustain the conservation target. Whereas landscape corridors can provide connectivity in geographic space, temporal corridors are projected to provide continuity in climatic space and over time. The identification of such locations facilitates prioritization of sites for the acquisition or designation of protected areas, and provides guidance on where other current management policies and practices can persist. The projection and mapping of temporal corridors is conceptually simple, yet this can be a powerful tool with many potential applications to assist natural resources planners and managers in a rapidly changing environment.”

GIS Helps Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Sugarcane in Swaziland

In Climate Change, GIS on March 22, 2010 at 7:08 am

Agricultural Systems, Volume 103, Issue 2, February 2010, Pages 63-72

J.W. Knox, J.A. Rodríguez Díaz, D.J. Nixon, and M. Mkhwanazi

“The spatial and temporal impacts of climate change on irrigation water requirements and yield for sugarcane grown in Swaziland have been assessed, by combining the outputs from a general circulation model (HadCM3), a sugarcane crop growth model and a GIS. The CANEGRO model (embedded with the DSSAT program) was used to simulate the baseline and future cane net annual irrigation water requirements (IRnet) and yield (t ha−1) using a reference site and selected emissions scenario (SRES A2 and B2) for the 2050s (including CO2-fertilisation effects). The simulated baseline yields were validated against field data from 1980 to 1997. An aridity index was defined and used to correlate agroclimate variability against irrigation need to estimate the baseline and future irrigation water demand (volumetric). To produce a unit weight of sucrose equivalent to current optimum levels of production, future irrigation needs were predicted to increase by 20–22%. With CO2-fertilisation, the impacts of climate change are offset by higher crop yields, such that IRnet is predicted to increase by 9%. The study showed that with climate change, the current peak capacity of existing irrigation schemes could fail to meet the predicted increases in irrigation demand in nearly 50% of years assuming unconstrained water availability.”

A GIS-based Approach to Evaluate Biomass Potential from Energy Crops at Regional Scale

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Spatial Analysis on March 18, 2010 at 7:01 am

Environmental Modelling and Software, 25 (6), p.702-711, Jun 2010

Fiorese, G. / Guariso, G.

“The aim of the paper is to propose a method to maximize energy production from arboreous and herbaceous dedicated crops given the characteristics of the local environment: geo-morphology, climate, natural heritage, current land use. The best energy crops available in the Italian panorama are identified and the problem of maximizing the bioenergy production over an entire regional area is formulated. Each cultivar is thus assigned to the suitable land accounting for sensitive parameters that characterize it and taking into account current land use. The assumption made here is that marginal land and set-asides can be converted to energy crops without altering current practices and cash crops’ production. The method is based on the integration of GIS data (spatially continuous) with data derived from the agricultural census (spatially discrete). We carry out the analysis for Emilia-Romagna, in Northern Italy. The sustainable growth of energy crops, with an optimized network of conversion facilities distributed in the territory, may significantly contribute to the local energy supply and to climate change mitigation.”

ESRI Releases “GIS for Climate Change” Best Practices e-Book, 2nd Edition

In Books, Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on February 25, 2010 at 6:16 am

ESRI has released the second edition of it’s free best practices e-book title “GIS for Climate Change.”  The second edition features a new introduction by ESRI president Jack Dangermond and Dr. James Baker of the William J. Clinton Foundation.  Articles include:

  • The Nature Conservancy Deploys ESRI Technology for Climate Trend Analysis
  • Assessing Economic Biomass Resources in California with GIS
  • Carbon Nation
  • Building an Oasis in the Desert
  • Conserving Bolivia’s Critical Resources
  • Mapping the Solar Potential of Rooftops
  • Harvesting Efficiently Using Mobile GIS
  • Mapping the Ayles Ice Shelf Break
  • National Carbon Sequestration (NatCarb)
  • Renewable Energy—No Longer the Impossible Dream!
  • Westchester County’s Green Map Aids County Global Warming Task Force Plans

Download the free e-book now [PDF]

Post Doc Opprotunity: Remote Sensing in Forest Ecosystems, Istituto Agrario San Michele all’Adige

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, Imagery, Modeling, Science on February 24, 2010 at 7:57 am

“Primary responsibility is to analyse high resolution hyperspectral and Lidar data of forest ecosystems located in the complex alpine region. The scientific activity aims to understand the sensitivity of carbon and nitrogen cycles to climate and land use changes using spatially processbased models, remote sensing and other spatial techniques on a range of different spatial scales. Models development and analysis, parameter estimation, sensitivity analysis and simulations of different scenarios are other objectives.

“Experience with Lidar and hyperspectral data analysis in complex areas and previous work with large database are required. Candidates will be preferably familiar with a programming language such as C, FORTRAN, or MATLAB and have prior experience or training in forest ecosystems classification and analysis of Lidar data for forest structure and biophysical parameter estimation.

“The candidate should also have experience in planning and implementing scientific projects, including writing research proposals, and have a good written scientific record.”

Coastal-Change and Glaciological Map of the Palmer Land Area, Antarctica: 1947 to 2009

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on February 24, 2010 at 7:50 am

By Jane G. Ferrigno, Alison J. Cook, Amy M. Mathie, Richard S. Williams, Jr., Charles Swithinbank, Kevin M. Foley, Adrian J. Fox, Janet W. Thomson, and Jörn Sievers

“Reduction in the area and volume of the two polar ice sheets is intricately linked to changes in global climate, and the resulting rise in sea level could severely impact the densely populated coastal regions on Earth. Antarctica is Earth’s largest reservoir of glacial ice. Melting of the West Antarctic part alone of the Antarctic ice sheet would cause a sea-level rise of approximately 6 meters (m), and the potential sea-level rise after melting of the entire Antarctic ice sheet is estimated to be 65 m (Lythe and others, 2001) to 73 m (Williams and Hall, 1993). The mass balance (the net volumetric gain or loss) of the Antarctic ice sheet is highly complex, responding differently to different climatic and other conditions in each region (Vaughan, 2005). In a review paper, Rignot and Thomas (2002) concluded that the West Antarctic ice sheet is probably becoming thinner overall; although it is known to be thickening in the west, it is thinning in the north. The mass balance of the East Antarctic ice sheet is thought by Davis and others (2005) to be positive on the basis of the change in satellite-altimetry measurements made between 1992 and 2003.

“Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council (1986), in subsequent recommendations by the Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research (SCAR) (1989, 1993), and by the National Science Foundation’s (1990) Division of Polar Programs. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) decided that the archive of early 1970s Landsat 1, 2, and 3 Multispectral Scanner (MSS) images of Antarctica and the subsequent repeat coverage made possible with Landsat and other satellite images provided an excellent means of documenting changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica (Ferrigno and Gould, 1987). The availability of this information provided the impetus for carrying out a comprehensive analysis of the glaciological features of the coastal regions and changes in ice fronts of Antarctica (Swithinbank, 1988; Williams and Ferrigno, 1988). The project was later modified to include Landsat 4 and 5 MSS and Thematic Mapper (TM) images (and in some areas Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) images), RADARSAT images, aerial photography, and other data where available, to compare changes that occurred during a 20- to 25- or 30-year time interval (or longer where data were available, as in the Antarctic Peninsula). The results of the analysis are being used to produce a digital database and a series of USGS Geologic Investigations Series Maps (I-2600) (Williams and others, 1995; Swithinbank and others, 2003a,b, 2004; Ferrigno and others, 2002, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, and in press; and Williams and Ferrigno, 2005) (available online at http://www.glaciers.er.usgs.gov).”

Climate Warming Effects on the Olea Europaea–Bactrocera Oleae System in Mediterranean Islands: Sardinia as an Example

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on February 24, 2010 at 7:35 am

Global Change Biology, April 2009, 15:2874–2884

Luigi Ponti , Q. Antonio Cossu, and Andrew Paul Gutierrez

“Global warming will affect all species but in largely unknown ways, with certain regions such as the Mediterranean Basin and its major islands including Sardinia being particularly vulnerable to desertification. Olive (Olea europaea) is of eco-social importance in the Mediterranean where it was domesticated. This drought-resistant crop and its major pest, the olive fly (Bactrocera oleae), have tight biological links that make them a suitable model system for climate change studies in the Mediterranean. Here a physiologically based weather-driven demographic model of olive and olive fly is used to analyze in detail this plant–pest system in Sardinia under observed weather (10 years of daily data from 48 locations), three climate warming scenarios (increases of 1, 2 and 3 °C in average daily temperature), and a 105-year climate model scenario for the Alghero location (e.g. 1951–2055). GRASS GIS is used to map model predictions of olive bloom dates and yield, total season-long olive fly pupae, and percent fruit attacked by the fly. Island wide simulation data are summarized using multivariate regression. Model calibration with field bloom date data were performed to increase simulation accuracy of olive flowering predictions under climate change. As climate warms, the range of olive is predicted to expand to higher altitudes and consolidate elsewhere, especially in coastal areas. The range of olive fly will extend into previously unfavorable cold areas, but will contract in warm inland lowlands where temperatures approach its upper thermal limits. Consequently, many areas of current high risk are predicted to have decreased risk of fly damage with climate warming. Simulation using a 105-year climate model scenario for Alghero, Sardinia predicts changes in the olive–olive fly system expected to occur if climate continued to warm at the low rate observed during in the past half century.”

More information

National Park Service Climate Change Fellowship Applications Now Being Accepted

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, Science on February 18, 2010 at 3:32 pm

The National Park Service is now accepting applications for the George Melendez Wright Climate Change Fellowship.

The goals of this student fellowship program are to support new and innovative research on climate change impacts to protected areas and to increase the use of scientific knowledge toward resource management. Awards will be made in the range of $5,000 to $20,000 per fellowship for research to be undertaken in calendar year 2010.

Projects may consist of exploratory research that could lead to a larger project funded by other sources, but must result in tangible outcomes that are aimed at informing resource decisions.

Applications are welcomed for proposed research in any area relevant to the natural and cultural resources of units of the National Park System. Examples include projects addressing vulnerability and risk assessment; adaptation strategies; public perceptions and values; and impacts to cultural landscapes and ethnographic resources.

Eligibility: Graduate students or superior upper-level undergraduate students (3.5 GPA or above) currently enrolled in a U.S. accredited college or university.

Deadline: Applications must be received by March 15th; applicants will be notified of selection decisions by April 5th. Fellowship details and an application form are available at the link below.

Work at RFF: Development and Spatial Modeling of a Major Climate Change and Forestry GIS Tool

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Social Science on February 17, 2010 at 10:37 am

Resources for the Future (RFF) seeks a highly-motivated individual to lead the development and spatial modeling of a major climate change and forestry GIS tool for policy makers, stakeholders and investors. Qualified candidates will have a graduate degree in a quantitative social science such as geography, economics, environmental science and management or related field. Must have demonstrated experience with raster datasets and raster-based spatial analysis using large global raster datasets. Familiarity with policy related to climate change, forestry, agriculture, and REDD+ and experience with forestry and land use datasets preferred. Government or peer-reviewed publications using GIS should be mentioned in application materials.

Ohio University Geographers to use GIS to Study Climate Change Adaptation in East Africa

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS on February 16, 2010 at 9:26 am

NSF grant supports innovative approach to community-based environmental research

Environmental experts fear that climate change—rising temperatures and changing rainfall patterns—could have a devastating impact on agricultural and pastoral communities in Africa. An innovative research project led by Ohio University geographers uses Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to draw on the local knowledge of these rural societies, in an effort to explore options for community-based adaptation to climate change.

Ohio University geographer Thomas Smucker and colleagues received a $571,859 grant from the National Science Foundation to support the participatory research project. Communities in Northern Tanzania will work with the research team to collect information on rural livelihoods and environmental management.

Ohio University geographer Elizabeth Wangui conducts field work in the Maasai community in northern Tanzania. Photo courtesy of Thomas Smucker.

The project will use the latest mapping technologies and develop a GIS for integrating field data and climate change projections. GIS-based analysis will enable the team to better assess future climate stresses and ways local communities can adapt to them.

The researchers hope that community organizations will learn the benefits of using GIS to assess adaptation options in East Africa, which has a heavy concentration of agricultural and pastoral communities vulnerable to drought.

“One goal of the project is to empower local civil society organizations to interact and collaborate with local government entities,” said Smucker, a visiting assistant professor of geography and director of the International Development Studies Program at Ohio University. “Not only does this create layers of information that can help us to understand what’s going on, but it can further mobilize critical thinking within the community.”

The researchers want to avoid the pitfalls of many past development projects in Africa in which outside experts have implemented unsustainable or inappropriate projects for local communities, Smucker noted.

GIS, a computer system that analyzes geographic information and creates maps, traditionally has been used mainly by experts, explains co-investigator Daniel Weiner, a geography professor and executive director of Ohio University’s Center for International Studies. Participatory GIS (PGIS) expands the conventional scope of GIS by incorporating local knowledge and perceptions into the program. For example, in a related project in South Africa, community input created a more accurate, detailed understanding of soil quality than would have been possible using the conventional data collection methods used by GIS experts, he said.

“There is a lot of debate going on about environmental and climate change in general, and we seem overly reliant on computer models for information,” Weiner said. “Local communities have a lot of knowledge about this issue that could be helpful in interpreting data coming out of the models.”

The project brings together the diverse expertise of scholars at various universities—Ohio University, Michigan State University, Oberlin College, University of Florida, the University of Dar es Salaam, Sokoine University of Agriculture, the Center for Energy, Environment, Science and Technology and the LINKS Trust—that include geospatial techniques, cartography and human-environment analysis.

In addition to Smucker and Weiner’s past work in East Africa, the project builds on the work of Ohio University geographer and co-investigator Elizabeth Wangui, who has studied gender and pastoralist development in the region. Gaurav Sinha’s expertise in Geographic Information Science (GIScience) will help the team incorporate qualitative data on local knowledge systems into the GIS. Cartographer Margaret Pearce’s work on geovisualization and indigenous cartographies will inform the production of maps derived from the GIS for use in community forums.

The new National Science Foundation grant also will support graduate assistantships and field research for three geography graduate students.

The team will travel to Tanzania this summer to conduct field research with Tanzanian colleagues. The field work will include a household survey and collaboration with community-based organizations whose activities address climate-sensitive aspects of livelihood and rural development, such as soil/water conservation groups and beekeeping associations. Additionally, the research team hopes to learn how communities perceive, discuss and anticipate climate change.

Next, the geographers will work with community organizations to design local field research activities that create additional data layers in the PGIS. This might include mapping land use change or changes in use and management of resources in livestock grazing and fuel wood collection areas. In the third year of the project, the research team will explore ways that PGIS can be used for proactive planning that reduces peoples’ vulnerability to new patterns of climatic variability associated with global climate change.

The project will result in maps the community can use to document climate change impacts over time. An online version of the PGIS and curriculum development workshops will contribute to modules that will be integrated into university courses in Tanzania and the United States, Smucker added.

Contacts: Thomas Smucker, (740) 593-1832, smucker@ohio.edu; Daniel Weiner, (740) 593-1889, weinerd1@ohio.edu;Director of Research Communications Andrea Gibson, (740) 597-2166, gibsona@ohio.edu.

[Source: Ohio University press release]

‘Supra-glacial Lakes’ are the Focus of a New Penn State Study

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on February 11, 2010 at 9:33 am

Rising temperatures on the Greenland ice sheet cause the creation of large surface lakes called supra-glacial lakes. Now a Penn State geographer will investigate why these lakes form and their implications.

NASA awarded Derrick Lampkin, assistant professor of geography, almost $300,000 over three years to look at these lakes.

“Learning where lakes are, how they form, and how that changes through the melt season can help us really understand a lot about important processes that control how the Greenland ice sheet responds to warming,” Lampkin said.

Supra-glacial lakes form when melting water collects in pools in the lower levels of the ice sheet in melt or ablation zones. These lakes drain rapidly through cracks in the ice channeling water to beneath the ice sheet, affecting how ice sheets move and how pieces calve off into the ocean.

Researchers assumed that the influence of basal structure — the structure under the ice at the base — controls where lakes form on the surface, but the magnitude and degree of this influence are not well known, according to Lampkin. It is important to determine how surface processes and basal conditions interact to shape the ice sheet topography.

Lampkin’s work will complement other research by glaciologists at Penn State, such as Richard Alley and Sridhar Anandakrishan, in understanding how ice sheets work and contribute to sea level. He will look at a variety of existing information, including altimeter data, to create surface topography. He will model the temperatures under the ice and, using existing ice-penetrating radar data, create the basal topography. He will also look at ten years worth of high-resolution LandSat images to map lake features.

“This is an exciting time for the study of the world of ice, but unfortunately the public is not always aware of why this type of work is important,” Lampkin said.

In an effort to involve the public in the investigation of ice sheets, Lampkin has proposed an outreach program to create Facebook and iPhone applications that will allow users to map the locations of supra-glacial lakes using high-resolution satellite imagery.

The Facebook and iPhone applications will present users with pre-selected satellite imagery and a tutorial on how to spot the supra-glacial lakes. Lampkin said users who map the locations could receive some sort of incentive through points or rewards for another Facebook game.

According to Lampkin, it is important to track the development of the supra-glacial lakes, because they form and drain quickly. More people mapping these lakes will give researchers more data to learn about them. In addition, if members of the public are able to map the lakes, they might feel they have a personal stake in the study of climate change science.

“The more the public is involved and informed, the more they will understand how climate science is conducted and may be more willing to support these research efforts,” he said. Additionally, participation of this type may be the very spark to encourage a young mind to one day become an ice scientist.

[Source: Penn State press release]

GIS-based High-resolution Spatial Interpolation of Precipitation in Mountain–plain Areas of Upper Pakistan for Regional Climate Change Impact Studies

In Climate Change on February 10, 2010 at 7:56 am

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Volume 99, Numbers 3-4 / January, 2010

Muhammad Waseem Ashiq, Chuanyan Zhao, Jian Ni and Muhammad Akhtar

“In this study, the baseline period (1960–1990) precipitation simulation of regional climate model PRECIS is evaluated and downscaled on a monthly basis for northwestern Himalayan mountains and upper Indus plains of Pakistan. Different interpolation models in GIS environment are used to generate fine scale (250 × 250 m2) precipitation surfaces from PRECIS precipitation data. Results show that the multivariate extension model of ordinary kriging that uses elevation as secondary data is the best model especially for monsoon months. Model results are further compared with observations from 25 meteorological stations in the study area. Modeled data show overall good correlation with observations confirming the ability of PRECIS to capture major precipitation features in the region. Results for low and erratic precipitation months, September and October, are however showing poor correlation with observations. During monsoon months (June, July, August) precipitation pattern is different from the rest of the months. It increases from south to north, but during monsoon maximum precipitation is in the southern regions of the Himalayas, and extreme northern areas receive very less precipitation. Modeled precipitation toward the end of the twenty-first century under A2 and B2 scenarios show overall decrease during winter and increase in spring and monsoon in the study area. Spatially, both scenarios show similar pattern but with varying magnitude. In monsoon, the Himalayan southern regions will have more precipitation, whereas northern areas and southern plains will face decrease in precipitation. Western and south western areas will suffer from less precipitation throughout the year except peak monsoon months. T test results also show that changes in monthly precipitation over the study area are significant except for July, August, and December. Result of this study provide reliable basis for further climate change impact studies on various resources.”

Meeting Tomorrow’s Challenges: Start with Science

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Imagery on February 6, 2010 at 8:55 am

The President’s FY 2011 Budget Proposal for the USGS

In a fiscally responsible budget that emphasizes cost containment, management efficiencies and program savings, the President’s proposed $1.1 billion budget for the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in fiscal year 2011 reflects his commitment to use science as the basis for natural resource management decisions.

“Science is a cornerstone for sound decision making,” said Marcia McNutt, USGS director. “Today’s complex, interrelated natural resource issues—such as climate change, energy conservation and development, and water quality and availability—demand that policy makers and managers start with timely, unbiased science. The President’s budget supports that vital perspective.”

Because of the significant role USGS plays in climate change monitoring and adaptation, energy, ecosystems, and other priorities, the 2011 budget represents an increase of $21.6 million from the FY 2010 enacted level. Major USGS program increases proposed are summarized below. For more detailed information on the President’s proposed USGS FY 2011 budget, visit the FY 2011 Budget and Related Information Web site.

New Energy Frontier
$3.0 million

The USGS will work closely with Department of the Interior bureaus to provide the scientific information needed to make decisions concerning permitting, implementing, and operating wind facilities on public lands by using USGS research, modeling, and monitoring to assess the ecological impacts to fish and wildlife. In 2011, USGS efforts will begin in the Great Plains and offshore Cape Cod region and will work toward developing an assessment methodology that can be applied nationwide.

Climate Change Adaptation
$11.0 million

Management and policy decisions made in response to climate change impacts must be informed by science. The USGS will continue to assist the Department of the Interior in the development of regional climate science centers that provide climate change impact data and analysis geared to the needs of the fish and wildlife management community, in partnership with other Federal, State, university and other non-governmental partners. Additionally, the USGS will continue to assess biological carbon sequestration options and develop decision-support tools through the USGS Global Change program.

WaterSMART
$9.0 million

Water shortages and water-use conflicts have become more commonplace in many areas of the United States. Water is essential to the economic security of individual communities and the economic vitality and environmental health of our nation as a whole. The USGS will begin an assessment of the availability and use of water resources in the United States in FY 2011. The information will provide tools to address a new set of water resource challenges, including aging infrastructure, rapid population growth, depletion of groundwater resources, water quality impairments associated with land uses, and climate variability.

Treasured Landscapes: The Chesapeake Bay
$3.6 million

President Obama issued an Executive Order in May 2009 directing Federal agencies to use their expertise and resources to protect and restore the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed. The USGS will support restoration strategies by providing tools and science for assessing climate change impacts and adaptation, for conserving landscapes, and for restoring habitats, fish and wildlife, in partnership with the Fish and Wildlife Service and the National Park Service.

Increasing Resilience to Natural Hazards
$4.0 million

The USGS Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project in Southern California will continue to support emergency planning by developing earthquake early warning capabilities and conducting impact analysis of environmental, human-health and ecosystem responses to earthquakes and other hazards. This project will be expanded into the coastal communities of Alaska, and the USGS will invest in earthquake, tsunami and volcano science to support community planning in the Pacific Northwest. Additionally, the USGS proposes to add a volcanic earthquake detection role to the USGS National Earthquake Information Center, which will provide critical early warning to give observatories and affected communities time to plan and prepare for an eruption.

Landsat Data Continuity
$13.4 million

Scientists, educators and the general public around the globe use USGS Landsat data for a wide array of activities ranging from supporting disaster relief efforts to making agricultural crop assessments to identifying sites for cell phone towers. The USGS will accommodate ground-system requirement changes for the Landsat Data Continuity Mission associated with moving the Operational Land Imager to a free-flying satellite and the addition of a Thermal Infrared Sensor on board the spacecraft. These activities are required to meet the mission launch in December 2012.

Coastal and Marine Spatial Planning
$4.0 million

The Department of the Interior has substantial coastal and ocean resource management responsibilities and a critical role in implementing the Administration’s National Ocean Policy. USGS mapping, monitoring and research provide information to assess the status and vulnerability of ocean, coastal and Great Lakes resources. The USGS will engage with other Department of the Interior bureaus and Federal agencies to make available an information framework that provides critical information for coastal and marine planning.

[Source: USGS press release]

Most California Important Bird Areas will Protect Sensitive Bird Species from Climate Change

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on February 4, 2010 at 10:24 am

As questions remain as to how we can best help California birds prosper in a time of climate change, important new research from Audubon California may provide part of the answer. A new analysis of future climate models shows that most California Important Bird Areas – a network of sites identified by Audubon California as providing essential habitat – will protect sensitive bird species against climate change.

“Although climate change will inevitably result in some loss of bird populations, knowing ahead of time where birds will persist gives us a good idea of where to focus our conservation efforts,” said William Monahan, senior GIS scientist with Audubon California.

A fact sheet showing these findings is available on www.ca.audubon.org.

Audubon California has identified 145 Important Bird Areas within the state that provide more than 10 million acres of essential habitat for breeding, wintering and migrating birds. Part of an international process, these sites were nominated by local experts and selected according to rigid criteria.

Monahan and his colleagues identified 25 sensitive bird species that are present at these sites and analyzed their prospects using future climate models. Their results show that 16 of 25 of these species will persist at these sites through the year 2100. Moreover, 89 of the 145 sites will enable 50 percent or more of their sensitive species to persist. Researchers found that California’s most resilient areas are located in coastal regions and the Central Valley.

This is good news for birds such as the Northern Harrier, Golden Eagle, Peregrine Falcon, California Clapper Rail and a many other noteworthy birds that among California’s most sensitive species.

“We already knew that these sites were important to protect because they provided critical habitat for some of California’s most sensitive bird species,” said Andrea Jones, Audubon California’s Important Bird Areas program director. “Learning that they will also provide refuge for birds during the next 90 years of climate change only increases their conservation value.”

[Source: Audubon California press release]

Experts Urge Middle East Governments to Revise Water Policies

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on February 4, 2010 at 10:09 am

…from IRIN News…

“Governments in the Middle East must put aside political differences, rethink water management and revise strategy and policy in using water otherwise the region will face a dire future, scientists have warned at an international conference in Jordan.

“The 1-4 February Amman conference is entitled Food Security and Climate Change in Dry Areas.

“Scientists said the region can no longer afford to waste water, with global warming expected to exacerbate an already existing problem.

“Eddie Bethel, head of ICARDA’s Geographic Information Systems (GIS) unit, said: “The predictions for the near future are dire for the entire Mediterranean region. There is a significant increase in temperature and a decrease in precipitation. For the medium future we can expect serious difficulty in the availability of water in improving agriculture in the region”. “

Conserving Rainforest while Sustaining Local Economies

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on February 3, 2010 at 10:00 am

Guyana’s Minister of Agriculture Will Describe World’s First National Low-Carbon Development Strategy at Town & Gown Cultural Series Event on February 8

Robert M. Persaud, minister of agriculture for the South American country of Guyana, will speak on a new approach to rainforest conservation at the next Town & Gown Cultural Series

event. Guyana is working to establish the world’s first national low-carbon development strategy that responds to a developing country’s economic needs as well as global climate change concerns. Introductory remarks will be made by D. James Baker, director of the Global Carbon Measurement Program for the William J. Clinton Foundation and former administrator of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The free event will take place at 5:30 p.m. on Monday, February 8, 2010, at the ESRI Conference Center, 380 New York Street, in Redlands.

Relatively undeveloped, Guyana retains up to 80 percent (162,000 square kilometers) of its original forest cover. That rainforest is part of the Guiana Shield, an area that includes all of Guyana, Suriname, and French Guiana and parts of southern Venezuela and northern Brazil. These combined forests are the source of 20 percent of the world’s freshwater and represent 18 percent of all the carbon dioxide stored in the world’s tropical forests. Guyana’s new “avoided deforestation” strategy is to evaluate its standing rainforests as assets that can qualify for carbon financing and programs that provide new economic opportunities.

In addition to his current post, Persaud is also Guyana’s coordinator of information communications technology strategy. He has previously held positions as information liaison to the president of Guyana, head of the Government Information Agency, director of the Guyana Broadcasting Corporation, and chairman of the National Communications Network. Persaud holds a master of business administration (MBA) from the University of the West Indies as well as a diploma in news agency journalism from the Indian Institute of Mass Communications.

The next Cultural Series speaker will be James Fallows—national correspondent for The Atlantic, commentator on American politics and culture, and Redlands native—on Sunday, February 21, 2010, at 3:00 p.m. The series is sponsored by ESRI and the University of Redlands and is intended to share these institutions’ educational and cultural resources with the surrounding community.

Attendees should guarantee seating by preregistering for the event on the Internet at www.esri.com/culturalseries or by calling 909-748-8011.

[Source: ESRI press release]

University of Alaska Fairbanks Geobotanist Maps New Trails in Climate Change Research

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on February 2, 2010 at 10:45 am

…from The Sun Star…

“Pursuing multidisciplinary studies brings many atypical experiences, as a UAF biologist discovered last year while trying to protect his expensive equipment, and his head, on a bumpy truck ride on the Yamal Peninsula in Russia. Dr. Donald “Skip” Walker’s research takes him to some rough country, but not usually on the way to the airport.

“For those interested in geobotany, Walker encourages an interdisciplinary approach. He recommends courses “in geography, soils, geology, hydrology, climatology, taxonomy, analytical skills, GIS is almost essential these days – and remote sensing.” He also mentions the importance of fieldwork. “Whether it’s observing birds, or plants, or clouds, or whatever, you’re observing nature and how it operates. I think that’s true with whatever people do,” he said. “I think it’s one of the most difficult [aspects] because it requires so many different interdisciplinary skills. But it’s highly rewarding … if you can last.””

Smithsonian Ecologists Discover Forests are Growing at a Faster Rate

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on February 2, 2010 at 10:09 am

…from the Smithsonian Institution…

“Parker began his tree census work Sept. 8, 1987—his first day on the job at the Smithsonian. He recorded and tracked trees 2 centimeters or more in diameter, identifing them to species and marking each tree’s exact coordinates on a map.

“By knowing its species and diameter, McMahon, who specializes in data-analysis and forest ecology, is able to calculate the biomass of a tree. “Walking in the woods helps, but so does looking at the numbers,” he says.

““We made a list of reasons these forests could be growing faster and then ruled half of them out,” Parker says. The reasons that remained included increased temperature, a longer growing season and increased levels of atmospheric CO2.”

The Nature Conservancy Deploys ESRI Technology for Climate Trend Analysis

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on February 2, 2010 at 8:32 am

The Nature Conservancy Climate Wizard, powered by ESRI, displays free maps of historic climate change and future projected change. Climate Wizard offers scientists, planners, environmentalists, and public users an intuitive means to understand and compare climate change models useful to decision making.

ESRI has had a longtime commitment to environmental sciences and is working with many organizations dedicated to meeting the challenges of climate change (www.esri.com/climate). For many years, ESRI has supported Nature Conservancy efforts to protect our planet by providing environmental expertise and geographic information system (GIS) technology.

The new ESRI-powered version of Climate Wizard was first demonstrated at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP-15) in Denmark. It allows anyone to click a map location and get up-to-date data of climate change trends. A user can also choose between different climate change models to predict impacts on that location.

Climate Wizard uses 16 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Program (CMIP 3) published for the United Nations Environment Programme and the World Meteorological Organization Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. The user selects a model or ensemble of models from a menu and displays them on a GIS map interface.

These new displays replace previous static climate map images with live Web mapping services. An important new capability available due to this improvement enables users to query the 16 different climate change projections for three carbon emissions scenarios at specific locations. They can see the range of future climate projections in graph and tabular formats and view and analyze dynamic data using GIS functionality to see highly specific details relevant to their unique projects. They can also download the climate change data in GIS format.

An extension of Climate Wizard—a future climate model comparison application—allows users to directly compare different model outputs for a chosen area.

The Nature Conservancy launched Climate Wizard in January 2009, with the intent of making climate change a place-based issue so that people would consider how changes in the earth’s climate affect them. The original objective was to build a state-of-the-art framework that could easily accept new data as it is coming from modeling agencies and put this information into the hands of researchers quickly and easily. The addition of ArcGIS Server technology to the tool in December 2009 has made a big step toward achieving this objective by providing live Web mapping services and maps that can be queried on the fly, as well as improved Web application mashup capabilities. The Climate Wizard project is a collaborative effort of the University of Washington, The Nature Conservancy, the University of Southern Mississippi, and ESRI.

“ArcGIS Server has made it possible for our vision of Climate Wizard to come into fruition,” says Evan Girvetz, senior scientist with the Conservancy Global Climate Change Program. “We feel this tool is now on the cutting edge of GIS technology. The framework is there, and users can get the maps and information they need to better plan for future climate in specific places.”

Chris Zganjar, information specialist for the Conservancy Global Climate Change Program, has been dedicated to the project since its inception. “GIS brings sophistication to the Climate Wizard. We can now serve vital climate change data to the practitioner with an easy-to-use tool,” notes Zganjar. “Real data that virtually scales down to a person’s backyard brings the issue into personal space.”

In its development of the GIS framework for Climate Wizard, ESRI Applications Prototype Lab used the beta version of the next release of ArcGIS Server.

[Source: ESRI press release]

Disappearing Ducks? North America’s Prairie Potholes Vulnerable to Warming Climates

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling, Science on February 2, 2010 at 6:05 am

The loss of wetlands in the prairie pothole region of central North America due to a warmer and drier climate will negatively affect millions of waterfowl that depend on the region for food, shelter and raising young, according to research published today in the journal BioScience.

The new research shows that the region appears to be much more sensitive to climate warming and drying than previously thought.

“The impact to the millions of wetlands that attract countless ducks to these breeding grounds in spring makes it difficult to imagine how to maintain today’s level of waterfowl populations in altered climate conditions,” said Dr. Glenn Guntenspergen, a U.S. Geological Survey researcher and one of the report authors. “Parents may not have time to raise their young to where they can fly because of wetlands drying up too quickly in the warming climate of the future,” he added.

A new wetland model developed by the authors to understand the impacts of climate change on wetlands in the prairie pothole region projected major reductions in water volume, shortening of the time water remains in wetlands and changes to wetland vegetation dynamics in this 800,000-square kilometer region in the United States (North and South Dakota, Montana, Minnesota and Iowa) and Canada.

Many wetland species — such as waterfowl and amphibians — require a minimum time in water to complete their life cycles. For example, most dabbling ducks — such as mallards and teal– require at least 80 to 110 days of surface water for their young to grow to where they can fly and for breeding adults to complete molting, the time when birds are flightless while growing new feathers. In addition, an abundance of wetlands are needed because breeding waterfowl typically isolate themselves from others of the same species.

“Unfortunately, the model simulations show that under forecasted climate-change scenarios for this region (an increase of 4-degrees Celsius), the western prairie potholes will be too dry and the eastern ones will have too few functional wetlands and nesting habitat to support historical levels of waterfowl and other wetland-dependent species,” said Dr. W. Carter Johnson, another study author and a researcher at South Dakota State University.

The authors noted that their model allowed a more comprehensive analysis of climate change impacts across the northern prairies because it simultaneously examined the hydrology and vegetation dynamics of the wetland complex, which are both important for the wildlife that depend on the prairie potholes for part or all of their life cycles.

“Our results indicate that the prairie wetlands are highly vulnerable to climate warming, and are less resilient than we previously believed,” said Guntenspergen. “All but the very wettest of the historic boom years for waterfowl production in the more arid parts of the prairie pothole region may be bust years in a 4-degrees Celsius warmer climate.”

These findings may serve as a foundation for managers and policy makers to develop management plans to prepare for and adapt to climate change in the prairie pothole region.

The article, Prairie wetland complexes as landscape functional units in a changing climate, was published in BioScience (60[2]:128-140) and authored by researchers with South Dakota State University, the U.S. Geological Survey, University of Montana, St. Olaf College, The Desert Research Institute-University of Nevada, and the University of Idaho.

USGS, in partnership with the University of Idaho and South Dakota State University.

[Source: USGS press release]

GIS Aids Development of Heat and Drought Resistant Potato to Meet Climate Change Challenge

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on February 1, 2010 at 10:14 am

…from PotatoPro…

“Potato material from the International Potato Center (CIP) is helping farmers to enhance food and income security in Central and Southwest Asia in the face of climate change.

“CIP scientists, partner institutions, and stakeholders across the region are identifying and validating heat, drought, and salinity tolerance traits in a comprehensive program of strategic exchange and testing of advanced clones. They have also integrated geographic information systems (GIS) with statistical analysis of multilocation trial data to assess the suitability of clones for specific locations. These geo-referenced risk maps and growth models can also project future conditions under climate change scenarios. This information, along with the planting materials developed by the project, will provide farmers, researchers, regional governments, extension services, and policy makers with the tools they need to face the challenges of the region’s harsh conditions and adapt to climate change.”

Integrating Climate Change into Forest Planning: A Spatial and Temporal Analysis of Landscape Vulnerability

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on February 1, 2010 at 9:31 am

Craig Robert Nitschke, PhD Dissertation, University of British Columbia

“The achievement of sustainable forest management requires the incorporation of risk and uncertainty into long-term planning. Climatic change is one stressor that will have significant impact on natural disturbances, ecosystems and biodiversity, particularly on landscapes influenced by forest management. Understanding where vulnerabilities lie and when climatic thresholds are reached are important areas of knowledge that must be used to manage the risks associated directly or indirectly with climatic change. The vulnerability of landscapes to natural disturbances, the resilience of ecosystems and distribution of biodiversity are all important components that need to be considered when undertaking forest planning. Through the use of modelling the vulnerability of a 145,000 ha landscape in the south-central interior of British Columbia was used as case study to assess the vulnerability of fire potential, fire regimes, ecosystem resilience and biodiversity to climatic change. The results from the analysis of fire potential identified a 30% increase in fire season length and a 95% increase in fire severity by 2085. A statistically significant shift in fire behaviour was also detected by 2070 with crown fires predicted to be more common. Climatic change was also found to significantly increase mean fire size by 2025 and decrease the mean return interval. By 2085, 95% of the landscape could burn every 50 years or less compared to the 34% currently classified. Ecosystem resilience was modelled to be affected to varying degrees with a shift in many species to higher elevation and/or to non-water deficit sites between 2025 and 2085. Six species were predicted to be at extreme risk and four others at high risk. An analysis of bark beetle risk identified 38.7% of the study area is currently at some degree of risk to attack. An analysis of biodiversity identified 19 indicator species that could be used to monitor management actions with a biodiversity management area that covers 66% of the landscape. These analyses were used as a foundation to guide forest zoning allocation, using the triad zoning framework, and for developing a “Climate-smart” management paradigm to be used for managing the landscape after allocation.”

Integrating GIS, Evolutionary Biology, and Climate Studies: Biologists Identify New Spiny Pocket Mouse Species

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Science on February 1, 2010 at 9:18 am

…from PhysOrg.com…

“Dr. Robert P. Anderson, Associate Professor of Biology at The City College of New York, and Ph.D. student Eliécer E. Gutiérrez have reported the existence of a new species of spiny pocket mouse, from Venezuela, Heteromys catopterius.

“Professor Anderson, a leader in using GIS (geographic information systems) analysis to model species distributions (ranges), says his goal is to use the genus Heteromys as an example of how to integrate GIS, evolutionary biology and climate studies. With an aim toward conservation, he hopes to compare areas with suitable habitat for the species with the location of protected areas.”

Integrating the Climate Science Modelling Language with Geospatial Software and Services

In Climate Change, GIS, Modeling, Science on January 28, 2010 at 1:10 pm

D. Lowe; A. Woolf; B. Lawrence; S. Pascoe

International Journal of Digital Earth, Volume 2, Issue S1 2009 , pages 29 – 39

“Much consideration is rightly given to the design of metadata models to describe data. At the other end of the data-delivery spectrum much thought has also been given to the design of geospatial delivery interfaces such as the Open Geospatial Consortium standards, Web Coverage Service (WCS), Web Map Server and Web Feature Service (WFS). Our recent experience with the Climate Science Modelling Language shows that an implementation gap exists where many challenges remain unsolved. To bridge this gap requires transposing information and data from one world view of geospatial climate data to another. Some of the issues include: the loss of information in mapping to a common information model, the need to create ‘views’ onto file-based storage, and the need to map onto an appropriate delivery interface (as with the choice between WFS and WCS for feature types with coverage-valued properties). Here we summarise the approaches we have taken in facing up to these problems.”

Internship Opportunity: Using GIS to Assess Climate Change Impacts From Regional to Global Scales

In Climate Change, ESRI, Education, Environmental Science, GIS on January 27, 2010 at 10:13 am

Center for Climate Systems Research, Earth Institute/Goddard Institute for Space Studies

Assist the climate impacts team in research, analysis and presentation of climate change impacts from the local to global scales, with particular emphasis on the use of geographical information to determine fine-scale risk assessment and management. Current projects include climate change studies of sea level rise, health, water resources and infrastructure in New York City and New York State; water resources and agriculture in Florida and Central America; as well as agricultural production and food trade around the world.  We employ a variety of interdisciplinary models and work closely with stakeholders to identify vulnerabilities and develop flexible adaptation pathways.

Skills Required: Experience with ArcGIS Geographical Information Systems software, basic knowledge of climate change, ability to work in fast-paced team environment.

Climate Adaptation Coordinator Position at the Wildlife Conservation Society

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on January 25, 2010 at 10:15 am

The Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) seeks a strategic, analytical conservationist to build adaptation to climate change into our global field programs and to represent WCS on this issue in global policy forums. This full-time position, based at WCS’s headquarters, the Bronx Zoo in New York City, offers the opportunity to join an extraordinary team of committed conservationists, to influence conservation practice in over fifty countries, and to build a reputation in one of conservation’s fastest growing fields.

WCS saves wildlife and wild places through a global program of landscape, seascape, and species conservation projects employing over 3,000 in Africa, Asia, the Americas, and the world’s oceans. In global policy forums, we are listened to as scientists and conservationists with unrivalled field experience and success.

The Climate Adaptation Coordinator will have three main areas of responsibility:

  • Working with our regional, country, landscape, seascape, and species programs to ensure that each incorporates planning for adaptation to climate change and to promote cross-program learning;
  • Representing WCS at global policy forums to promote successful approaches to climate adaptation and the central role of biodiversity conservation in this endeavor;
  • Spearhead the development of an organization-wide climate adaptation strategy and help fundraise to implement this strategy.

The successful candidate will have: an advanced degree in landscape ecology, climate change ecology, modeling climate impacts on natural systems, conservation biology, or a related field; GIS skills; experience implementing strategic initiatives across a global organization; demonstrated ability to thrive in an organization characterized by a highly educated and mission-driven workforce; and strong interpersonal and communications skills including the ability to summarize concisely scientific findings.

Valencia Community College Campus-wide Climate Action Plan Includes Geospatial Component

In Climate Change, GIS on January 22, 2010 at 1:10 pm

EcoAsset Solutions announces the receipt of a contract awarded by Valencia Community College in Florida to provide technical planning and analysis for a campus-wide Climate Action Plan. EcoAsset Solutions’ will lead the comprehensive sustainability initiative by developing a baseline greenhouse gas inventory of campus facilities and operations, a geospatial database that will manage Valencia’s data, and a Climate Action Plan that will incorporate stakeholder input from college staff, faculty and students, set emissions reduction targets, and provide a detailed strategy for Valencia to meet its targets.

The goal of the contract is to bring Valencia Community College, the second largest producer of associate degree graduates among the nation’s two-year schools, into compliance as a climate neutral site, an initiative of the American College & University Presidents’ Climate Commitment (ACUPCC). Valencia is one of over 650 colleges and universities that has committed to measure and report greenhouse gas emissions and devise an action plan to reduce their carbon footprint.

“We are excited to be one of the first to take on this project,” says Helene Loiselle, assistant vice president of Facilities Management for Valencia Community College, “and we are happy to partner with EcoAsset Solutions on this very important endeavor.”

John Wakefield, senior vice president for EcoAsset Solutions, commented that “Our government, corporate and higher education clients such as Valencia expect to see value from their investment in sustainability and it is our mission to deliver that return on investment.”

The initiative began in January 2010 and is expected to be finalized in May 2010.

[Source: EcoAsset Solutions press release]

World Bank Awards Contract for Spatial Analysis of Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risks in Vietnam

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery, Spatial Analysis, Statistics on January 22, 2010 at 7:17 am

Spatial Analysis of Natural Hazard and Climate Change Risks in Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi cities in Viet Nam

Under a contract from the World Bank, GeoVille has performed a spatial analysis of natural hazard and climate change risks for disaster risk reduction into overall urban development in Can Tho, Dong Hoi, and Hanoi cities, Vietnam. The assessment covers satellite, topographical and multi-level GIS based generation of natural hazards and climate change hazard potential maps, description of methods and provision of statistics and description of hazard potential profiles.

The scope of the contract includes project management; satellite, topographical, and multi-level GIS based generation of natural hazards and climate change hazard potential maps; and description of methods and provision of statistics and description of hazard potential profiles.

About GeoVille

GeoVille Group is an internationally operating company providing products, services and consultancy in the environmental and geo-spatial domain, specializing in Earth observation and GIS applications.

We are dedicated to customer satisfaction and delivering quality controlled geo-information products.

We have successfully carried out projects in over 60 countries.

GeoVille Information Systems GmbH and GeoVille Environmental Services sàrl are based in Austria and Luxemburg.

Post-Doctoral Scholar: Hydrogeomorphic Response to Changing Climates in the Pacific Northwest, Oregon State University

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Spatial Analysis, Statistics on January 20, 2010 at 10:15 am

“We are looking for someone to co-lead a multi-year, inter-institutional research effort to characterize and forecast the effects of changing climate on streamflows and geomorphic processes in the Pacific Northwest. Focus will be on developing and extending theoretical and empirical models of hydrologic response to climate drivers, emphasizing the role of geologic and ecologic controls and filters. The individual hired will have primary responsibility for exploring fruitful lines of attack on the problem, data acquisition and analysis, developing and applying relevant hydrologic and statistical models, and reporting results as journal publications and presentations. This post-doctoral position is with the Watershed Processes Group of Oregon State University (www.fsl.orst.edu/wpg), and the person hired will work closely with federal scientists from the USDA Forest Service Pacific Northwest Research Station.

“Qualifications:

  1. Ph.D. in hydrology, geomorphology, watershed sciences, or a closely related field, with a demonstrated record of publication or other successful dissemination of work.
  2. Strong fundamental understanding of hydrologic processes at the scale of small watersheds to larger catchments, with expertise in one or more of the following: snowpack dynamics, groundwater processes, ecohydrologic interactions, drainage network response to precipitation/runoff relationships.
  3. Experience and facility with distributed parameter hydrologic models; familiarity with climate models and climate change scenarios desirable
  4. Strong statistics, data analysis and visualization skills, particularly with respect to long time-series data sets.
  5. High level working knowledge of GIS and other spatial analysis tools. Expertise with interpreting remote sensing a plus.

Please send a letter of application describing your research experience and qualifications relevant to this position, a complete resume with links to publications, and the names, email addresses and telephone numbers of three references to Sarah Lewis, sarah.lewis@oregonstate.edu or 3200 SW Jefferson Way, Corvallis, Oregon 97330. Review of applications will begin February 15, 2010, and continue until a suitable candidate is found.”

V1 Magazine Interview with Jack Dangermond: GeoDesign, Virtual Cities, Climate Change, ArcGIS 10, and More

In Climate Change, Design, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Spatial Analysis, Visualization on January 19, 2010 at 6:53 am

…from V1 Magazine…

“V1: You’re a high-energy individual that has applied every waking hour for more than 40 years toward the design and application of technology to help manage the earth. Are your concerns for our planet a strong motivator for you?

“Dangermond: This purpose has always been the reason for ESRI, and why all of us here work so hard. I think in our own small way ESRI, through the incredible work of our users, has been able to make a difference. However, given the immensity of the problem there is so much more to be done, and we need to keep driving our vision of integrating  geographic thinking into virtually all human activities.”

Spatial Assessment and Analysis of Vulnerability: GIScience Applied in the Interdisciplinary Domain of Hazard and Climate Change Research

In Climate Change, Conferences, GIS, GIScience, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis, Visualization on January 15, 2010 at 6:59 am

06 – 07 July 2010,  Salzburg, Austria

“This theme is expected to highlight different developed and currently investigated methodologies to spatially assess vulnerability. It will specifically address the issue of vulnerability assessment, independent from conceptual discussions. The focus will be on the review and discussion of different methods of GIScience employed to assess, quantify and represent vulnerability as integrated spatial phenomena. Within a workshop session, current achievements and future research challenges will be identified and formulated.

“Topics:

  • Assessments in the domains of disaster risk reduction, climate change, natural hazards and human security;
  • Methods for indicator selection and index construction;
  • Scale issues in vulnerability assessments;
  • Validation and accuracy of vulnerability assessments;
  • Spatio-temporal visualisation of complex indicators.

“The workshop is scheduled for Tuesday, July 6 and Wednesday, July 7, 2010 and will be followed by the annual GI_Forum. In addition to presentations ranging from different scholarly schools of vulnerability the workshop will focus on output oriented discussion sessions.

“The papers will be peer-reviewed and published in a book.”

Research Associate, Texas Fisheries and Wildlife Coop Unit

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Statistics on January 15, 2010 at 6:28 am

Research Associate needed ASAP

Location: Texas Fisheries and Wildlife Coop Unit, Texas Tech University, Lubbock, Texas

Timing and duration:  To be filled ASAP and funded at least through Sept 2011.

Duties: Support principal investigator and coordinate with other investigators and cooperators from USGS, Texas Tech University, Texas Parks and Wildlife Department, New Mexico State Game and Fish Department, Texas Commission on Environmental  Quality, and others on a large scale meta-analysis project examining the impacts of climate change and water quality on fish communities and algal blooms, including database management, statistical and landscape level analyses, report writing, manuscript preparation.

Minimum requirements:  Master’s degree in biology, hydrology, or natural resource related field, experience with ArcGIS, statistical analysis, and professional writing skills.

Salary: $40,000 per year with benefits

Please send a cover letter and CV with references to:

Dr. Reynaldo Patiño
Texas Cooperative Fish & Wildlife Research Unit Texas Tech University Agricultural Sciences Rm 218 Mailstop 2120 Lubbock, TX 79409-2120
(806) 742-2851
reynaldo.patino@ttu.edu

Coastal Environmental Changes Along the Northwestern Coast of Egypt: Case Study from Alexandria to El Alamein Coast

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on January 14, 2010 at 6:05 am

Forum Geografic. Studii şi cercetări de geografie şi protecţia mediului. Year 8, No. 8/ 2009, pp. 14-22

Gehan MANSOUR EL-BAYOMI

“The present papers aims at highlighting the urban development, fishing activities, tourism, industrial development and agricultural activities that affect delicate and valuable coastal ecosystems. A supervised classification, post-classification, change detection techniques were applied to Land sat images acquired in 1991 and 2007, respectively, to map land cover changes along the north-western coast of Egypt, from Alexandria to El Alamein. A supervised classification was carried out on the six reflective bands for the two images individually with the aid of true ground data. The truthful ground information, collected during field trips using ancillary data, visual interpretation and experts’ knowledge of the area using GIS, further refined the classification results. Post-classification change detection technique was used to produce image through cross-tabulation. Changes among different land cover classes were assessed.  During the study period, a very severe land cover change has taken place as a result of agricultural and tourist development projects. These shoreline and land cover changes led to modifications of the environmental properties.”

Jane Goodall Institute-Tanzania Awarded More Than $2.7 Million USD by Royal Norwegian Embassy

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on January 13, 2010 at 1:04 pm

Grant Will Enable Local Communities to Protect Forest Habitat and Ultimately Profit from Reducing Carbon Emissions

The Royal Norwegian Embassy in Tanzania recently awarded more than $2.7 million (USD) to the Jane Goodall Institute (JGI)-Tanzania. The three-year grant will enable JGI to provide local community-based organizations and district governments with the training, equipment and other materials needed to protect their forestland and-ultimately- benefit from income earned through the sale of carbon credits through the financing mechanism known as Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD). REDD was a hot topic at the recent UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, which was attended by world-renowned primatologist and conservationist Dr. Jane Goodall, DBE, founder of the Jane Goodall Institute and UN Messenger of Peace.

“One of the major concerns raised at the Copenhagen conference is that traditional landowners won’t benefit from forest-based projects that reduce carbon from the atmosphere,” said Dr. Goodall. “JGI-Tanzania’s new project-generously funded by the Royal Norwegian Embassy-will clearly demonstrate that this does not have to be the case. In fact, we will show how rural communities can lead REDD efforts, working together with governments to improve their lives, conserve the rich natural landscapes in which they live, and secure the future for generations to come.”

The funds provided by the Norwegian Embassy will support JGI’s work in the Masito-Ugalla Ecosystem, one of the least developed areas of the world. JGI’s REDD project will produce a model demonstrating that traditional rural communities can lead actions to reduce carbon emissions and sequester carbon through sustainable management of their forest resources. The lessons learned from JGI’s efforts can guide other communities in Tanzania and elsewhere that wish to replicate the REDD process.

The project will primarily conserve approximately 70,000 hectares of pristine forests and woodlands found in one of the last large expanses of intact forest in Tanzania, enhancing biodiversity and ecosystem functions such as providing habitat for chimpanzees. Communities will be eligible to earn credits for the carbon stored in their protected forest areas. They will then have the opportunity to sell these credits in the international marketplace in order to raise funds to support forest management efforts and improve community living conditions. In addition, participating communities will benefit from secondary products obtained from the protected forests, including sales from wild honey, medicinal plants, fuel wood and tourism.

Over the course of the three-year project, JGI will develop methodologies and provide technical training to communities and local and national government partners to help inventory, monitor and manage the forest. JGI will utilize a number of cutting-edge technologies in partnership with Google, ESRI and DigitalGlobe such as mobile Android/ODK and web-based mapping systems along with GIS and high-resolution satellite imagery. JGI will also work to strengthen management practices among participating organizations and improve communication between the government, community-based groups and local residents.

“By using geospatial technologies and the Internet, local communities will be able to interact directly with the global carbon marketplace and demonstrate unequivocally the concrete benefits of their efforts to protect the forest,” said Dr. Lilian Pintea, director of conservation science at the Jane Goodall Institute. “As a result, local information will directly inform and influence national and global decisions regarding climate change.”

About the Jane Goodall Institute

Founded in 1977, the Jane Goodall Institute continues Dr. Goodall’s pioneering research on chimpanzee behavior-research that transformed scientific perceptions of the relationship between humans and animals. Today, the Institute is a global leader in the effort to protect chimpanzees and their habitats. It also is widely recognized for establishing innovative community-centered conservation and development programs in Africa, and Jane Goodall’s Roots & Shoots, the global environmental and humanitarian youth program that has groups in more than 120 countries. For more information, please visit www.janegoodall.org.

[Source: Jane Goodall Institute press release]

Beaufort Sea Project for Climate Change: Impact and Adaptation to Climate Change for Fish and Marine Mammals

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on January 13, 2010 at 12:59 pm

“Based on existing scientific research for environmental impacts in the Beaufort Sea, this project examines climate change and impacts on fish and marine mammals in the Canadian Beaufort Sea region, subsistence uses by the Inuvialuit, and the management of these species by the Fisheries Joint Management Committee and other government agencies and departments. The research identifies impacts of climate change and interactions with other environmental factors, illustrates these impacts and interactions with GIS analysis, and develops an interactive web-based communication strategy to discuss results and to recommend adaptive strategies that based on integrated management approaches.”

US Forest Service Seminar on Climate Change and Natural Resource Management

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on January 13, 2010 at 7:28 am

“The US Forest Service International Programs and the University of California, Davis, are pleased to announce a new International Seminar on Climate Change and Natural Resource Management, to take place May 9—30, 2010, in California.  Because of its national leadership on climate change legislation, greenhouse gas reduction targets, and multiple resource management agencies, California is an ideal location to learn about cutting edge land management practices under climate change.  The State contains many ecosystems affected by climate change, while facing pressure from rapid human growth, water scarcity, and important agricultural land uses.  The seminar is designed for natural resource managers with a professional interest in climate change issues who wish to participate in an engaging, interactive, and highly informative training and field study program.  Attendees will learn about adaptation and mitigation practices for managing natural resources in the face of climate change and its potential effects on natural resources, and will be introduced to policy and technological developments in carbon markets and offsets.”

An Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Water Resources in Spain

In Climate Change, Modeling on January 5, 2010 at 7:44 am

American Water Resources Association 2010 Summer Specialty Conference: GIS & Water Resources VI, 29 – 31 March 2010, Orlando, Florida

Session 4: Hydrologic Modeling I.  Monday, 29 March, 1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Javier Alvarez-Rodriguez, Centre for Hydrographical Studies of Cedex, Madrid, NA, Spain (co-authors: Barranco Sanz, Luis.,Potenciano de las Heras, Angela, Quintas Ripoll, Luis)

“Some results are shown of work carried out in CEDEX to assess the climate change impact on water resources in natural regime. The work is developed under the coordination of the Spanish General Directorate of Waters. 12 climate regionalized projections were provided by the Spanish Office of Climate Change (OECC) and the Spanish Meteorological Agency (AEMET). They give estimates of precipitation and maximum and minimum daily temperatures during the control period (1961-1990) and three future periods (2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100) in which the impact was evaluated. A preliminary comparison of climate projections and observed data was done for the control period. It was followed by an interpolation of the atmospheric forcing variables. Also potential evapotranspiration was estimated. Finally, atmospheric forcing variables were implemented in a semidistributed version of Tmez model to obtain maps of actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, groundwater recharge and runoff. The model is integrated into SIMPA (An Integrated System for Rainfall Runoff Modelling) system, a GRASS based GIS tool, developed by CEDEX since the 90′s. Atmospheric and hydrological variables are distributed with the exception of groundwater discharge, which is simulated using a tank model in defined hydrogeological units. More than 200,000 maps of 1 km2 resolution have been generated covering the whole of Spain in a monthly basis. The impact of climate change on water resources is presented as percentage deviations of runoff in each future period of the XXIth century with respect to the control period.”

Assistant/Associate Research Professor – Ecosystem Modeler, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on January 5, 2010 at 7:40 am

The Desert Research Institute (DRI), Reno, Nevada, is seeking an enthusiastic and motivated scientist in the area of Ecological Modeling at the level of Assistant Research Professor. For exceptional candidates hiring at the Associate Research Professor level will be considered. The appointment is expected to begin 1 September 2010 and the successful candidate will participate in or lead individual research tasks, develop new directions in ecological research, and supervise post-doctoral fellows and graduate students within ongoing and planned ecological experimental studies. The individual selected is expected to interact with a diverse group of scientists, including plant physiological ecologists, soil scientists, remote sensing/GIS specialists, climate modelers, hydrologists and atmospheric scientists. The initial focus of this position will be to assess the response of Great Basin ecosystems to future climate change scenarios. It is expected that the candidate will participate in analysis of observational and model data, and take a lead in publication writing and reporting. All candidates will be evaluated on past experience, communication skills, proposal and publication record, grant and contract activities, ability to work both collaboratively and independently, supervision experience, and personal area of expertise that complements existing staff. The successful candidate may have an opportunity to teach classes relevant to climate change at the University of Nevada, Reno if desired but this is not a requirement of the position.

Required Qualifications

  • Ph.D. degree in Ecology with a strong background in Mathematics or vice versa or related field.
  • Ability to work collaboratively and productively in an interdisciplinary environment and advise graduate students and post-doctoral researchers.
  • Excellent oral and written communication skills.
  • Ability to work independently and as a lead of a scientific team to fulfill project goals and meet project deadlines.
  • Record of peer-reviewed journal articles and presentations at professional meetings appropriate for the candidate’s professional rank
  • A record of program development or other demonstrated ability to obtain and complete research grants and contracts appropriate for the candidate’s rank.
  • Evidence of potential to secure and maintain adequate funding through federal, state and local agencies.

More information

Doug Richardson, Executive Director of the Association of American Geographers, on GIScience and Climate Change

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, GIScience, Science on January 4, 2010 at 10:15 am

…from the Winter 2009/2010 issue of ArcNews…

“Geographers and GIScientists have long played key roles in climate change research, and the tools and methods of geography—including GIS—will be crucial to understanding, limiting, and adapting to climate change in the decades ahead.

“After years of delay and denial, responsible climate change research and responsive policy agendas are now assuming center stage in President Barack Obama’s administration. Nearly all federal agencies now have legacy or newly mandated and funded research programs that actively seek to identify causes and impacts of global climate change and policies for mitigating or adapting to these impacts. Geography and GIScience, with long experience in the integration of the physical and social sciences, offer a well-placed bridge that can bring together the disparate natural and human system elements of climate change research and policy.”

Using GIS to Assess Climate Change Impacts on the Rio Grande and its Riparian Forest

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on January 4, 2010 at 8:36 am

American Water Resources Association 2010 Summer Specialty Conference: GIS & Water Resources VI, 29 – 31 March 2010, Orlando, Florida

Session 4: Hydrologic Modeling I.  Monday, 29 March, 1:30 p.m. – 3:00 p.m.

Julie Coonrod, Department of Civil Engineering, Albuquerque, NM (co-authors: Kelly Isaacson, Venkatesh Merwade)

“River restoration projects in the vicinity of Albuquerque, New Mexico are often focused on the riparian forest. Exotic species are removed, while native cottonwood trees are planted. The cottonwood trees are ‘pole planted’ such that their roots tap into the groundwater table adjacent to the river. Such projects are located anywhere current cottonwood trees exist and not necessarily where groundwater depths have been estimated to determine likelihood of species survival. This work is aimed at utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) along with the Hydrologic Engineering Center River Analysis System (RAS) to determine depth to groundwater as a function of river flow rate. The RAS model utilizes a terrain model developed by various data sets including point data from Light Detection and Ranging, surveyed cross-section points, and aerial photographs. The RAS model is calibrated with readily available flow gage data. In-channel water surfaces from RAS are combined with well data in GIS to create groundwater surfaces. The groundwater surfaces are thus created as a function of flow rate. Doing so allows for simulation of groundwater surfaces for average years, dry years, and wet years. Furthermore, climate change scenarios (that employed GIS methods) can be used to estimate changes in stream flow. These changes show the groundwater surface can drop below the depth that the cottonwood trees can reach. By subtracting the groundwater surface from the digital terrain, the depth to groundwater is determined. Locations where riparian vegetation will be most stressed can be identified.”

Top Ten Posts of 2009

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Science, Statistics on December 29, 2009 at 7:42 am

Top ten GISandScience.com posts of 2009 based on number of page views:

  1. Spatial Statistics, Geostatistics, and GIS: Free Training Available
  2. Accuracy of iPhone Locations: A Comparison of Assisted GPS, WiFi, and Cellular Positioning
  3. A Farewell Chat with David Maguire, ESRI’s Chief Scientist
  4. Top Nine Favorite Innovations in ArcGIS
  5. Integrating GIS with Models: A Bibliography
  6. What Would Happen if the Earth Stopped Spinning?
  7. GIS and Climate Change Resources
  8. California Governors’ Global Climate Summit 2: September 30 – October 2, 2009
  9. Agent-Based Modeling and GIS
  10. Aggregated Live Feeds in ArcGIS

NASA Visualization of 2009 Antarctic Ozone Hole

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Geography, Video, Visualization on December 29, 2009 at 6:30 am

Watch the video

Scientists Map Speed of Climate Change

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on December 28, 2009 at 7:14 am

…from LabSpaces.net…

“From beetles to barnacles, pikas to pine warblers, many species are already on the move in response to shifting climate regimes. But how fast will they—and their habitats—have to move to keep pace with global climate change over the next century? In a new study, a team of scientists including Dr. Healy Hamilton from the California Academy of Sciences have calculated that on average, ecosystems will need to shift about 0.42 kilometers per year (about a quarter mile per year) to keep pace with changing temperatures across the globe. Mountainous habitats will be able to move more slowly, since a modest move up or down slope can result in a large change in temperature. However, flatter ecosystems, such as flooded grasslands, mangroves, and deserts, will need to move much more rapidly to stay in their comfort zone—sometimes more than a kilometer per year. The team, which also included scientists from the Carnegie Institute of Science, Climate Central, and U.C. Berkeley, will publish their results in the December 24 issue of Nature. “

Video: Is Climate Change Good or Bad for Innovation?

In Climate Change, Video on December 28, 2009 at 7:02 am

Grand Teton National Park: Biologists Use GIS to Model Pika Habitat

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on December 22, 2009 at 10:17 am

In response to a growing body of evidence indicating that climate change is slowly and persistently affecting the ecology of plant and animal species on a global scale, Grand Teton National Park biologists – in collaboration with Yellowstone NP and Teton Science Schools – began a survey this past summer to develop baseline data on the local population of American pika (Ochotona princeps).

Pikas reside at high elevations (one of few mammal species to so) and although they are found throughout the Teton Range, little is known about their habitat requirements, distribution, and historic or current range.

Recent scientific studies suggest that the American pika, a small lagomorph found in subalpine and alpine talus slopes, can be used as an indicator species for evaluating the effects of climate change in western North America because of its sensitivity to temperature fluctuations.

In a study conducted in Nevada’s Great Basin by Eric Beever, ecologist with the U.S. Geological Survey, 7 out of 25 pika populations were lost in the 55-86 years since their last recorded presence. Researchers also found that pika populations shifted upward an average elevation of 500 feet in Yosemite National Park; a fact that suggests pikas may eventually reach an elevation limit in their response to increasing temperatures. In addition, habitat models recently developed by April Craighead, with Craighead Environmental Research Institute, and Scott Loarie, with the Carnegie Institute, predict that pikas may disappear from over 80% of their current range by the turn of the century. The majority of this disappearance is expected to occur in the pikas’ lower elevation range where temperatures may exceed thresholds for their survival.

Evidence linking changes in pika numbers and their distribution to a warming climate prompted the Center for Biological Diversity to petition the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service in 2007 to list pikas under the Endangered Species Act (ESA). While a decision has not yet been issued on this petition, if listed, the American pika will become the first mammal species outside of Alaska to be protected under the ESA due to climate change threats.

Using geographic information system (GIS), Grand Teton biologists modeled suitable pika habitat located between Rendezvous Mountain and Paintbrush Canyon based on characteristics derived from published literature and related studies. Suitable habitat was defined as talus slopes less than 35 degrees in angle and no more than 400 meters from an established or “social” trail. Biologists selected 250 random locations to serve as established points for the survey. At each point, technicians assessed the area for habitat suitability and proceeded to locate physical evidence (scat, hay piles) as well as visual and/or vocal activity. Investigators then made population estimates in each plot and placed small sensors at ten survey sites that measure temperature several times a day. The sensors will be left in the field for one year, after which time they will be collected and the temperature data downloaded. Preliminary results from this year’s survey indicate that, within Grand Teton, observers found evidence of pika occupancy in or surrounding 47 of 49 plots, which ranged from 2000-3500 meters in elevation.

Grand Teton’s pika monitoring surveys were relatively simple and cost effective to implement. Based on this initial project, there is growing interest among Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem land management agencies in expanding surveys to include national forest areas, and other locations across the ecosystem.

This project serves as a critical first step in documenting where pika populations exist and ultimately will help biologists understand how those populations may change under different climate scenarios. Information from this project will be used to evaluate the health of Grand Teton’s pika population and comes at a time when pikas throughout the western United States are predicted to disappear in the near future due to climate change.

[Source: NPS press release]

Spatial Analysis and Modeling to Assess and Map Current Vulnerability to Extreme Weather Events in the Grijalva–Usumacinta Watershed, México

In Climate Change, Modeling, Spatial Analysis on December 22, 2009 at 7:12 am

2009 IOP Conf. Ser.: Earth Environ. Sci. 8 012021

D López L

“One of the major concerns over a potential change in climate is that it will cause an increase in extreme weather events. In Mexico, the exposure factors as well as the vulnerability to the extreme weather events have increased during the last three or four decades. In this study spatial analysis and modeling were used to assess and map settlement and crop systems vulnerability to extreme weather events in the Grijalva – Usumacinta watershed. Sensitivity and coping adaptive capacity maps were constructed using decision models; these maps were then combined to produce vulnerability maps. The most vulnerable area in terms of both settlement and crop systems is the highlands, where the sensitivity is high and the adaptive capacity is low. In lowlands, despite the very high sensitivity, the higher adaptive capacity produces only moderate vulnerability. I conclude that spatial analysis and modeling are powerful tools to assess and map vulnerability. These preliminary results can guide the formulation of adaptation policies to an increasing risk of extreme weather events.”

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, GIS, Quotes on December 21, 2009 at 6:48 am

“The debate over cli­mate change has been long, heated and often trou­bled by dif­fer­ent view­points. Geospa­tial tech­nolo­gies and tools cut through the thick fog of alter­nat­ing views and bring real data and results to the fore­front.”

–Jeff Thurston

Rainfall Variability and Trends in Semi-arid Botswana: Implications for Climate Change Adaptation Policy

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on December 18, 2009 at 8:45 am

Applied Geography, 2009.10.007

Nnyaladzi Batisani and Brent Yarnal.

“Rainfall variability is an important feature of semi-arid climates, and climate change is likely to increase that variability in many of these regions. An understanding of rainfall variability and trends in that variability is needed to help vulnerable dryland agriculturalists and policymakers address current climate variation and future climate change. The goals of this paper are to examine this climatic phenomenon in semi-arid Botswana, to investigate these results for signs of climate change, and to explore the policy implications for climate adaptation. To reach these goals, the paper determines rainfall variability and monthly and annual trends in that variability. The results agree with earlier work showing gradients in rainfall and rainfall variability across Botswana. The results also identify a trend towards decreased rainfall throughout the nation, which is associated with decreases in the number of rainy days. Both the drying trend and decrease in rainy days agree with climate change projections for southern Africa. The paper discusses policies that the government could adopt to help its farmers adapt to climate change.”

Association of American Geographers’ “Geography, Climate Change, and the Copenhagen Negotiations” Blog

In Climate Change, Geography on December 18, 2009 at 7:25 am

Check out the Association of American Geographers’ “Geography, Climate Change, and the Copenhagen Negotiations” blog, where AAG representatives Mike Urban, Mark Cowell, and M. Anwar Sounny-Slitine share their observations on the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark.

USGS: New Science Estimates Carbon Storage Potential of U.S. Lands

In Climate Change, Science on December 18, 2009 at 7:15 am

Nation’s Forests and Soils Store Equivalent of 50 Years of U.S. CO2 Emissions

The first phase of a groundbreaking national assessment estimates that U.S. forests and soils could remove additional quantities of carbon dioxide (CO2) from the atmosphere as a means to mitigate climate change.

The lower 48 states in the U.S. hypothetically have the potential to store an additional 3-7 billion metric tons of carbon in forests, if agricultural lands were to be used for planting forests. This potential is equivalent to 2 to 4 years of America’s current CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels.

“Carbon pollution is putting our world—and our way of life—in peril,” said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar in a keynote speech at the global conference on climate change in Copenhagen, Denmark. “By restoring ecosystems and protecting certain areas from development, the U.S. can store more carbon in ways that enhance our stewardship of land and natural resources while reducing our contribution to global warming.”

U.S. Geological Survey scientists also found that the conterminous U.S. presently stores 73 billion metric tons of carbon in soils and 17 billion metric tons in forests. This is equivalent to more than 50 years of America’s current CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuels. This shows the need to protect existing carbon stores to prevent additional warming and future harm to ecosystems.

America’s forests and soils are currently insufficient in soaking up the nation’s accelerating pace of emissions. They currently absorb about 30 percent (0.5 billion metric tons of carbon) of the nation’s fossil fuel emissions per year (1.6 billion metric tons of carbon). Enhancing the carbon storage capacity of America’s and the world’s ecosystems is an important tool to reduce carbon emissions and help ecosystems adapt to changing climate conditions.

“The tools the USGS is developing—and the technologies behind those tools—will be of great use to communities around the world that are making management decisions on carbon storage,” said USGS Director Marcia McNutt. “The USGS is conducting a national assessment of biologic carbon sequestration, as well as an assessment of ecosystem carbon and greenhouse gas fluxes, which will help determine how we can reduce atmospheric CO2 levels while preserving other ecological functions.”

To determine how much more carbon could be stored in forests and soils, USGS scientists analyzed maps that represent historical vegetation cover before human alterations, as well as maps of vegetation that might occur if there were no natural disturbances, such as fires, pests and drought. These maps were compared to maps of current vegetation and carbon storage.

The next phase of this work will assess the additional amount of carbon stored in Alaska’s ecosystems, including its soils and forests. The USGS plans to collaborate with U.S. Department of Agriculture and other agencies to examine potential carbon storage in soils.

The USGS is conducting research on a number of other fronts related to carbon sequestration. These efforts include evaluating the potential for storing carbon dioxide in geologic formations below the Earth’s surface, potential release of greenhouse gases from Arctic soils and permafrost, and mapping the distribution of rocks suitable for potential mineral sequestration efforts.

For more information about this assessment, visit http://pubs.usgs.gov/ofr/2009/1283.

[Source: USGS press release]

USGS: New Discoveries Could Improve Climate Projections

In Climate Change, Modeling on December 17, 2009 at 10:05 am

New discoveries about the deep ocean’s temperature variability and circulation system could help improve projections of future climate conditions.

The deep ocean is affected more by surface warming than previously thought, and this understanding allows for more accurate predictions of factors such as sea level rise and ice volume changes.

High ocean surface temperatures have also been found to result in a more vigorous deep ocean circulation system. This increase results in a faster transport of large quantities of warm water, with possible impacts including reduction of sea ice extent and overall warming of the Arctic.

“The deep ocean is relatively unexplored, and we need a true understanding of its many complex processes,” said U.S. Geological Survey Director Marcia McNutt. “An understanding of climate change and its impacts based on sound, objective data is a keystone to the type of long-term strategies and solutions that are being discussed now at the United Nations conference in Copenhagen.”

USGS scientists created the first ever 3-D reconstruction of an ocean during a past warm period, focusing on the mid-Pliocene warm period 3.3 to 3 million years ago.

“Our findings are significant because they improve our previous understanding that the deep ocean stayed at relatively constant, cold temperatures and that the deep ocean circulation system would slow down as surface temperatures increased,” said USGS scientist Harry Dowsett. “By looking at conditions in the past, we acquire real data that allow us to see the global climate system as it actually functioned.”

“The average temperature of the entire ocean during the mid-Pliocene was approximately one degree warmer than current conditions, showing that warming wasn’t just at the surface but occurred at all depths” said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. “Temperatures were determined by analyzing marine plankton fossils, which are organisms that inhabited the water’s surface, as well as fossils of bottom-dwelling organisms, known as ostracodes.”

Global average surface temperatures during the mid-Pliocene were about 3°C (5.5°F) greater than today and within the range projected for the 21st century by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Therefore it may be one of the closest analogs in helping to understand Earth’s current and future conditions. USGS research on the mid-Pliocene is also the most comprehensive global reconstruction for any warm period.

Read the full article, published in Climate of the Past.

The USGS led this research through the Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping group. The primary collaborators in PRISM are Columbia University, Brown University, University of Leeds, University of Bristol, the British Geological Survey and the British Antarctic Survey. Learn more about PRISM research.

[Source: USGS press release]

Carnegie Mellon Researchers Help Lead Global Team To Improve Predictions About Air Quality and Climate

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling on December 17, 2009 at 8:25 am

Carnegie Mellon University’s Neil Donahue and Allen Robinson are working with a team of more than 60 scientists, including researchers from the University of Colorado and the NOAA’s Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Science, to develop a more holistic approach to improving climate and air quality prediction models. Donahue and Robinson are co-authors of a study that appears in the Dec. 11 issue of the journal Science.

Donahue, head of Carnegie Mellon’s Center for Atmospheric Particle Studies (CAPS), created a chemical map that provides some of the first clear images of how organic aerosols change once they become part of the atmosphere, while Robinson led an experimental team demonstrating those changes for aerosols emitted from diesel engines and wood fires.

“The atmosphere acts like Dan Aykroyd’s Bass-O-Matic. It makes similar looking goop almost no matter what you start with; could be diesel soot, could be wood smoke, could be molecules emitted by trees. Once the atmosphere is done, it all looks the same,” said Donahue, an atmospheric chemist.

“The blurring of the emissions of different sources is potentially a very important simplification, which is key to improving air quality and climate models,” said Robinson, an engineer whose research focuses on the sources of atmospheric aerosols.

“Atmospheric processing alters the effects of aerosols on climate and human health. It appears to greatly simplify the effect of the aerosols from different sources on cloud formation and rainfall,” Robinson said.

Donahue reports that his map tracks two key properties — volatility (the tendency to evaporate) and the oxygen to carbon ratio — that evolve as particles make their way through the atmosphere. “This ratio is important because it is an indicator of how much the organic matter is gaining oxygen and building up on particles floating in the air. The chemical roadmap also can help people predict the ability of the particles to participate in cloud formation,” Donahue said.

For more than a decade, Carnegie Mellon researchers have been working to pinpoint the sources and effects of harmful atmospheric particles. Better known as PM2.5, these tiny, almost invisible particles can be breathed more easily into the lungs than larger dust particles and can have adverse effects on human health.

“Pittsburgh suffers from high PM levels, due to a combination of high regional background levels and local emissions, many of them organic,” Robinson said. “This new map will help us understand how and when these two sources interact to create local pollutant hot spots.”

“This new collaborative effort will take a lot of mystery out of how and where these airborne particles go and how they impact both humans and our climate,” said Donahue, whose work focuses on chemical production and transformation of particles in the atmosphere.

The research was funded with grants from the National Science Foundation, the U.S. Department of Energy and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The research team included scientists from more than 30 institutes and international collaborators from England, Switzerland, China, Japan, Mexico, Germany, Sweden and Finland.

[Source: Carnegie Mellon press release]

GIS Aids Study of Alternative Energy Potential in Singapore

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on December 16, 2009 at 1:06 pm

…from WILD Singapore News…

“Tropical Marine Science Institute (TMSI) research fellow Durairaju Kumaran Raju said a geographic information system (GIS) software was used to store and analyse various sources of data such as geographical and natural physical information fed into it.

“The maps produced by the GIS software allowed researchers to spot regions with high or low potential for developing sources of renewable energy, for example, geothermal power.

“This knowledge will allow investors to put their money in the right places.”

Space Agencies Join Forces to Systematically Observe Climate Variables

In Climate Change, Science on December 16, 2009 at 12:48 pm

Over 30 000 people from 190 nations are gathered at the two-week UN Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen. On Thursday about 150 distinguished guests attended an ESA-hosted side event entitled ‘Global Monitoring of our Climate: the Essential Climate Variables’.

During the event, speakers from various agencies highlighted the role that Earth observation satellites play in providing systematic global climate observations. These observations are essential for climate change research and for managing mitigation and adaptation strategies.

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has long recognised the need for global observations of climate variables in order to quantify the state of our climate. Within ESA’s Climate Change Initiative a set of long-term global records of essential climate variables will be provided using space technology.

These data are required by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) – an organisation in the framework of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) – to support the UNFCCC and the International Panel on Climate Change.

Opening the side event, Dr Stephen Briggs, ESA’s Head of Earth Observation Science, Applications and Future Technologies Department, explained how ESA is responding to the needs of UNFCCC with its new Climate Change Initiative.

“ESA has developed the Climate Change Initiative to generate, preserve and give access to long-term data sets of the essential climate variables and make them freely available to climate research and modelling communities worldwide,” Briggs said.

The initiative will build on the availability of Europe’s global data sets and on data delivered by a network of other space agencies. It will also guarantee the provision of space-based information for the future, in a form readily usable by scientific communities and government bodies.

Data from ESA satellites going back three decades, combined with data from new missions, will be used to produce information on a wide range of climate variables such as greenhouse-gas concentrations, sea-ice extent and thickness, and sea-surface temperature and height.

The Climate Change Initiative will implement all actions necessary to generate essential climate variables, including long-term data preservation, periodic reprocessing of the long-term climate archive, recalibration, algorithm development, product generation and validation, and quality assessment of climate records in the context of climate models.

These activities will be implemented by ESA, in partnership with key users (GCOS, UNFCCC), space agencies, relevant players in the field of climate change research and monitoring (EC, WMO, NOAA (the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration), EUMETSAT and national programmes).

At the event, Gilberto Camara, Director of the Brazilian Institute for Space Research (INPE) and CEOS Chair, described how space agencies are supporting climate observations in areas like greenhouse-gas and forest monitoring.

“Operational monitoring of climate using Earth observation is essential. This cannot be done alone. Therefore, there is a need for space agencies to coordinate and work together,” Camara said. “Earth observation is the area that has increased the most in terms of budgets in the last few years and will increase more in the years to come. The ‘data democracy’ needs to reach the masses.”

Carolin Richter, Director of GCOS Secretariat, also underscored the need for getting data to developing countries, saying she would like to see the objective for the free exchange of data achieved.

ESA’s Head of the Earth Observation Projects Section, Olivier Arino, presented the Agency’s fleet of Earth-observing satellites, including the Earth Explorers and Sentinels, and explained how data from these can contribute to studies on the global carbon cycle, sea-level height and temperatures and sea ice. He also demonstrated how satellites are being used for fire and ocean-colour monitoring.

Chairing the event, Briggs was on hand to recount ESA’s activities on monitoring forests, which were developed as part of the GMES (Global Monitoring for Environment and Security) services. The Forest Monitoring project was initiated to help establish a mechanism for measuring deforestation. A reliable procedure for validated, verified monitoring of forests, based on satellite data, will be needed to underpin any political agreement on schemes such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD) under the UNFCCC.

Under REDD, countries that are willing and able to reduce emissions from deforestation would be financially compensated for doing so. Previous approaches to curb global deforestation have so far been unsuccessful, however, REDD provides a new framework to allow deforesting countries to break this historical trend.

European Environmental Agency Director Jacqueline McGlade spoke at the event about the impacts of climate change, giving the need to monitor the speed at which glaciers are changing as an example. “Political decision-makers count money; we will make them count water, clean air and forests. It is very important to have updated observations and long-term continuity of data. Climate change impact is a reality. Space tells us a great deal and being on the ground tells us even more. The combination of the two is essential.”

[Source: European Space Agency news release]

Traditional Knowledge Meets GIS in Climate Change Battle

In Climate Change, GIS, Social Science on December 16, 2009 at 12:45 pm

…from IPS News…

“Marilyn Wallace, a land conservation coordinator from New Queensland, Australia and a member of the Kuku Nyungkal clan, said she and her band were given a new beginning after being granted autonomy over their homelands. She urged the official delegates to take the time to “stop, look, listen and learn”.

“Wallace and 14 other forest rangers manage their homelands in collaboration with Australian resource officials. The team is in the process of conducting a biological inventory of their range, incorporating traditional knowledge with cutting edge GIS digital mapping systems.

“”We are preserving the wisdom of the elders with modern technology,” she said, a reminder that native people are not just victims of climate change but key players in the protection and preservation of ecosystems.”

Forest Carbon Management: New GIS Best Practices e-Book from ESRI

In Books, Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on December 16, 2009 at 8:53 am

“Allowing earth’s forests to thrive and do their job of carbon sequestration is essential to reducing the threat of climate change. Technology offers hope to the greenhouse phenomenon caused by industrial society. One such technology is ESRI’s ArcGIS, which offers scientists, decision makers, and policy implementers a critical tool for obtaining information they need to heal our planet. GIS allows temporal climate data to be visualized, contrasted, and forecasted. Use ArcGIS to study current land use, land-use change, and what-if scenarios for responsible planning.”

National Council for Science and the Environment Releases “The Climate Solutions Consensus”

In Books, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on December 16, 2009 at 8:13 am

With the world’s eyes focused on the climate talks in Copenhagen, the US National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) announces publication of its first  book.  The Climate Solutions Consensus, written by David Blockstein and Leo Wiegman, describes in non-technical language what we know about climate change, and the solution paths available today for climate mitigation and adaptation.  It presents 39 reasons why we need to act now to control climate change.

Most importantly, the NCSE book describes ways that we can work together now to foster solutions. The book proposes 35 climate actions for immediate consideration, many of which are on the table in Copenhagen this month.

The NCSE National Conference on Science, Policy and the Environment, in 2008 brought together more than 1,300 research and policy experts around the topic of Climate Change: Science and Solutions. The ideas, research, and policy options presented and discussed at that conference served as the starting point for this book. The recommendations developed in breakout discussions around topics such as agriculture, buildings, coastal and urban management, education, energy, forestry, health, human population and international partnerships form the basis for the 35 climate actions.

The National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Agency (NOAA) announced yesterday atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide reached record highs of 385 parts per million at the end of 208. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), announced this week that the years 2000-2009 is thus far the warmest decade on record.

The Climate Solutions Consensus: What We Know and What To Do About It places these trends into perspective for the average citizen and offers practical and game-changing pathways available to business, government, and citizens.  It is published by Island Press, the leading non-profit publisher of environmental books.

The book’s package offers special features designed to help teachers of climate policy courses or citizens involved in developing local climate action plans. The NCSE and authors have prepared an extensive website on NCSE’s content rich Encyclopedia of Earth. The web site www.eoearth.org/article/Climate_Solutions_Consensus offers extra discussions not available in the print version, including illustrations and figures. In addition, every bibliographic reference in the book is accompanied by a hyperlink to the original source from the book’s website.  This should help readers follow the latest research and policy developments.

Visit http://NCSEonline.org/ClimateSolutions/ for links to the extra content, the Climate Change: Science and Solutions conference website (including videos of presentations by John Holdren, now President Obama’s science advisor, Mohan Munasinghe (IPCC Vice Chair), James E. Rogers, (Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer, Duke Energy Corporation), Sarah James, (Alaskan Gwitch’in Steering Committee and Goldman Environmental prize-winner), Bill McKibben (350.org), Abigail Kimbell, (then Chief, US Forest Service), Congressman Jay Inslee (Washington), scientists Stephen Schneider, Bob Corell, Tom Lovejoy and many others, recommendations for action, climate education resources and much more.

The website http://NCSEonline.org/ClimateSolutions/ also contains a link to the Island Press website where you can order the book. NCSE and Island Press are pleased to offer a 25% discount off the listed price of $30 paper and $60 hard cover. Use the code 25source on your order form to receive the discount.  Customers in Europe and the Middle East should contact info@oppuk.co.uk to order the book.

The National Council for Science and the Environment (NCSE) is a national non-partisan organization with a mission to improve the scientific basis for environmental decisionmaking.

Humanitarian Implications of Climate Change: New Maps from CARE International

In Climate Change, GIS on December 16, 2009 at 7:02 am

“Human-induced climate change is modifying patterns of extreme weather, including floods, cyclones and droughts. In many cases, climate change is making these hazards more intense, more frequent, less predictable and/or longer lasting. This magnifies the risk of ‘disasters’ everywhere, but especially in those parts of the world where there are already high levels of human vulnerability.

“This study identifies the most likely humanitarian implications of climate change for the next 20-30 year period. The authors use Geographical Information Systems (GIS) to map specific hazards associated with climate change – specifically: floods, cyclones and droughts – and place them in relation to factors influencing vulnerability. The results identify hotspots of high humanitarian risk under changing climatic conditions.”

ESRI Supports Guyana’s Low-Carbon Development Strategy

In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS on December 15, 2009 at 8:18 pm

GIS Technology for Carbon Accounting and Tropical Forest Management

In an effort to mitigate the effects of climate change, the South American nation of Guyana is developing the world’s first national Low-Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) using enterprise geographic information system (GIS) technology and expertise from ESRI. The environmental technology company will provide Guyana with software for use in national carbon accounting and sustainable management of forests.

In a national announcement, Guyana’s President Bharrat Jagdeo, described the goal of LCDS: “Our low-carbon strategy combats deforestation, a factor contributing to climate change, without slowing down national development or compromising our people’s sovereignty over the forest. The emerging carbon market provides us with a unique opportunity to use the global economy to save the world’s rain forests by putting a value on them.”

ESRI President Jack Dangermond met with President Jagdeo at the Office of Guyana’s Permanent Mission to the United Nations and committed ESRI to support the country’s LCDS initiative.

“ESRI’s commitment brings vital technology for studying the effects of the forest on the planet,” said President Jagdeo. “The combination of GIS software, training, and other capacity-building efforts will provide Guyana with the tools it needs to scientifically measure and analyze our natural resources effectively. With GIS, we can support responsible resource management decisions that benefit generations to follow.”

“ESRI’s support stems from a longtime goal to advance sustainable environments and economies,” noted Dangermond. “GIS has become an integral component in the development of new carbon accounting methodologies. It adds the rigor of science to a decision support system that validates a credible carbon exchange mechanism.”

The government of Norway, the World Bank, the Clinton Climate Initiative, and McKinsey and Company are working with Guyana to implement the LCDS. Norway is one of the key countries backing Guyana’s move to use its forests for carbon financing and payment for forest conservation now. This arrangement allows future innovations, including an eventual forest carbon credit system as such a market evolves. This strategy aligns with the United Nations Collaborative Programme on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries (UN-REDD), a climate change mitigation scheme created to pay developing countries for conserving their tropical forests.

GIS is the core technology of Guyana’s monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) system. Building on work done in country, the MRV will integrate field observations with satellite imagery and other geographic data using methodologies consistent with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) guidelines for measuring, reporting, and verification. Guyana’s MRV will be a system for data sharing and the cross-sector analysis that is essential for effective climate change research, mitigation, and adaptation planning. This enterprise approach enables the transparent disclosure of land-use dynamics and the status of natural resources for Guyana’s citizens, indigenous communities, investors, partners, and the international carbon science community.

ESRI continues to work with countries around the world, such as New Zealand, Australia, Canada, and the United States of America, to design solution models that offer a credible scientific approach to measuring, reporting, and verifying carbon emissions and sequestration. These systems incorporate ESRI’s robust imagery management, integrated workflows, spatial modeling, and analysis capabilities to help countries use reliable data and consider scientific evidence in their decision-making processes.

President Jagdeo intends to present Guyana’s LCDS at the 2009 United Nations Climate Change Conference in Copenhagen, Denmark, this December. Representatives of participating nations will discuss establishing emissions targets for industrialized countries and a method for financing mitigation and adaptation actions by developing countries.

[Source:  ESRI press release]

Climate Crisis: Fixing Systems, Not Symptoms

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on December 15, 2009 at 8:07 pm

…from WiserEarth…

“Climate instability is a symptom of systems that can be fixed. So why does everyone keep trying to fix the symptom?

“Year after year, the list of planet-sized problems gets longer and the problems seem to get worse. Climate is just one of many such problems. Weird, isn’t it, that billions of bright people can collectively make such a stupid mess of things? Einstein offered an explanation, that problems can’t be solved with the same kind of thinking that causes them. People have been trying to sort out climate change and poverty and ecosystem destruction and everything else with habits of thought that unintentionally block any effective solution. Oops!”

ESRI President Jack Dangermond Invites Online Discussion on Climate Change at Spatial Roundtable

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on December 10, 2009 at 4:25 pm

Conversation Coincides with COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark

On December 9, 2009, ESRI president Jack Dangermond opened an online discussion about the value of geographic information systems (GIS) to develop programs for carbon accounting and environmental sustainability. The conversation runs concurrently with the United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP15) in Copenhagen, Denmark. ESRI’s hosted Spatial Roundtable will provide an engaging online venue for environmental professionals to weigh in on their vision for geospatial technologies’ role in meeting the climate change crisis.

“GIS has the robust capacity and capability to design the building blocks for carbon accounting systems including data, models, and delivery systems,” said Dangermond. “It provides the tools needed for analyzing environmental practices as well as developing and monitoring sustainable greenhouse gas reduction plans. GIS users represent a vast reservoir of knowledge, expertise, and best practices for applying this cornerstone technology to the science of climate change and understanding its impact on natural and human systems. I look forward to a lively online discussion at the Spatial Roundtable.”

Dangermond, an environmentalist who is a strong advocate of sustainable environmental management, has demonstrated a lifelong commitment to developing technology for monitoring and managing sustainable systems. In so doing, his company, ESRI, or Environmental Systems Research Institute, has become the world’s leader in GIS technology.

“I invite environmental professionals who use GIS in their work to visit the Spatial Roundtable to discuss how organizations and businesses use this technology to help us understand and respond to climate change,” Dangermond said.

Dangermond kicked off the climate change conversation by asking, “What do you think are the benefits of using GIS technology to advance climate change science?” He has invited special contributors to join the discussion and invites site visitors to add their comments. The climate change topic discussion will be active from December 13, 2009, through January 31, 2010, and will remain accessible for review in the Spatial Roundtable archive through 2011.

Visit www.spatialroundtable.com and join the conversation.

[Source: ESRI press release]

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Quotes on December 10, 2009 at 8:16 am

“Kennedy chose to go to the moon.  Our generation must choose to remain on planet Earth.”

–Maldives President Mohammad Nasheed

UGA Professors Win NASA Grant: Students Will Use Spatial Analysis to Study Effects of Climate Change on Birds

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis on December 8, 2009 at 3:52 pm

By Sandi Martin, Public Relations Coordinator, University of Georgia

University of Georgia professors in two schools have received a $447,000 grant from NASA that will offer undergraduate students a year-long combination of classroom and field classes studying the effects of climate change on birds.

NASA’s three-year global climate change education teaching and research grant funds instruction activities that are scheduled to begin with fall 2010 classes. The grant will fund fall, spring and summer courses that will teach students about global climate change models, research methods and designing field experiments. The final course in the lecture and lab series—to be held during summer classes—will have students perform their experiments in the field. That field experience will make students more competitive for graduate schools and jobs, said Jeffrey Hepinstall-Cymerman, an assistant professor of landscape ecology in the Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources. Hepinstall-Cymerman said the students will use NASA data, models, spatial analysis, statistics and field methods while studying the effects of climate change on birds and bird migration.

“This training offers a unique opportunity for students to obtain an understanding of the complexities and challenges involved in predicting floral and faunal responses to a changing climate, in addition to exposing them to important field and analytical methods at the cutting edge of applied ecology,” he said.

Hepinstall-Cymerman and two other professors in the Warnell School, Robert Cooper and Michael Conroy, are lead investigators on the grant, which also includes Marshall Shepherd, a professor in the Franklin College of Arts and Sciences. As part of the grant, the team will install ground sensors at Whitehall Forest, a research forest located off campus and managed by Warnell, and at the Coweeta Long Term Ecological Research station to allow students to compare ground measurements with measurements made with NASA satellites. This will allow students to see how the satellite images covering large areas compare to detailed information gathered on the ground, Conroy explained. “This is an excellent example of how you use that technology to teach,” he said.

The effect of climate change on birds is sometimes overlooked when the controversial subject is debated, but Conroy notes that if springs continue to get warmer, then it affects when the primary food source for birds—insects—emerge. If birds don’t adjust to that change, he said, newly-hatched birds won’t have enough food.

Global climate models are key tools for studying aspects of climate change. Shepherd, through funding from a Northeast Georgia PRISM (Partnership for Reform in Science and Mathematics) grant, implemented a fully functional educational global climate model called EdGCM into weather-climate exercises in the department of geography. “I was familiar with the NASA-funded EdGCM model from my previous tenure at NASA and felt that it was the ideal platform for integrating climate modeling in an accessible manner for today’s ‘digital native’ students,” said Shepherd. He will assist with implementation of EdGCM into the project’s instructional activities and provide climate science expertise.

Although the NASA grant primarily funds instruction activities, the summer undergraduate research will offer undergraduate students the type of field research experience generally found only at the graduate level and will tie in with work Cooper is doing on breeding bird productivity along an elevational gradient at Coweeta. “The mountainside is a surrogate for climate change,” said Cooper, “and leafout and insect emergence will be later at higher elevations. Migrating birds that arrive in the spring to breed may be right on time to hit peak insect numbers at higher elevations, but not at lower sites, a phenomenon that is likely to be even more extreme with increasing global temperatures.”

[Source: University of Georgia press release]

Jack Dangermond in UNEP Climate Action 2009: “Climate Change Is a Geographic Problem…”

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography on December 8, 2009 at 3:07 pm

…in Climate Action 2009…

Climate Change Is a Geographic Problem That Requires a Geographic Solution

By Jack Dangermond, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc.

“Geography is a fundamental science that helps us describe the natural and human systems of our planet. Geography is central to studying systems that contribute to and are influenced by climate change. Geographic information systems (GIS) technology gives you a comprehensive understanding of complex systems so that you can make informed, actionable decisions. People use GIS to view and manage information about geographic places, analyze geographic relationships, and model geographic processes. GIS is the foundational technology that lets local, regional, and global organizations collect, manage, and analyze a myriad of physical, biological, and cultural data describing the Earth. It is proving to be very useful for climate change modeling, decision support, policymaking, prediction, response, and adaptation.”

Data Basin: Connecting Scientists, Practitioners, Managers, and Policy-makers with Spatial Datasets, Tools, and Expertise

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on December 8, 2009 at 10:51 am

“Data Basin is an innovative, online system that connects users with spatial datasets, tools, and expertise. Individuals and organization can explore and download a vast library of datasets, upload their own data, create and publish projects, form working groups, and produce customized maps that can be easily shared. The building blocks of Data Basin are datasets, maps, projects, people, groups, and centers.

“Data Basin’s tools are designed to meet the specific needs of scientists, practitioners, managers and policy-makers, yet Data Basin does not require any technical skills. Data Basin is designed for people interested in integrating spatial data into their daily work (i.e., inquiry, problem-solving, communicating messages, etc.).

“Data Basin contains geospatial information that resides in datasets. Data Basin contains four searchable categories of datasets: biological, physical, socio-economic, and imagery.  A dataset could be coordinates where a bird species has been observed, boundaries of land managed in various ways (e.g., US Forest Service), a thematic image of vegetation types, or the results of a model that shows changes in the habitat distribution of a species under different climate change scenarios. Data Basin is populated with a large and continually growing body of datasets, including both raw data (e.g., monitoring data on temperature and precipitation, road networks) and analytical results (e.g., projected changes in suitability for a species or ecosystem, interpretations, or recommendations).”

Developing a Routing Priority Map for Geospatial Modeling of CO2 Pipeline Deployment in the People’s Republic of China

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on December 8, 2009 at 8:32 am

…in The Journal of Young Investigators, Volume 19, Issue 18…

Ari A. Zwick

“Carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies are currently being researched as a potential component of a global portfolio of technologies to help reduce anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) to the atmosphere. In China, currently a leading emitter of CO2 and a potentially critical player in future carbon emissions reduction strategies, it is important to evaluate the economic feasibility of CCS to understand its potential for large-scale deployment. This paper describes the development of a high resolution geospatial model to assist in efforts to estimate the construction costs of pipelines for transport of CO2 from sources to storage sites. The model assigns relative weights to geographic features throughout mainland China to form a relative prioritization map that may be used to model pipeline routing along paths that are likely to represent the lowest cost paths. The final routing priority map (RPM) differentiates between areas according to their relative cost for routing from sources to sinks. The RPM represents the weighted combination of all overlapping geographic and cultural features included in the model. By using the RPM in conjunction with a routing protocol, grid cells with low priority values (i.e., those for which construction and/or societal costs would be higher) would be avoided in favor of cells with higher priority values, all else equal. This mode of estimating least-cost pipeline routing could represent a significant enhancement to existing methodologies used to estimate CO2 transport costs for CCS in China.”

GIS Solutions for Pacific Isles Saluted

In Climate Change, GIS, Science on December 7, 2009 at 12:15 pm

…from the Fiji Times…

“Geographical Information System and Remote Sensing technologies are sometimes the most practical way to get fast and accurate data on geographic changes in Pacific Island Countries.

“Pacific Islands Applied Geoscience Commission director Cristelle Pratt said many island countries are were using these technologies for vegetation mapping to monitor the amount and extent of coconut, mangrove and other vegetation cover for a range of reasons.

“She said the technology could also help prepare for and deal with natural disasters and climate change.”

Scientists Believe Current Models Do Not Accurately Represent the Sensitivity of Global Temperatures to CO2

In Climate Change, Modeling, Science on December 7, 2009 at 11:13 am

…from The Telegraph…

“The scientists compared temperature reconstructions from sediments in the ocean floor with a global climate simulation model which aimed to map climate three million years ago.

“Study leader Dr Dan Lunt, from the University of Bristol, said: “We found that, given the concentrations of carbon dioxide prevailing three million years ago, the model originally predicted a significantly smaller temperature increase than that indicated by the reconstructions. This led us to review what was missing from the model.”

“They believe current models do not accurately represent the sensitivity of global temperatures to CO2.

“Climate models used by bodies such as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change often fail to take full account of such effects, said the researchers, whose findings are reported in the journal Nature Geoscience.”

Post Doctoral Research Scientist, Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography on December 7, 2009 at 10:58 am

The Center for Remote Sensing of Ice Sheets (CReSIS) located at the University of Kansas is a Science and Technology Center established by the National Science Foundation in 2005. Its mission is to understand and predict the role of ice sheets in sea level change.

CReSIS is currently inviting applications to fill a post-doctoral position in geophysical data management and processing of CReSIS field data.

Required Qualifications

  • Ph.D. in Geography, Geosciences, or related field.
  • Proficient in the use of GIS software tools as evidenced by applicable coursework or work history.
  • Strong written communication skills as demonstrated by application materials and publications.

More information

Ph.D. Graduate Assistantship to Investigate Spatially‐explicit Relationships between Human‐induced Stressors and Environmental Landscape Factors, University of Florida

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on December 7, 2009 at 10:47 am

Fall semester 2010 (mid Aug. 2010)

Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL.

Applications are invited for the position of a Ph.D. student to investigate spatially‐explicit relationships between human‐induced stressors (such as land use and climate change) and environmental landscape factors (soil, climate, land use / land cover, terrain, geology, and hydrology). A goal of this research is to gain insight into biophysical feedbacks (soil‐vegetation‐water‐atmosphere interactions) and carbon dynamics modulating sequestration and/or losses of carbon in a mixed upland/aquatic ecosystem.

Simulation models (e.g. DayCent) and/or mixed deterministic/stochastic methods will be used to conduct this research.

Desired skills: Ecosystem modeling, database management, geostatistics, statistics, GIS, and environmental sciences or related discipline.

Contact Sabine Grunwald, Associate Professor, sabgru@ufl.edu (352‐392‐1951 x204) and submit a curriculum vitae and letter of intend to apply (pre‐screening).

For admission into the Ph.D. Program offered by the Soil and Water Science Department, University of Florida (http://soils.ifas.ufl.edu) a complete application must be submitted following the guidelines at http://soils.ifas.ufl.edu/academics/application.html.

Application deadline is March 30, 2010

New Book: The Impact of Climate Change on European Lakes

In Books, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling on December 7, 2009 at 10:37 am

Edited by Glen George

“In this book, scientists from eleven countries summarize the results of an EU project (CLIME) that explored the effects of observed and projected changes in the climate on the dynamics of lakes in Northern, Western and Central Europe. Historical measurements from eighteen sites were used to compare the seasonal dynamics of the lakes and to assess their sensitivity to local, regional and global-scale changes in the weather. Simulations using a common set of water quality models, perturbed by six climate-change scenarios, were then used to assess the uncertainties associated with the projected changes in the climate. The book includes chapters on the phenology and modelling of lake ice, the supply and recycling of nitrogen and phosphorus, the flux of dissolved organic carbon and the growth and the seasonal succession of phytoplankton. There are also chapters on the coherent responses of lakes to changes in the circulation of the atmosphere, the development of a web-based Decision Support System and the implications of climate change for the Water Framework Directive.”

Resource for the Future Launches Global Adaptation Atlas

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on December 7, 2009 at 9:27 am

“The Adaptation Atlas is a dynamic mapping tool, developed by Resources for the Future, in collaboration with a diverse network of partners.

“As adaptation is both a global and a local problem affecting populations and ecosystems around the world, it is natural that responses will be sector-, site-, and population-specific. Success depends on site-specific attention and effective large-scale real-time coordination of impacts and actions. Without this, we run the risk of investing in adaptation measures that could undercut one another.”

Spatio-temporal Analysis of Alpine Ecotones: A Spatial Explicit Model Targeting Altitudinal Vegetation Shifts

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis, Temporal Analysis on December 7, 2009 at 8:11 am

…in Ecological Modelling, article in press…

Ramón Alberto Díaz-Varela, Roberto Colombo, Michele Meroni, María Silvia Calvo-Iglesias, Armando Buffoni, and Antonio Tagliaferri

“There is general agreement in literature that Alpine vegetation belt ecotones have shown a trend of upward migration in the last few decades. Despite the potential of such shifts as indicators of global change effects in mountain ecosystems, there are relatively few works focused on their assessment in a systematic and spatially explicit way. In this work our aim is to quantify the altitudinal shifts and analyse the spatial pattern dynamics of mountain ecotones. We developed a novel procedure to delineate the current and former state of three characteristic mountain ecotones, which we formalised as forest, tree and tundra lines. Our approach is based on the recognition of altitudinal extreme outposts identified with ecotone locations at a slope scale. The integration of multi-temporal datasets allows the identification and quantification of altitudinal advances and retreats in the outpost locations for a given period. We tested the method in a section of the Italian Alps for the period 1957–2003. Results show a general trend of an increase in altitude for the three ecotones, despite the occurrence of occasional decreases. We estimate decadal altitude increments of 25 m for forest line, 13 m for treeline and 11 m for tundra line. We also identified changes in ecotone spatial morphology between the two dates, with significant implications in connectivity and colonisation dynamics.”

UTSA Research Sheds Light on Central Texas Geology and Climate Change

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis on December 3, 2009 at 9:32 am

…from USTA Today…

“Research projects by Stuart Birnbaum, University of Texas at San Antonio (UTSA) associate professor of geological sciences, and Daniel Lupton, a UTSA master’s student in geological sciences, reveal new information about Central Texas’ climate and water sources.

“Birnbaum’s team researched the ancient climate preserved in the chemical signature of samples from Kimble County, Texas, by taking rock samples from a 12-meter cliff exposure of the Hensel paleosol, an ancient soil estimated to be approximately 112 million years old.”

Ethnographic maps built using cutting-edge technology may help Amazon tribes win forest carbon payments

In Climate Change, GIS, Geography, Social Science on November 30, 2009 at 10:09 am

…from mongabay.com…

“A new handbook lays out the methodology for cultural mapping, providing indigenous groups with a powerful tool for defending their land and culture, while enabling them to benefit from some 21st century advancements. Cultural mapping may also facilitate indigenous efforts to win recognition and compensation under a proposed scheme to mitigate climate change through forest conservation. The scheme—known as REDD for reducing emissions from deforestation and degradation—will be a central topic of discussion at next month’s climate talks in Copenhagen, but concerns remain that it could fail to deliver benefits to forest dwellers.

“Much of the Amazon rainforest remains occupied by tribal groups. While few of these live as conjured in the imagination, the state of the forests in their territories is a testament to their approach to managing lands. But like the Amazon itself, these groups face new pressures from the outside world. For the indigenous, the lure of urban culture is strong—cities seem to offer the promise of affluence and the conveniences of an easy life. But in leaving their forest homes indigenous peoples are usually met with a stark reality: the skills that serve them so well in the forest don’t translate well to an urban setting. The odds are stacked against them; they arrive near the bottom of the social ladder, often not proficient in the language and customs of city dwellers. The lucky ones may find work in factories or as day laborers and security guards, but many eventually return to the countryside. Some re-integrate into their villages, others return in a completely different capacity than when they departed. They may join the ranks of miners and loggers who trespass on indigenous lands, ferreting out deals that pit members of the same tribe against each other in order to exploit the resources they steward. As tribes are fragmented, and forests fall, indigenous culture—and the profound knowledge contained within—is lost. The world is left a poorer place, culturally and biologically.”

The Copenhagen Diagnosis: Updating the World on the Latest Climate Science

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on November 30, 2009 at 7:53 am

Climate Change Accelerating Beyond Expectations, Urgent Emissions Reductions Required, Say Leading Scientists

Global ice-sheets are melting at an increased rate; Arctic sea-ice is disappearing much faster than recently projected, and future sea-level rise is now expected to be much higher than previously forecast, according to a new global scientific synthesis prepared by some of the world’s top climate scientists.

In a special report called ‘The Copenhagen Diagnosis’, the 26 researchers, most of whom are authors of published IPCC reports, conclude that several important aspects of climate change are occurring at the high end or even beyond the expectations of only a few years ago.

The report also notes that global warming continues to track early IPCC projections based on greenhouse gas increases.  Without significant mitigation, the report says global mean warming could reach as high as 7 degrees Celsius by 2100.

The Copenhagen Diagnosis, which was a year in the making, documents the key findings in climate change science since the publication of the landmark Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report in 2007.

The new evidence to have emerged includes:

  • Satellite and direct measurements now demonstrate that both the Greenland and Antarctic ice-sheets are losing mass and contributing to sea level rise at an increasing rate.
  • Arctic sea-ice has melted far beyond the expectations of climate models. For example, the area of summer sea-ice melt during 2007-2009 was about 40% greater than the average projection from the 2007 IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.
  • Sea level has risen more than 5 centimeters over the past 15 years, about 80% higher than IPCC projections from 2001. Accounting for ice-sheets and glaciers, global sea-level rise may exceed 1 meter by 2100, with a rise of up to 2 meters considered an upper limit by this time.  This is much higher than previously projected by the IPCC.  Furthermore, beyond 2100, sea level rise of several meters must be expected over the next few centuries.
  • In 2008 carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels were ~40% higher than those in 1990. Even if emissions do not grow beyond today’s levels, within just 20 years the world will have used up the allowable emissions to have a reasonable chance of limiting warming to less than 2 degrees Celsius.

The report concludes that global emissions must peak then decline rapidly within the next five to ten years for the world to have a reasonable chance of avoiding the very worst impacts of climate change.

To stabilize climate, global emissions of carbon dioxide and other long-lived greenhouse gases need to reach near-zero well within this century, the report states.

[Source: News Release]

GISCA 2010: Central Asia GIS Conference, Kyrgyz Republic, 27-28 May 2010

In Climate Change, Conferences, Environmental Science, GIS, GIScience on November 30, 2009 at 7:23 am

Water: Life, Risk, Energy and Landuse
May 27-28, 2010 – Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic

The Austria-Central Asia Centre for GIScience at the Kyrgyz State University of Construction, Transportation and Architecture, and the Centre for Geoinformatics (Z_GIS), University of Salzburg, Austria are proud to announce the:
4th GIS-in-Central-Asia Conference – GISCA 2010. The main objectives of this conference are to bring together GIS academics, researchers and practitioners in the Central Asian countries and encourage international cooperation and knowledge exchange in GIS education. Geographic Information Science and Technologies have evolved into a key instrument for managing our societies, environments and infrastructures, as well as individuals’ daily lives. Continued success of this development depends on cooperation across disciplines, open information policies and a highly educated workforce. The GISCA series of conferences aims at building a Central Asian network of GIS professionals supporting the sustained development of this region into an environmentally friendly, secure and prosperous society.

In 2010, GISCA is focused on the main theme of WATER:

  • Life: WATER for drinking and agriculture
  • Risk: WATER posing a threat to settlements
  • Energy: WATER for renewable hydropower
  • Landuse: WATER controlling regional landuse

Particularly due to climate change, increasing pressure on resources, regional conflicts and social dynamics, quality and quantity of water supply are critical factors in developing our societies. GIScience offers an indispensable set of instruments for managing the water cycle.

Information and Registration

http://gisca10.aca-giscience.org

Press Contact

Dagmar Baumgartner
Public Relations
University of Salzburg | Z_GIS Centre for Geoinformatics
Hellbrunnerstr. 34 | 5020 Salzburg | Austria
phone: + 43 (0) 662 8044 5224
fax: +43 (0) 662 8044 182

Studying Climate Change: A New Tool Mixes Weather Data and GIS

In Climate Change, Education, GIS, Science on November 23, 2009 at 7:39 am

…an article written by Helen M. Cox, associate professor of Geography at California State University, Northridge, appearing at GeoReport…

“A tool developed at California State University, Northridge, now converts NCDC historical climate data to a feature-class format. A menu-driven interface provides access to point temperature and precipitation data that can be interpolated easily through the tools provided in the Spatial Analyst toolbox to generate raster layers for any region in the United States averaged over any desired temporal period. Thirty-year baseline averages for the 1950-1980 period, for example, have been pre-calculated and stored in a geodatabase to permit easy calculation of anomalies relative to this period, providing the framework for climate-change studies.

“This GIS climate tool was written in Visual Basic using ArcObjects and reads data from the daily weather observations of more than 20,000 cooperative weather stations in the United States. Although the period of record can begin as early as 1850, most station histories begin in 1948 or soon thereafter. The data were obtained from NCDC.“

Graduate Research Assistantships at Ohio University for Study of Local Knowledge and Climate Change Adaptation in Tanzania

In Climate Change, GIS, Geography, Social Science on November 23, 2009 at 7:08 am

Department of Geography, Ohio University

Two two-year research assistantships at the M.A. level are available through a new project on local knowledge and climate change adaptation in Tanzania supported by the National Science Foundation’s Geography and Spatial Science (GSS) Program. The project – Linking Local Knowledge and Local Institutions for the Study of Adaptive Capacity to Climate Change: Participatory GIS in Northern Tanzania – investigates the myriad ways in which human, social, and institutional capital enable households and communities to draw on local knowledge and outside specialist knowledge to moderate the negative effects of greater climatic instability on rural livelihoods.

In addition to completing required courses for the M.A. program over two academic years (2010-2011 and 2011-2012), the successful candidates will contribute to an international interdisciplinary research project. We expect applicants to develop a thesis project that contributes to the project’s research objectives.

One graduate research assistant will work on the development of online multimedia applications derived from a participatory GIS. Background or interest in cartography and web-based mapping is desirable.

A second research assistant will work with the research team on the implementation of the project’s participatory field methodology and
contribute to data analysis. The student’s interests should be focused on environment- development interactions (e.g., the dynamics of resource access, political, environmental or cultural-linguistic dimensions of local knowledge systems, gendered aspects of climate change adaptation). Proficiency in Kiswahili or interest in learning Kiswahili at Ohio University is a plus.

The assistantships include two academic years of tuition waiver and stipend for students enrolled in the Geography M.A. program. Additional support is available for student field research activities in Tanzania.

Eligible students may also apply for a Foreign Language and Area Studies (FLAS) Fellowship from OU’s Center for African Studies: http://www.internat ionalstudies. ohio.edu/ app-info/ flas.html

The Ohio University Department of Geography is a dynamic department with 150 undergraduate majors and a graduate program that has expanded to 25. Faculty in the department offer coursework and conduct research on topics that bring together the Earth’s human and physical components and focus on issues from local to global scales. Graduate students also benefit from the resources of Ohio University’s Center for African Studies, a National Resource Center (NRC) for Africa, which creates additional opportunity for the interdisciplinary study of African languages, societies, and environments.

The application deadline is February 15 for Fall 2010 admission.

For more information regarding the application procedure, consult the department and Graduate College websites: http://www.ohio. edu/geography& http://www.ohio. edu/graduate/ ).

For more information about the assistantships, contact Tom Smucker smucker@ohio. edu.

Research Challenges to Understanding, Predicting, and Restoring Landscape Changes Identified

In Books, Climate Change, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Geography, Science on November 19, 2009 at 7:57 am

Nine research challenges and four research initiatives that are poised to advance the study of how Earth’s landscapes change were unveiled today in a new report by the National Research Council.  These challenges and initiatives could open the path to resolving environmental issues, from coastal erosion to landslides, by helping predict how processes such as wind, ice, water, tectonics, and living organisms drive changes in the Earth’s surface.

The development of new analytic and computing technologies and the heightened demand for scientific guidance in decision making concerning future landscape transformation and restoration have propelled research in Earth surface processes over the past two decades.  However, significant questions remain unanswered, which are addressed in these challenges and initiatives.

What does our planet’s past tell us about its future? The surface of the Earth records its own evolution, which scientists can examine through evidence in ice cores, sediments, and landforms.  Accelerating the ability for researchers to tap into that record could help determine how the surface environment alters through time and how it may change in the future.

How do geopatterns on Earth’s surface arise and what do they tell us about processes? From repeated patterns on sand dunes to similar shapes of barrier islands, myriad land patterns at all scales can be seen on the planet’s surface.  Scientists have found that these geopatterns often emerge spontaneously, evolve over time, and are resilient, as unstable patterns do not last for long periods.  Geopatterns provide a template for understanding many Earth surface processes, which could help scientists predict how the surface will respond to natural and human-induced changes.

How do landscapes influence and record climate and the movement of large pieces of the Earth’s crust? One of the advances in the earth sciences is the recognition of interactions between climate and the movement of Earth’s tectonic plates.  For example, in mountain ranges developed from converging tectonic plates, prevailing winds may force clouds, rain, and glaciers to remain on one side of the range, which could increase erosion.  Such concentrated erosion draws more rock upward from within the Earth, increasing the height of the range and further affecting local climate patterns.  Scientists are searching to quantify the interactions and feedbacks among landscapes, tectonics, climate, and life.  For instance, how much could climate change increase rainfall, which in turn would increase the frequency of erosion from landslides?

How does the biogeochemical reactor of the Earth’s surface respond to and shape landscapes on local to global scales? The chemical erosion and weathering of bedrock and soil are among the least understood of the geological processes.  They are often major factors in how landscapes change because of their effects on climate, groundwater and river chemistry, strength of rocks, erosion, and availability of nutrients in soils.  Gaining insight into the nutrient cycle essential to both living organisms and climate, for example, will allow scientists to address the effects of human-induced changes to land and groundwater.

What are the transport laws that govern the evolution of the Earth’s surface? Quantitative approaches are needed to define how and at what rates a process like erosion can shape the landscape.  Significant progress has been made in developing and applying mathematical formulas known as “transport laws” to gauge the rate at which soil is transferred or a river can cut through bedrock.  Nonetheless, scientists still need to establish the transport laws for processes such as landsliding, transport and deposit of mud, and glacial and chemical erosion.

How do ecosystems and landscapes co-evolve? Living organisms strongly influence the form and pace of surface erosion, and they control the nutrient cycle with simultaneous effects on climate, hydrology, erosion, and topography.  Coordinated efforts to identify connections among life forms, surface processes, and landscapes are under way at various field observatories.  However, greater knowledge is needed to develop predictive models and perform experiments that explore the causes, effects, rates, and magnitudes of life-landscape interactions.

What controls landscape resilience to change? Some areas of Earth’s surface are more vulnerable than others to change.  For example, polar and glacial regions are nearing or are in a state of flux predicted to continue with global warming.  Scientists need to better understand how rapid and abrupt changes occur and the factors and processes that make landscapes resilient to these changes.

How will Earth’s surface evolve in the new era? The term “Anthropocene” has been suggested to describe a new era in which humans have become dominant.  Understanding, predicting, and adjusting to changing landscapes increasingly altered by humans constitute pressing challenges, and science is far from developing a general theory of coupled human-natural systems.

How can science contribute to a sustainable Earth surface? With increasing scientific knowledge of the causes and long-term effects of human-induced changes to land, a consensus has emerged that at least some of these disrupted landscapes can and should be restored or redesigned.  Researchers, practitioners, policymakers, and the public have recently begun to examine the success and limitations of past restoration efforts.  Earth surface scientists can contribute to these efforts and provide guidance in future decisions regarding natural and managed landscapes.

In addition, the report proposes four research initiatives, derived from the nine challenges, to provide promising pathways for scientific guidance on issues related to planning, mitigation, and response to changes in the Earth’s surface now and in the future.  The four research areas would delve into understanding interacting landscapes and climate, the co-evolution of ecosystems and landscapes, quantitative reconstruction of landscape dynamics across time scales, and the future of landscapes in the Anthropocene.

Copies of Landscapes on the Edge are available from the National Academies Press; tel. 202-334-3313 or 1-800-624-6242 or on the Internet at http://www.nap.edu.  Reporters may obtain a copy from the Office of News and Public Information (contacts listed above).

[Source: National Academies press release]

Geography Awareness Week: How Much Water is in the Ocean?

In Climate Change, Geography, Science on November 18, 2009 at 7:47 am

…from Science Daily…

“The calculation of variations in the sea level is relatively simple. It is by far more complicated to then determine the change in the water mass. A team of geodesists and oceanographers from the University of Bonn, as well as from the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences and the Alfred-Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Sciences, two centres of the Helmholtz Association, have now, for the first time succeeded in doing this. The researchers were able to observe short-term fluctuations in the spatial distribution of the ocean water masses. Their results are, amongst others, important for improved climate models.

“In order to determine the ocean volume in a certain region, one only needs to know, in addition to the topography of the seabed, the height of the sea level. For this purpose, researchers have long been resorting to gauging stations and satellite altimetric procedures. The ocean mass depends, however, not only on the volume, but also on the temperature and on the salt content. Water expands when heated. Warm water, thus, weighs less than the same quantity of cold water.”

Satellite Data Detects Ozone Hole

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Imagery, Video, Visualization on November 18, 2009 at 6:33 am

…from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory…

ozone

“The ozone layer protects Earth from harmful ultraviolet solar radiation. Ozone is a gas made of three oxygen atoms, and just like any other gas it circulates in the atmosphere. During the fall months, chemical reactions combine with circulation patterns high in the atmosphere to reduce the concentration of ozone over Antarctica. Areas with ozone concentrations less than 220 Dobson Units are called “holes” in the layer. NOAA’s polar orbiting satellites are used to monitor the ozone hole and the data taken from the POES satellites over the past year is show in this animation. In 2009, the ozone hole reached its 10th largest measured size since careful measurements began in 1979. It appears, though, that the ozone hole is repairing itself after passage of the Montreal Protocol in 1989 that banned the use of ozone-depleting compounds such as chlorofluorocarbons(CFC’s) and hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs).”

Arctic Sea Ice Reaches Third Lowest Minimum Extent

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Imagery, Video, Visualization on November 17, 2009 at 8:13 am

…from NOAA’s Environmental Visualization Laboratory…

seaice

“On Sept 12, 2009, the extent of sea ice in the Arctic reached the third lowest level ever recorded since satellite records began in 1979. The National Snow and Ice Data Center estimates that the overall extent dropped to 5.1 million square kilometers, well below the average minimum extent of 6.71 million square kilometers (1979-2000). Only 2007 and 2008 have had lower ice extents. The small increase in 2009 was mostly due to ice spreading caused by strong polar winds. Ice concentration and thickness, however, have not increased, making predictions about a rebound in Arctic ice premature at this moment.”

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Quotes on November 17, 2009 at 8:12 am

“Uncertainty is no longer an excuse not to do things.”

–Paul Warner

Growth Spurt in Tree Rings Prompts Questions About Climate Change

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on November 16, 2009 at 12:48 pm

nsflogoRecent growth in the rings of bristlecone pines in the western U.S. points to warmer temperatures at treeline

Anyone who has ever cut down a tree is familiar with the rings radiating out from the center of a tree trunk marking the tree’s age. Careful study of tree rings can offer much more: a rich record of history and indications of concerns for the future. Researchers Matthew Salzer and Malcolm Hughes of the University of Arizona’s Laboratory of Tree-Ring Research and their colleagues have analyzed tree-rings from bristlecone pine trees at the highest elevations, looking for the reasons behind an extraordinary surge in growth over the past 50 years. Their findings appear in the Nov. 16 early online edition of Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers studied bristlecone pines (Pinus longaeva) at three sites in California and Nevada, close to the upper elevation limit of tree growth. The tree-ring record showed wider rings in recent decades, indicating a surge in growth in the second half of the 20th century that was greater than at any time in the last 3,700 years.

“We’ve got a pretty strong pointer that temperature plays a part in this,” said Malcolm Hughes in describing the work. “So the puzzle is, why does it play a part in it for the trees near the treeline and not for those only 300, 400 feet lower down the mountain than them?”

To solve that puzzle, the research team took core samples, drawing from living and dead trees, which were well preserved in the cold, dry climate existing at the high elevation. They were able to chart ring width going back 4,600 years.

“We’re able to overlap the patterns from the dead wood with the inner part of the living trees, and that way move back in time, dating the samples as we go,” said Salzer.

They determined that fertilization from increased carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not adequately explain this kind of growth at the upper-forest level. What they found was that the bristlecone pines at treeline grow faster when temperatures are warmer-in contrast to the trees lower down the mountain, which grow faster with higher amounts of precipitation and when temperatures are cooler. In other words, it’s the chilly mountaintop climate that has been limiting growth for these particular trees.

So, the researchers say, that strongly points to warmer temperatures as a cause of the recent surge in growth for bristlecone pines. This finding has implications that reach beyond the state of the trees.

“What it means for the mountains, and the mountain environment, is probably treeline will be moving up, and there are some indications of that occurring,” said Salzer. “Other animal and plant species will have to shift up to accommodate the changing conditions.”

There is the potential for impact on humans as well.

“High mountains are our water towers. That’s where we store water as snow through the winter,” said Hughes. “And if we reduce the fraction of year for which that water is there as snow rather than running straight down as rain or evaporating, then this has pretty serious consequences for our future water supplies.”

This work was supported by the National Science Foundation through its paleoclimatology program.

[Source: National Science Foundation press release]

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Quotes on November 16, 2009 at 10:57 am

“GIS is the nervous system for the planet.”

–Jack Dangermond

GIS Shows 6,600 Homes Could End Up Under Water In Geelong, Australia

In Climate Change, GIS on November 16, 2009 at 6:52 am

…from the Geelong Advertiser…

“Up to 6600 Geelong homes will be under water if a frightening climate change forecast comes true … and there’s nothing you can do about it.

“The Department of Climate Change report relied on Geoscience Australia, CSIRO, the University of Tasmania and the GIS Team of the Land Management Branch in the Department of Climate Change for the technical risk analysis of residential properties.”

Keeping Climate Change Prediction In Perspective

In Climate Change, Modeling on November 16, 2009 at 6:51 am

…from Nature…

“In their efforts to make climate information more useful for adaptation decisions, scientists will need to be clear about the limits of climate prediction.

“Decision-makers from 155 nations agreed last month to establish the world’s first framework for ‘climate services’, an effort that will supply on-demand climate predictions to governments, businesses and individuals. By providing tailored information on how climate change will affect certain regions and sectors, the Global Framework for Climate Services will help the world “better adapt to the challenges of climate variability and change”1. Such was the promise issued by the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva on 4 September, following its World Climate Conference.

“Underlying the climate-services vision is an assumption that increased research investment in modelling will yield more skilful climate prediction, which will facilitate better adaptation decisions. This vision is ultimately of a new era in climate science, one in which seasonal weather forecasting and long-term climate projections will merge seamlessly, giving rise to decadal climate predictions that have the skill and reliability of weather forecasts. Provision of this data to local planners and policymakers will be a service to society. Speaking to delegates in Geneva, Jane Lubchenco, head of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration — the government body that is to lead US climate services — gave voice to that vision: “Imagine farmers being able to determine what to plant and where based on drought forecasts three to five years out.”"

Association of American Geographers Annual Meeting, 14-18 April 2010, Washington, DC: Geography and Climate Change

In Climate Change, Conferences, Geography on November 10, 2009 at 3:46 pm

aag“Start making plans for the 2010 AAG Annual Meeting in Washington, DC, home of the Association of American Geographers and the heart of the U.S. Federal Government.

“In addition to many scholarly presentations, the 2010 Meeting will feature opportunities for interactions with government agencies and will include keynote speakers from nonprofit groups and other influential nongovernmental organizations located in the nation’s capital. The District of Columbia is home to 174 foreign embassies, many high profile NGOs, and numerous universities.”

“Geography and Climate Change” has been designated as a key overarching theme of the 2010 AAG Annual meeting.

Climate Change…on Mars

In Climate Change, Science on November 9, 2009 at 3:56 pm

nasa-large…from NASA…

“One way or another, scientists believe, Mars must have lost its most precious asset: its thick atmosphere of carbon dioxide. CO2 in Mars’s atmosphere is a greenhouse gas, just as it is in our own atmosphere. A thick blanket of CO2 and other greenhouse gases would have provided the warmer temperatures and greater atmospheric pressure required to keep liquid water from freezing solid or boiling away.

“Over the last four billion years, Mars somehow lost most of that blanket. Scientists have proposed various theories for how that loss happened. Perhaps an asteroid impact blew most of the atmosphere into space in one catastrophic event. Or maybe erosion by the solar wind — a stream of charged particles emanating from the sun — could have slowly stripped the atmosphere away over eons. The planet’s surface might also have absorbed the CO2 and locked it up in minerals such as carbonate.”

Arab World’s Future is with Solar Energy

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on November 9, 2009 at 7:29 am

To what extent can GIS show the impacts of climate change in the Middle East?

What are the impacts of desalination on this region and its biodiversity? Is this visible with GIS?

Dr. Farouk Al Baz answers these questions and more in an interview with Gulf News.

Four Environmental Heresies: Stewart Brand at TED

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science, Video on November 6, 2009 at 1:19 pm

The man who helped usher in the environmental movement in the 1960s and ’70s has been rethinking his positions on cities, nuclear power, genetic modification and geo-engineering. This talk at the US State Department is a foretaste of his major new book, sure to provoke widespread debate.

stewart_brand_ted

Watch the video

Climate Change, Nitrogen Loss Threaten Plant Life in Arid Desert Soils

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling on November 6, 2009 at 8:27 am

Mojave Desert research shows that nitrogen is second only to water in importance

In the Mojave Desert winds howl across this hottest place in North America, blowing sands across Death Valley and through empty ghost towns, swirling across treeless land for hundreds of miles. But even in the otherworldly Mojave, life thrives. The Joshua tree (Yucca brevifolia), an indicator species for this desert, defines the Mojave’s boundaries. In spring when the rains come, brightly colored flowers bloom in profusion–nature’s paintbrush on an otherwise monotone landscape.

Now the Mojave’s plant life, sparse as it has always been, is facing new challenges. As Earth’s climate warms, arid soils lose more nitrogen, which could lead to deserts with even less plant life than they sustain today.

Available nitrogen is second only to water as the biggest constraint to biological activity in arid ecosystems, but ecologists have struggled to understand the balance of the input and output of nitrogen in deserts. For the first time, however, researchers have discovered a mechanism that balances the nitrogen budget in deserts: Higher temperatures cause nitrogen to escape as gas from desert soils.

The researchers’ results, published in this week’s issue of the journal Science, suggest that most climate change models need to be altered to consider these findings.

mojave2_f

Nitrogen loss in a non-desert system happens primarily through biological processes and water leaching. In a desert, in the summer, however, the soil layer heats up so much that microorganisms are not active enough to release nitrogen; neither is there enough water to cause significant leaching. Researchers have found that the heat itself causes large reactive nitrogen species evaporation. Credit: Zina Deretsky, National Science Foundation

“This discovery is completely reorganizing how we think about nitrogen in desert ecosystems,” said Robert Sanford, program director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)’s division of environmental biology, which funded the research.

In the past, researchers focused on biological mechanisms in which soil microbes near the surface produce nitrogen gas that dissipates into the air, but ecologists Jed Sparks and Carmody (“Carrie”) McCalley, both at Cornell University and co-authors of the paper, found that non-biological processes are playing a bigger role in nitrogen losses from soil to air.

“This is a way that nitrogen is lost from an ecosystem that people have never accounted for before,” said Sparks.  “It allows us to finally understand the dynamics of nitrogen in arid systems.”

He and McCalley used instruments sensitive enough to measure levels of nitrogen gases in parts per trillion. These instruments had never before been applied to soil measurements.

The researchers covered small patches of soil in the Mojave Desert with sealed containers to measure a group of more than 25 different compounds containing oxidized nitrogen, as well as ammonia gases, that escaped from desert soils.

To rule out the role of light in this process, McCalley kept light constant but varied the temperatures in lab experiments.

“At 40 to 50 degrees Celsius (about 100 to 120 degrees Fahrenheit), we found rapid increases in gases coming out of the soil regardless of the light,” McCalley said.

Midday ground temperatures in the Mojave average about 65 C (150 F) and may exceed 90 C (close to 200 F).

“Any place that gets hot and dry, in all parts of the world, will likely exhibit this pattern,” said Sparks.

The Mojave Desert covers a large part of southeastern California and smaller parts of central California, southern Nevada, southwestern Utah and northwestern Arizona. The Mojave receives less than ten inches of rain a year, and in Death Valley, the air temperature may surpass 49 C (120 F) in late July and early August. After temperature, wind is the most significant phenomenon in the Mojave.  Both temperature and precipitation range widely, in all seasons, across the desert.

Further temperature increases and shifting precipitation patterns due to climate change may lead to more nitrogen losses in arid ecosystems, making their soils even more infertile and unable to support most plant life, according to McCalley. Although some climate models predict more summer rainfall for desert areas, the water, when combined with heat, would greatly increase nitrogen losses, she said.

“We’re on a trajectory where plant life in arid ecosystems could cease to do well,” said McCalley.

More nitrogen oxides in the lower atmosphere creates ozone near the ground, which contributes to air pollution and increases the greenhouse effect that warms the planet. With deserts accounting for 35 to 40 percent of Earth’s surface, and arid and semi-arid lands the most likely areas for new human settlements, air quality issues, loss of soil fertility, and further desertification need to be considered as the climate warms, the researchers said.

They also pointed out that most climate modelers now use algorithms that only consider biological factors to predict nitrogen gases coming from soils.

“The code in climate models would have to change to account for abiotic impacts on this part of the nitrogen budget,” McCalley said.

The research was also funded by Cornell’s Andrew Mellon Student Research Grants.

[Source: National Science Foundation news release]

Airborne Nitrogen Affects Aquatic Ecosystem in Alpine Lakes

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on November 6, 2009 at 8:18 am

nitrogen1_f

Green Lake 4 in the Front Range of the Colorado Rocky Mountains has high nitrogen levels. Credit: James Elser

Scientists compare results from more than 90 freshwater lakes

The impact of airborne nitrogen released from the burning of fossil fuels and widespread use of fertilizers in agriculture is much greater than previously recognized, according to research results published in this week’s issue of the journal Science.

It extends even to remote alpine lakes.

Examining nitrogen deposition in alpine and subalpine lakes in Colorado, Sweden and Norway, James Elser, a limnologist at Arizona State University (ASU) and colleagues found that, on average, nitrogen levels in the lakes were high, even in those lakes far from urban and agricultural centers.

The paper, “Shifts in lake N:P stoichiometry and nutrient limitation driven by atmospheric nitrogen deposition,” presents experimental data from more than 90 lakes.

The results also show that nitrogen-rich air pollution has already altered the lakes’ fundamental ecology.

“These findings reveal that nitrogen enrichment of the atmosphere, caused by humans, is altering global patterns of lake chemistry and productivity in ways likely to impact the structure and functioning of these ecosystems,” says Alan Tessier, program director in the National Science Foundation (NSF)’s division of environmental biology, which funded the research.

Plant plankton or phytoplankton, like all plants, need nitrogen and phosphorus for growth. “Inputs from pollution in the atmosphere appear to shift the supplies of nitrogen relative to other elements, like phosphorus,” says Elser.

The increase in the availability of nitrogen means that phytoplankton growing in lakes with high nitrogen deposition are now limited by how much phosphorus they can acquire.

“And phosphorus-limited phytoplankton are a poor food source,” says Elser. “They’re basically ‘junk food’ for zooplankton, which in turn are food for fish.

“Such a shift could potentially affect biodiversity. However, we don’t know the extent because, unlike in land-based ecosystems, the impacts of nitrogen deposition on aquatic systems have not been widely studied.”

Elser’s collaborators include researchers Tom Andersen and Dag Hessen from the University of Oslo; Jill Baron of the United States Geological Survey and Natural Resource Ecology Laboratory at Colorado State University; Ann-Kristin Bergström and Mats Jansson with Umeå University, Sweden; Koren Nydick of the Mountain Studies Institute in Colorado; and Marcia Kyle and Laura Steger at ASU.

By combining studies from several researchers, Elser says, “we were able to achieve a more global picture of how nitrogen is affecting a range of lakes, and come to firmer conclusions about the effects of its deposition.”

Elser and Hessen hope to expand on these findings. In addition, Elser hopes to perform similar studies in China “where atmospheric nitrogen pollution is extremely high,” he says, “but is as yet unstudied.”

[Source: National Science Foundation news release]

Microsoft Demonstrates Interactive Map of Greenhouse Gas Emission Rates at University of Illinois

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Science on November 5, 2009 at 9:13 am

…from the Daily Illini…

“Craig Mundie, chief research and strategy officer for Microsoft, visited the University on Wednesday to show the development of the company’s technology. His visit marks one of the four he will make to Universities across the nation.

“One program he demonstrated was an interactive map displaying greenhouse gas emission rates in South American rainforests and their effect on global temperatures. The map, incorporating Microsoft’s “Science Studio” program, can make climate predictions 100 years into the future, Mundie said.”

North Atlantic Fish Populations Shifting as Ocean Temperatures Warm

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography on November 4, 2009 at 6:19 am

Shiftsmapsmall

Map showing shifts in distribution of many fish stocks in the Northeast U.S. (Credit: Janet Nye, NEFSC/NOAA)

Southern Species like Atlantic Croaker May Become Common in New England Waters

About half of 36 fish stocks in the Northwest Atlantic Ocean, many of them commercially valuable species, have been shifting northward over the last four decades, with some stocks nearly disappearing from U.S. waters as they move farther offshore, according to a new study by NOAA researchers.

Their findings, published in the journal Marine Ecology Progress Series, show the impact of changing coastal and ocean temperatures on fisheries from Cape Hatteras, N.C., to the Canadian border.

Janet Nye, a postdoctoral researcher at NOAA’s Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) laboratory in Woods Hole, Mass. and the lead author of the study, looked at annual spring survey data from 1968 to 2007 for stocks ranging from Atlantic cod and haddock to yellowtail and winter flounders, spiny dogfish, Atlantic herring, and less well-known species like blackbelly rosefish. Historic ocean temperature records and long-term processes like the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation dating back to 1850 were also analyzed to put the temperature data into context.

“During the last 40 years, many familiar species have been shifting to the north where ocean waters are cooler, or staying in the same general area but moving into deeper waters than where they traditionally have been found,” Nye said. “They all seem to be adapting to changing temperatures and finding places where their chances of survival as a population are greater.”

Nye and coauthors Jason Link, Jonathan Hare and William Overholtz of NEFSC selected the 36 species to study because they were consistently caught in high numbers in the Center’s annual spring bottom trawl survey. They also represented a wide range of taxonomic groups, and were known to be commercially or ecologically important. NEFSC, headquartered in Woods Hole, conducts annual spring and fall trawl surveys and has the world’s longest time series of standardized fishery population data.

The researchers looked at where the fish were caught and their biomass, or the estimated total weight of the population, in each year of the survey.  For each stock they estimated the center of abundance, average depth, the range or area that the stock occupied, and the average temperature at which each stock was found.

They also took into account fishing pressures on the species over time, as well as natural cycles in ocean temperature. Ocean temperatures have increased since the 1960s and 1970s, and the authors found significant changes in species distribution consistent with warming in 24 of the 36 stocks studied.

Ten of the 36 stocks examined had significant range expansion, while 12 had significant range contraction. Changes in a species range can be affected by both temperature changes and fishing pressure, with heavily fished stocks appearing more sensitive to climate change and often showing a larger shift.  Seventeen of the 36 stocks occupied increasingly greater depths, and three stocks occupied increasingly shallower waters.  However, the temperature at which each stock was found did not change over time, suggesting that fish are moving to remain within their preferred temperature range.

Fish species can respond to changes in ocean temperature in a variety of ways. The stock can move poleward to avoid warmer water temperatures, or move into deeper waters than they have previously been found.  If fish cannot change their geographic or depth distribution, there may be changes in growth, reproduction and mortality rates. As a result, the size of the population may increase or decrease depending on the temperature preference of the species.  Most species in the study were found to be responding to warming ocean temperatures in one of these ways.

“The fact that we see responses in many species consistent with what you would expect with warming, but in different types of species that have experienced different historical fishing pressure, suggests that we are already witnessing the response of fish to a warming scenario,” Nye said. “The community structure is changing from cool-water to warm-water fish species. These trends will likely continue”.

While consumers will find familiar fish species at their local fish markets for the foreseeable future, fisherman may have to travel farther to catch some species until eventually it will not be economical.

“Consumers in the Northeast, for example, may eventually start seeing less familiar species like Atlantic croaker at local markets and on restaurant menus as southern and Mid-Atlantic species move northward into New England waters,” Nye said. “The fish appear to be adapting to a changing environment, and people will as well over the next few decades.”

The authors say the study has implications beyond the Northeast U.S.  “It is another example of the need for an ecosystem-based management approach to our fisheries,” said co-author Jason Link, a fisheries biologist at NEFSC’s Woods Hole laboratory. “Many factors, temperature among them, influence the status of a fish stock, and we need to be aware of all of those factors and consider them in management decisions. Looking at ‘the big picture’ helps put each piece of the puzzle in perspective.”

[Source: NOAA Northeast Fisheries Science Center (NEFSC) news release]

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, Quotes on November 4, 2009 at 6:18 am

“…the idea of trying to build machines that suck CO2 out of the air and then somehow store it is pretty clearly worth researching. That said, trees already do this quite well and our tree-planting technology is fine. Rather than wait around for the hypothetical ‘artificial trees’ of the future why not just plant more trees?”

–Matt Yglesias

Study Gives Clearer Picture of How Land-use Changes Affect U.S. Climate

In Climate Change, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Statistics on November 3, 2009 at 9:38 am

Researchers say regional surface temperatures can be affected by land use, suggesting that local and regional strategies, such as creating green spaces and buffer zones in and around urban areas, could be a tool in addressing climate change.

A study by researchers from Purdue University and the universities of Colorado and Maryland concluded that greener land cover contributes to cooler temperatures, and almost any other change leads to warmer temperatures. The study, published on line and set to appear in the Royal Meteorological Society’s International Journal of Climatology later this year, is further evidence that land use should be better incorporated into computer models projecting future climate conditions, said Purdue doctoral student Souleymane Fall, the article’s lead author.

land-use-graphic

This map shows observation minus reanalysis (OMR) trends in the continental United States from 1979-2003. The trends are associated with land use and land-use changes. Researchers from Purdue and the universities of Colorado and Maryland conducted a study that showed land use can affect surface temperatures locally and regionally. Units are in degrees Celsius per decade. (Image courtesy of Souleymane Fall)

“What we highlight here is that a significant trend, particularly the warming trend in terms of temperatures, can also be partially explained by land-use change,” said Dev Niyogi, a Purdue earth and atmospheric sciences and agronomy professor, and the Indiana state climatologist. He is the study’s corresponding author.

Niyogi and Fall say the idea that land use helps drive climate change has been poorly understood compared to factors such as greenhouse gas emissions. But that is changing.

“People realize that land use cover also is an important force and not only at the local but also at the regional scale,” said Fall, whose doctoral research focuses on the impacts of land surface properties on near-surface temperature trends.

The researchers used higher resolution temperature data than previous studies, meaning the data was more detailed, Niyogi said. They also employed dynamic data on land-use changes from 1992-2001, which was derived from satellite imagery.

Niyogi said having an understanding of land use’s affects on climate change could have climatic and other benefits. For instance, creating green spaces and buffer zones in and around urban areas also could be aesthetically attractive, he said.

Among the study’s findings:

  • In general, the greener the land cover, the cooler is surface temperature.
  • Conversion to agriculture results in cooling, while conversion from agriculture generally results in warming.
  • Deforestation generally results in warming, with the exception of a shift from forest to agriculture. No clear picture emerged from the impact of planting or seeding new forests.
  • Urbanization and conversion to bare soils have the largest warming impacts.

In general, land use conversion often results in more warming than cooling.

The study took an approach called “observation minus reanalysis,” or OMR. Through this process, the researchers used temperature data from local ground observations, observation and computer modeling, Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and statistical methods. They were able to separate the effects of land use or cover from greenhouse warming and isolate the impact from each land use or cover type. The more detailed data provided a clearer picture of the effects of land surface properties on near-surface temperature trends.

“We showed this quantitatively for the first time,” said University of Maryland atmospheric and oceanic science Professor Eugenia Kalnay, who developed the OMR method with Florida State University Professor Ming Cai. She also is a co-author of the study.

While the effects of greenhouses gases like carbon dioxide are clear, Kalnay said, the study does suggest land use needs to be considered carefully as well.

“I think that greenhouse warming is incredibly important, but land use should not be neglected,” she said. “It contributes to warming, especially in urban and desertic areas.”

Another study co-author, Roger Pielke Sr., said the results indicate that “unless these landscape effects are properly considered, the role of greenhouse warming in increasing surface temperatures will be significantly overstated.” Pielke is a senior research scientist in atmospheric and oceanic sciences at the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences and the Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences at the University of Colorado in Boulder.

Purdue’s Gilbert Rochon and Alexander Gluhovsky also participated in the study. Rochon is associate vice president for collaborative research for Information Technology at Purdue (ITaP) and director of ITaP’s Purdue Terrestrial Observatory satellite and remote sensing data program. Gluhovsky is a Purdue professor in earth and atmospheric sciences and statistics.

The work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program, NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

[Source: Purdue news release]

Writer: Greg Kline, 765-494-8167, gkline@purdue.edu

Sources: Souleymane Fall, 765-494-9138, sfall@purdue.edu

Dev Niyogi, 765-494-6574, climate@purdue.edu

Mapping the Bottom of the World

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science on November 3, 2009 at 7:22 am

ur_multimedia_143588…from University of Minnesota News…

“What’s black and white and spreads red all over?

“That would be a penguin. Thanks to pigments in the birds’ krill and fish diets, penguin poo has a reddish tint that makes their colonies and trails stand out on satellite images.

“That’s a boon to researchers who want to identify and keep track of remote, inaccessible colonies. But to do so, they need somebody to turn satellite images into maps. That’s when they call the University of Minnesota’s Paul Morin, director of the National Science Foundation-funded Antarctic Geospatial Information Center (AGIC).”

Are Scientists or Moviemakers the Bigger Dodos?

In Climate Change, Science on November 2, 2009 at 9:53 am

…an interview with Randy Olson at Smithsonian.com…

“Your second film, Sizzle, about global warming, received some mixed reviews, right?

“Well, the reviews were not mixed in the entertainment world, but the reviews were mixed in the science world. It’s important to point out the distinction. We show the movie to broad audiences. Everybody laughs and has a good time with it. But there was a significant number in the science crowd, particularly science bloggers, who were infuriated by the movie. They felt that the proper type of movie to make is an Al Gore type of movie that is packed full of information. My feeling is that that is simply reflective of scientists’ lack of understanding of the way in which to use film. Film is not a particularly effective educational medium. It is an incredibly powerful motivational medium. It’s a great way to reach inside of people’s hearts and their guts and everything else. But it’s not a good medium to pack full of information.”

RisingOceanLevels.com: An Interactive Educational Map of Potential Climate Change Impact on Our Coastlines

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography on November 2, 2009 at 7:52 am

Cartifact, Inc. and Greening Point, Inc. today announced the launch of a new public educational resource, RisingOceanLevels.com. The site provides an interactive map showing how various climate change scenarios could change our coastline through sea levels rising. The site features high quality, visually attractive interactive maps accompanied by educational information about climate change science and links to further reading. The initial release provides maps for the San Francisco Bay area and a detailed focus map of the Santa Cruz to Salinas portion of the Monterey Bay.

sonoma

Cartifact developed RisingOceanLevels.com to help the public visualize the impact of possible climate change scenarios on the location and nature of future shorelines. A scope-like lens is available to view aerial imagery of the real-world roads and buildings that, depending on local topography, could potentially be inundated by the rising global ocean levels, waves, storm surge and flooding. Greening Point collaborated in the effort, providing conceptualization, environmental information and design assistance.

Cartifact President Graham Marriott said “We strive to make visually compelling maps that help people understand complex geographic data. Sea level changes resulting from global warming are an important public issue. We’re pleased to provide a new public resource to help people understand the risks associated with various climate change scenarios.”

Both companies emphasize that they are not making a prediction that sea levels will rise to a specific level. According to Greening Point CTO Michael Tilson, “we want people to learn about possible climate change scenarios, the science behind them, and the potential outcome of each. Some scenarios are fairly likely and have significant impacts. More extreme scenarios are unlikely in the near term, and yet there is a small but worrisome risk that these could occur with severe economic, social and environmental impacts. We hope to make a positive contribution to public dialogue on these issues.”

[Source: joint Cartifact / Greening Point news release]

Interactions with Aerosols Boost Warming Potential of Some Gases

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on October 30, 2009 at 10:02 am

…from NASA…

map of the world showing methane concentrations

This map shows the distribution of methane at the surface. New research shows that methane has an elevated warming effect due to its interactions with other substances in the atmosphere. Credit: NASA/Goddard

“For decades, climate scientists have worked to identify and measure key substances — notably greenhouse gases and aerosol particles — that affect Earth’s climate. And they’ve been aided by ever more sophisticated computer models that make estimating the relative impact of each type of pollutant more reliable.

“Yet the complexity of nature — and the models used to quantify it — continues to serve up surprises. The most recent? Certain gases that cause warming are so closely linked with the production of aerosols that the emissions of one type of pollutant can indirectly affect the quantity of the other. And for two key gases that cause warming, these so-called “gas-aerosol interactions” can amplify their impact.

““We’ve known for years that methane and carbon monoxide have a warming effect,” said Drew Shindell, a climate scientist at the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) in New York and lead author of a study published this week in Science. “But our new findings suggest these gases have a significantly more powerful warming impact than previously thought.””

Climate Models Confirm More Moisture in Atmosphere Attributed to Humans

In Climate Change, Modeling, Science on October 30, 2009 at 7:28 am

When it comes to using climate models to assess the causes of the increased amount of moisture in the atmosphere, it doesn’t much matter if one model is better than the other.

They all come to the same conclusion: Humans are warming the planet, and this warming is increasing the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere.

In new research appearing in the Aug. 10 online issue of the Proceedings of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory scientists and a group of international researchers found that model quality does not affect the ability to identify human effects on atmospheric water vapor.

Oceanic water vapor map
Total amount of atmospheric water vapor over the oceans on July 4, 2009. These results are from operational weather forecasts of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF).

“Climate model quality didn’t make much of a difference,” said Benjamin Santer, lead author from LLNL’s Program for Climate Modeling and Intercomparison. “Even with the computer models that performed relatively poorly, we could still identify a human effect on climate. It was a bit surprising. The physics that drive changes in water vapor are very simple and are reasonably well portrayed in all climate models, bad or good.”

The atmosphere’s water vapor content has increased by about 0.4 kilograms per square meter per decade since 1988, and natural variability alone can’t explain this moisture change, according to Santer. “The most plausible explanation is that it’s due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases,” he said.

More water vapor – which is itself a greenhouse gas – amplifies the warming effect of increased atmospheric levels of carbon dioxide.

Previous LLNL research had shown that human-induced warming of the planet has a pronounced effect on the atmosphere’s total moisture content. In that study, the researchers had used 22 different computer models to identify a human “fingerprint” pattern in satellite measurements of water vapor changes. Each model contributed equally in the fingerprint analysis. “It was a true model democracy,” Santer said. “One model, one vote.”

But in the recent study, the scientists first took each model and tested it individually, calculating 70 different measures of model performance. These “metrics” provided insights into how well the models simulated today’s average climate and its seasonal changes, as well as on the size and geographical patterns of climate variability.

This information was used to divide the original 22 models into various sets of “top ten” and “bottom ten” models. “When we tried to come up with a David Letterman type ‘top ten’ list of models,” Santer said, “we found that it’s extremely difficult to do this in practice, because each model has its own individual strengths and weaknesses.”

Then the group repeated their fingerprint analysis, but now using only “top ten” or “bottom ten” models rather than the full 22 models. They did this more than 100 times, grading and ranking the models in many different ways. In every case, a water vapor fingerprint arising from human influences could be clearly identified in the satellite data.

“One criticism of our first study was that we were only able to find a human fingerprint because we included inferior models in our analysis,” said Karl Taylor, another LLNL co-author. “We’ve now shown that whether we use the best or the worst models, they don’t have much impact on our ability to identify a human effect on water vapor.”

This new study links LLNL’s “fingerprint” research with its long-standing work in assessing climate model quality. It tackles the general question of how to make best use of the information from a large collection of models, which often perform very differently in reproducing key aspects of present-day climate. This question is not only relevant for “fingerprint” studies of the causes of recent climate change. It is also important because different climate models show different levels of future warming. Scientists and policymakers are now asking whether we should use model quality information to weight these different model projections of future climate change.

“The issue of how we are going to deal with models of very different quality will probably become much more important in the next few years, when we look at the wide range of models that are going to be used in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change,” Santer said.

Other LLNL researchers include Karl Taylor, Peter Gleckler, Celine Bonfils, and Steve Klein. Other scientists contributing to the report include Tim Barnett and David Pierce from the Scripps Institution of Oceanography; Tom Wigley of the National Center for Atmospheric Research; Carl Mears and Frank Wentz of Remote Sensing Systems; Wolfgang Brüggemann of the Universität Hamburg; Nathan Gillett of the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis; Susan Solomon of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; Peter Stott of the Hadley Centre; and Mike Wehner of Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Founded in 1952, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is a national security laboratory, with a mission to ensure national security and apply science and technology to the important issues of our time. Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory is managed by Lawrence Livermore National Security, LLC for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration.

[Source: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory news release]

2009 New Hampshire Joint Water and Watershed Conference Features GIS Track and Hands-on Workshop

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on October 29, 2009 at 9:41 am

new_hampshire_water_conference The New Hampshire Department of Environmental Services (DES) invites interested watershed stakeholders to attend the annual 2009 New Hampshire Joint Water and Watershed Conference – Focusing on Water Resources: 2020 Vision, on Friday and Saturday, November 20th and 21st, 2009 from 8:15 a.m. – 3:30 p.m., Registration is from 8:15 a.m. – 8:45 a.m. and will be held at the Grappone Conference Center located at 70 Constitutional Avenue in Concord, NH. To find out more about the conference, read about the informative sessions and workshops, and to register for the conference, please visit www.nhrivers.org.

The organizing committees of the annual New Hampshire Watershed Conference and the New Hampshire Water Conference have joined forces to offer a single, comprehensive event for 2009. The purpose of the merger is to combine talent, resources, and audiences from both events into a unique, two-day event designed to meet the information and networking needs of lake, river, and watershed groups; environmental organizations; volunteer monitors; municipal board and staff members; elected officials; local and regional planners; policy makers; scientists; educators; consultants and students. In addition to DES, the conference sponsors include Comprehensive Environmental, Inc., Weston & Sampson, the NH Water Resources Research Center at UNH, Public Service Company of NH, and the U.S. Geological Survey.

On Friday, the conference will kick off with a presentation by Dr. Christine Feurt titled “Headwaters – Developing a Collaborative Conservation Approach to Support Land Use Decision-Making”. Dr. Feurt holds dual positions as the Coastal Training Program Coordinator at the Wells National Estuarine Research Reserve in Wells Maine and the Director of the Center for Sustainable Communities in the Department of Environmental Studies at the University of New England in Biddeford Maine. She has worked for over 40 years as an environmental scientist and educator navigating the interface between science and management. Following the plenary, the conference attendees will then have six concurrent tracks to choose from encompassing 32 sessions including “GIS”, “Stormwater”, “Climate Change”, “Water Infrastructure”, “Watershed Management” and “Land Use/Land Conservation”.

On Saturday, the conference will commence with a session titled “Treading Lightly on the Land: How Growth and Development Can Protect Water Quality” by former Maryland Governor Parris Glendening. Governor Glendening now serves as president of the Smart Growth Leadership Institute and in that capacity he works with local and state government executives to develop innovative and effective approaches to growth and development that protect the environment, ensure economic prosperity and create healthier places to live. In addition to the plenary session, the Saturday conference attendees will have six informative tracks to choose from with 20 sessions including GIS, Stormwater, Climate Change, Organizational Development, Watershed Management, Land Use/Land Conservation.

There is a different audience emphasis each day – Friday’s presentations are designed more for technical/professional audiences while Saturday’s presentations have been developed with lay/volunteer audiences in mind; local officials and state policy makers will find the sessions on both days very informative.

Throughout both days of the conference, attendees will have the opportunity to network with other professionals, policy makers, educators, consultants, local river advisory committees, lake associations, volunteer monitoring groups, watershed associations, and other organizations. In addition, posters and other exhibits from consulting firms, students, and river and lake organizations throughout the state will be on display.

The cost to attend the conference is $35/day or $50 for both days; if you register online before November 13th. There is an additional $20 fee for those who choose to attend the Geographic Information System (GIS) 2-hour hands-on workshops. The registration fee includes light breakfast, the plenary, lunch, two 60-minute sessions, a two-hour hands-on workshop, and display session. Registrants are also provided with an option to join the New Hampshire Rivers Council and the NH Lakes Association at a special rate. This conference provides a state-wide forum for learning and networking about issues related to water resources in New Hampshire. You won’t want to miss this opportunity!

If you would like more information or have any questions regarding the conference, please call Josh Cline, Executive Director of NH Rivers Council at ( 603 ) 228-6472 or email at josh@nhrivers.org, or you can call Laura Weit, Acting Rivers Coordinator at DES at ( 603 ) 271-8811 or email her at laura.weit@des.nh.gov.

THE REGISTRATION DEADLINE IS FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 13, 2009. Late registration will be accepted on the day of the conference at a cost of $45/day or $65 for both days. So, be sure to register early!

As part of this two-day conference, the NH Rivers Council is hosting the Wild and Scenic Environmental Film Festival on Friday evening which will be held at the Red River Theaters, 11 South Main Street in Concord, NH. For more information about this exciting event, please see the NH Rivers website for more details at www.nhrivers.org.

[Source: press release]

Take Part in the Population Reference Bureau’s Upcoming Discuss Online: “Does Climate Change Threaten Our Cities?”

In Climate Change on October 28, 2009 at 6:53 am

logoWhen: Thursday, Oct. 29, 2009, 1 – 2 p.m. (EDT) (GMT –4)

Who: Mark Montgomery, professor, Stony Brook University; and senior associate, Population Council’s Poverty, Gender, and Youth Program

Where: Go to http://discuss.prb.org. You may submit questions in advance and during the discussion. A full transcript of the questions and answers will be posted after the discussion.

The cities and towns of developing countries are projected to absorb at least 2.5 billion additional people by 2050. At the same time, these areas will experience global climate change likely to bring floods, droughts, food insecurity, and loss of livelihoods. These converging trends pose mounting health risks for people living in urban areas in developing countries, especially for the poorest residents. Where are the greatest health risks and what can be done to manage them?

Join Mark Montgomery as he answers your questions about urban growth, health, and climate change. He studies the implications of global climate change on urban areas of developing countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa.

Mark Montgomery is a professor of economics at Stony Brook University, New York, and a senior associate with the Population Council’s Poverty, Gender, and Youth Program. His current research interests include the links between poverty and demographic behavior in the cities of developing countries; measuring poverty and poverty dynamics; and the implications of climate change for the urban areas of developing countries. As co-chair of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences Panel on Urban Population Dynamics, he co-edited the panel’s report, Cities Transformed: Demographic Change and Its Implications in the Developing World. He is the author of the recent PRB Population Bulletin “Urban Poverty and Health in Developing Countries.”

 

Population Reference Bureau: www.prb.org

Global Tree Death Patterns Reveal Emerging Climate Change Risks for Forests

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Spatial Analysis on October 26, 2009 at 5:31 pm

Recent tree loss, largely driven by climate stress, in forests around the world could portend increased tree mortality under climate change, according to a U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) report recently released online in the journal Forest Ecology and Management.

The USGS-led review suggests that many of the world’s forests are sensitive to climate-related drought and heat stress, raising the concern that forests may become increasingly vulnerable to future mortality, even in environments that are not normally considered water-limited. The results suggest risks to ecosystem services that are valuable to forests and societies around the world.

“Trees can die much more quickly than they grow,” said Craig D. Allen, USGS scientist and lead author of the report. “The widespread examples of drought and heat-induced tree mortality that we document illustrate how climate can drive abrupt, broad-scale impacts to essential forest services ranging from timber and protection of watersheds and biodiversity to recreational, aesthetic and spiritual benefits.”

Although tree mortality episodes occur in the absence of climate change, the report’s results are consistent with projections of future increases in tree mortality due to climate-related stresses. These heat and drought stresses could fundamentally alter the composition, structure and biogeography of forests in many regions, as well as affect how forests sequester carbon.

“This work by USGS underscores multiple risks that climate change poses to our forests and our world,” said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar.  “It also illuminates the importance of our efforts to develop practical, on-the-ground land management strategies that will help us adjust to the stresses that climate change is placing on our forests.”

The report details 88 cases of significant tree mortality around the world associated with heat and drought since 1970, documenting climate-induced tree losses from Africa, Asia, Australia, Europe, North America and South America.

“From northern forests of spruce, pine or oak to tropical savannas and rainforests, many forest types appear vulnerable to such climate-driven mortality and to forest pests that are also highly sensitive to temperature,” Allen said.

The report also identifies key information gaps and scientific uncertainties that currently hinder our ability to identify climate-related trends in tree mortality and to predict future losses in response to climate change, including lack of species-specific knowledge about tree water and temperature stress limits and the absence of a globally coordinated observation system.

However, in conjunction with other recent observational and experimental studies indicating that higher temperatures can drive increases in tree mortality, this article highlights risks that tree mortality could become more frequent and extensive as global climate change progresses.

[Source: USGS news release]

GIS for Climate Change Bibliography, Part 4: Sustainability

In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Green Technologies on October 26, 2009 at 8:40 am

Building an Oasis in the Desert: GIS Helps Ensure that Masdar City Meets Its Carbon-Neutral, Zero-Waste Goals
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/building-an-oasis.html

Sumatra—Forest Cover and Change 1990–2000
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/conservation1.html

Mapping Ecosystem Services in the Sierra Nevada, California
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/conservation5.html

Global Gap Analysis—August 2003, First Iteration
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume20/conservation10.html

Global Population Density Estimates for 2015
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume21/sustainable_dev1.html

Combined Suitability of Land for Rainfed Crops and Pastures
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume21/sustainable_dev2.html

3D Population Distribution in the Bay Area in 2000
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/sustain_dev1.html

Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in Sekhukhune, Republic of South Africa
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/sustain_dev2.html

Key Drivers of Food Insecurity and Vulnerability in the Greater Sekhukhune Municipality, Republic of South Africa
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/sustain_dev3.html

Back to the Future
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/sustainabledev3.html

Reducing the Impact of Transportation on the Human Footprint
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/sustainable5.html

Regional Conservation Priorities for Upper Guinean and Congo Basin Forests
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume19/conservation1.html

Philippine Biodiversity Conservation Priorities
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume19/conservation2.html

The Nature Audit—Cumulative Human Footprint
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume19/conservation6.html

Atlas of the Biodiversity of California
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/state1/ca3.html

Coastal Wetlands Planning, Protection, and Restoration Act Priority Project Lists I–XIII
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/state1/la7.html

Wetland Mitigation: Restoring Montana’s Wetlands
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/state1/mt1.html

GIS Mapping of the Yields of Ohio’s Aquifers
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/state1/oh1.html

Rhode Island Land Suitability Analysis for Development Intensity and Conservation
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/state1/ri1.html

Narragansett Bay Coastal Wetland Trends Analysis 1950s–1990s
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/state1/ri3.html

Adapting to Climate Change: The Global Adaptation Atlas
http://www.rff.org/News/ClimateAdaptation/Documents/Adaptation%20Atlas%20-%20Project%20Overview.pdf

FORMA = Forest Monitoring for Action: Tracking Deforestation, One Regression at a Time
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2XVCS9OleQ&feature=player_embedded

CITYgreen Calculates Environmental Benefits of Trees and Green Space
http://www.americanforests.org/productsandpubs/citygreen/

Visualizing Priority Conservation Areas in Western North America
http://tncclimate.esri.com/TNC/ClimateChange.html

Changing Vegetation and Challenges to Borders of Tanjung Puting National Park in Borneo
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1709.html

Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1763.html

Climate Change Impacts on Watersheds in Mesoamerica and the Caribbean
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1143.html

Westchester County’s Green Map Aids County Global Warming Task Force Plans
http://www.esri.com/news/arcwatch/0808/green-map.html

Delta Habitat Opportunities – Assessing Risks with Climate Change
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1088.html

Developing the Next Generation of Climate Action Plans
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1825.html

Influence of Climate Change on Outbreak of Leaf Spot Disease
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1034.html

Local Climate Change GIS—Data-Based Visioning Tools for Community Decision-Making
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1603.html

Transportation Modeling and Climate Change Analysis
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1824.html

Conserving Bolivia’s Critical Resources
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/spring08articles/conserving-bolivias.html

Ecosystem Vulnerability to Climate Change in Panama
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1800.html

Modeling Landscape Connectivity in the Southern Appalachians under Climate Change
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1970.html

Philippine Tarsiers Conservation Program Streamlined with GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0304articles/philippine-tarsiers.html

For Puget Sound, Washington, GIS and Modeling Are Protecting and Restoring Shorelines and Open Spaces
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0506articles/for-puget-sound.html

Kenya’s Kiunga Marine National Reserve Studies Sustainable Fisheries and Marine Conservation with GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0203articles/kenyas-kiunga-marine.html

Mapping Benthic Habitats: The Marine GIS Challenge
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/spring05articles/mapping-benthic.html

The Charlotte, North Carolina, Urban Area Now Has a “Green Theme”
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/summer04articles/charlotte-northcarolina.html

Rangeland Health Data Collection and Analysis Improved with Mobile GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/spring08articles/rangeland-health.html

U.S. Department of Agriculture Produces Objective and Accurate Global Assessments with GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0304articles/usda-produces.html

Spreading Data Improves Crop Yield
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0607articles/spreading-data.html

International Coffee Marketing and Certification Aided With GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0304articles/international-coffee.html

Sri Lanka Uses GIS for Planning and Management of Irrigation Systems
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0304articles/sri-lanka.html

Formulating a Sustainable Development Land Use Scenario Using GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall02articles/formulating-sustainable.html

Colorado’s North Front Range Metropolitan Planning Organization Makes Ride Sharing Easier with GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0506articles/colorados-north-front.html

Supporting Island Land Conservation
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0607articles/supporting-island.html

Traditional Knowledge Meets New Tools
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/summer06articles/traditional-knowledge.html

Bibliographies in this series:

Nobel Prize Winner Dr. Ninh Discusses Climate Change at ESRI

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science on October 23, 2009 at 7:56 pm

Dsc_8202_w

IPCC member and Nobel Prize winner Dr. Ninh discussed climate change at the ESRI auditorium, Redlands CA, 23 October 2009.

GIS for Climate Change Bibliography, Part 3: Renewable Energy

In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Green Technologies on October 23, 2009 at 6:22 am

Assessing Economic Biomass Resource Potential for Bioenergy and Biobased Products

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental7.html

Wind Resources of the Western United States, 2007–2008 Edition
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/electric2.html

New Mexico Renewable Energy Resource Potential with Existing Energy Transmission Lines
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/electric4.html

Developing Wind Farms: Screening for Potential Sites
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/electric6.html

Atlas of UK Marine Renewable Energy Resources

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/mining1.html

Renewable Energy Siting: Collocating Wind Energy and Ethanol Production in Kansas
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/electric2.html

Renewable Energy: GIS and the Science Behind Tapping Wind Power Offer Insight on the Resource’s Feasibility
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/renewable-energy.html

Mapping the Solar Potential of Rooftops: Germany’s SUN-AREA Research Project Uses GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/mapping-the-solar.html

Assessing Economic Biomass Resources in California with GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/assessing-economic.html

GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals: Searching for Suitable Sites
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html

GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals: Determining Resource Potential
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html

GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals: Airflow Analysis for Wind Power
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html

GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals: Attracting Renewable Investors
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html

GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals: Environmental Impact Assessment of Proposed Wind Turbines
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html

GIS to Meet Renewable Energy Goals: Economic and Government Considerations of Wind Resources
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall09articles/gis-to-meet.html

GIS—A Common Tool for Sustainable Wind Development
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1894.html

Impact of Future Wind Farm Development on the Avesnois Park Landscape
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/environment5.html

The Los Angeles County Solar Mapping Portal
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1805.html

Geothermal Map of North America, 2004
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume20/mining2.html

Development of the Biomass Energy Use Business Evaluation GIS Software
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1159.html

Siting a Solar Power Project
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/sustainabledev7.html

GIS-Based Renewable Resource Supply Curves for the ReEDS Model
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1893.html

GIS in Support of the Concentrating Solar Power Program
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/sustainabledev1.html

Micro-climate Solar Modeling over Complex Terrain
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc07/papers/abstracts/a1904.html

The Big Sky State Taps Wind Resources
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/summer08articles/the-big-sky-state.html

Ethanol Buzz Fuels GIS Planning by Colonial Pipeline Company
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall08articles/ethanol-buzz.html

Boston Showcases Solar Power Potential with Web GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall08articles/boston-showcases.html

Measuring the Economics of Biofuel Availability
http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/1006/biomass1of2.html

Bibliographies in this series:

British Scientists Unveil New Climate Change Map Showing Likely Effects of Continued Carbons Emissions

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on October 22, 2009 at 9:08 am

…from The Guardian…

A-map-showing-the-impact--003

“The British government today raised the political stakes on climate change when it published a new map of the world that details the likely effects of a failure to cut greenhouse gas emissions.

“The map shows the impact of an average 4C rise in global temperature, which John Beddington, the government’s chief scientist, said would be “disastrous”. A study by the Met Office last month said that such a 4C rise could come as soon as 2060 without urgent and serious action to reduce emissions.

“The map was launched to coincide with the London Science Museum’s new Prove it climate change exhibition by David Miliband, foreign secretary and his brother Ed Miliband, energy and climate change secretary. It comes in advance of key political talks on climate change in December in Copenhagen, where British officials will push for a new global deal to curb emissions.”

GIS for Climate Change Bibliography, Part 2: Carbon Management

In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Green Technologies, Science on October 22, 2009 at 8:54 am

National Carbon Sequestration (NatCarb)
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental10.html

City of Irvine’s GHG GIS Protocol
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1826.html

The Plains CO2 Reduction Partnership Region
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental6.html

GIS Contributes to Groundbreaking Carbon Emissions Inventory
http://www.esri.com/library/newsletters/giseducator/gised-winter08.pdf

Predicting the Vegetation Distribution and Terrestrial Carbon-Fluxes Using MC1 Model
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1479.html

Generalized Contours of the Sauk Sequence for Characterization of Saline Aquifers for CO2 Sequestration
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume19/environment3.html

ESRI Commits to Clinton Global Initiative with Carbon Reduction Solution
http://www.esri.com/news/releases/09_4qtr/global_initiative.html
http://www.ens-newswire.com/ens/sep2009/2009-09-28-03.asp

New Zealand Enlists GIS to Monitor Greenhouse Gas
http://www.esri.com/news/releases/09_3qtr/new_zealand_greenhouse.html

Enhanced Oil Recovery Revives Petroleum Fields and Reduces Greenhouse Gas Emissions

http://www.esri.com/news/arcwatch/0209/salt-creek.html

ESRI Commits to Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy
http://www.kaieteurnewsonline.com/2009/09/17/norway-lauds-guyana%E2%80%99s-forestry-initiative/
http://opnew.op.gov.gy/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=722:esri-commits-to-guyana-&catid=34:bulletins&Itemid=70

Illinois Basin Coal GIS Datasets for Coal Bed Methane, Carbon Sequestration, and Coal Resource Studies
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume21/mining4.html

Measuring the Carbon Content of Forests: The Carbon Measurement Collaborative
http://www.clintonfoundation.org/what-we-do/clinton-climate-initiative/our-approach/forests/measuring-carbon

Forestry Carbon Trading Opportunities Explored with GIS
http://www.esri.com/library/newsletters/environment/envobs-winter2009.pdf#page=8

Baselining CO2 Emissions of Las Vegas Residential Streets
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1013.html

Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Communications Supported by GIS
http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0607articles/carbon-dioxide.html

Carbonfootprinting on the CSUN Campus Using ArcGIS
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1462.html

Carbon Nation: Automated GIS Process is Creating a Snapshot of Biomass and Carbon in U.S. Forests
http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/1008/carbon.html

Web-GIS for Managing Agroforestry for Carbon Sequestration in East-Africa
http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1485.html

Bibliographies in this series:

GIS for Climate Change Bibliography, Part 1: Climate Science

In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science on October 22, 2009 at 8:42 am

Analyzing Sea Level Potential and Temperature Extremes within a GIS Environment

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E4GfnC6lK1Y

Shoreline Change History of Louisiana’s Gulf Shoreline: 1800s to 2005

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental1.html

Impacts of Sea Level Rise on Southern Florida

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental3.html

Coastal Change and Glaciological Map of the Larsen Ice Shelf Area, Antarctica: 1940–2005

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental4.html

The Cryosphere World Map

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume23/environmental9.html

DOI Demonstrates Climate Change with ArcGIS Explorer: Visualizing Environmental Impacts Shows Need for New Strategy

http://www.esri.com/news/releases/09_4qtr/climate-hail.html

Houston Ozone and Ozone Precursor Monitoring Network
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/environment8.html

Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation Map, Including Arctic Research Stations
http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume24/environment11.html

Arctic Conservation Area Topographic Map

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/conservation6.html

A Long-Term Seamless Daily Precipitation-Temperature Geodatabase for the Continental US (CONUS)

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1938.html

Global Soil Regions

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume22/sustain_dev4.html

Forest Dynamics in the Southern Lake Tahoe Basin, 1940–2002

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume21/forestry3.html

Shrinking Forests of Kilimanjaro—The Impact of Fire and Climate Change

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume20/conservation2.html

Circumpolar Arctic Vegetation

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume20/conservation3.html

Global Warming: The Bering Glacier Retreat and Sea Level Rise

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1172.html

Air Pollution Sources in South Coast Air Basin—Impacts of Meteorology, Terrain, and Other Sources

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume20/environment4.html

Predicted Potential Natural Vegetation of New Zealand

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume20/forestry4.html

Spatial Patterns of Climatic Factors Using GIS and PRISM, Korea

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1482.html

Land Cover of North America

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume19/forestry2.html

Using ArcGIS to Evaluate Weather Warnings

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1961.html

100+ Years of Land Change for Coastal Louisiana

http://www.esri.com/mapmuseum/mapbook_gallery/volume19/mining3.html

Using ArcGIS to Analyze Climate Patterns and Climate Change

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1168.html

Investigating Temperature Extremes in the United States

http://edcommunity.esri.com/arclessons/lesson.cfm?id=409

The Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) GEOportal

http://www.geoportal.org/web/guest/geo_home

NOAA Climate Services Portal: Climate Data and Statistics

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc09/uc/abstracts/a1882.html

NCAR Publishes Climate Change Models in ESRI GIS Format

http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/winter0405articles/ncar.html

Characteristics of Atlantic Tropical Storms from Long-Term Observations

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a1254.html

Amongst the Icebergs, GIS Innovation Aids Antarctic Research

http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall04articles/amongst-the-icebergs.html

ClimateWizard: A Web-based GIS Tool for Practical Climate Change Analysis

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a2230.html

Long-Term Environmental Monitoring at McMurdo Station, Antarctica, Supported With GIS

http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/fall04articles/long-term-environmental.html

Polar Climate Change: Shrinking Arctic Ice in a Temporal Context

http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc08/papers/abstracts/a2124.html

Mapping the Ayles Ice Shelf Break

http://www.esri.com/news/arcnews/spring07articles/mapping-ayles.html

CASI Data Provides Better Picture of Coral Reef Threats

http://www.esri.com/news/arcuser/0506/casi1of2.html

Bibliographies in this series:

NOAA Awards $243,000 to Prepare New Hampshire Watershed for Climate Change and Population Growth

In Climate Change, Geography on October 21, 2009 at 7:06 am

Syntectic International LLC and Antioch University New England to partner with stakeholders

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has awarded Syntectic International, LLC of Portland, Oregon; Antioch University New England of Keene, New Hampshire; the Lake Sunapee Protective Association of Sunapee, New Hampshire; and partners, $243,000 to prepare the Lake Sunapee watershed for climate change and population growth.

The partners’ objectives are to protect a community comprised of vulnerable stormwater and drinking-water systems, and disseminate results to promote safe communities nationwide. The study accomplishes a key recommendation of the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report: providing decision-support for implementation of stakeholder-driven adaptation. By developing a reliable, local-scale adaptation protocol, the project seeks to maintain historical flood protection levels for the study site and other communities facing significant impacts from climate change and population growth.

Funded by NOAA’s Climate Program Office, the interdisciplinary team includes Latham Stack of Syntectic International; Michael Simpson, Jim Gruber, and Colin Lawson of Antioch University New England (AUNE); Dr. Robert Roseen of the University of New Hampshire Storm Water Center; Thomas Crosslin of Climate Techniques in Portland, Oregon; Robert Wood of the Lake Sunapee Protective Association; and internationally recognized adaptation expert Joel Smith of Stratus Consulting in Boulder, Colorado. Five of the eight researchers are either AUNE faculty members or alumni.

The project will study a region that, like many others, is experiencing an unusual and ongoing period of extreme or record rainfalls. These significantly diverge from the historical climate pattern. Previous studies by the team at other sites found that portions of existing stormwater drainage systems are currently undersized as a result of already-changed rainfall patterns.

“Recent experience and scientific studies are clear,” said Latham Stack, CEO of Syntectic. “Storm patterns are worsening and it is no longer prudent to delay action. We will never have perfect science, however sufficient science is available now. This project will protect the community with adequately reliable, local-scale information to support informed decisions.” By encouraging the participation of local stakeholders, the project will empower citizens to choose adaptation plans that are best for their towns. For example, Low Impact Development methods can minimize runoff and significantly reduce the need for more expensive drainage system upgrades.

According to Michael Simpson, director of AUNE’s Resource Management and Conservation program, “The availability of reliable and economical solutions can make the difference between returning to historical protection levels, or continuing to expose people and assets to worsening hazards.” Simpson explained that stormwater engineers and planners have always needed to cope with uncertainty and change, and the construction of water systems designed using best-available knowledge has always proceeded in parallel with the development of theory. “The past was not as certain as we like to think, and problems posed by population growth and climate change are actually not that different from previous challenges,” said Simpson.

The project will be broadly transferable, according to Stack. The team hopes to catalyze similar work nationwide, reducing further loss of life and damage from worsening storms. By demonstrating a practical protocol for action, this study will provide urgently needed decision-support to leaders seeking to maintain historical protection levels in their communities.

[Source: Syntectic news release]

Diverting Sediment-rich Water Below New Orleans Could Lead to Extensive New Land

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling, Science on October 21, 2009 at 6:59 am

nsflogoOpenings in Mississippi levees could build new land in sinking delta

Diverting sediment-rich water from the Mississippi River below New Orleans could generate new land in the river’s delta in the next century.

The land would equal almost half the acreage otherwise expected to disappear during that period, a new study shows.

For decades, sea-level rise, land subsidence, and a decrease in river sediment have caused vast swaths of the Mississippi Delta to vanish into the sea.

The anticipated build-up of new land in a portion of the delta, as simulated by a computer model, could compensate for a large fraction of the expected future loss, protect upriver areas from storm surges, and create fresh-water habitat, the researchers say.

“What this model shows is that we can, to a large degree, match future land loss by making these diversions,” says David Mohrig, a geologist at the University of Texas (UT)-Austin who is also affiliated with the National Science Foundation (NSF)’s National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics at the University of Minnesota.

He and Wonsuck Kim, also a geologist at UT-Austin, led the study. Its results are reported in today’s issue of Eos, the weekly newspaper of the American Geophysical Union (AGU).

“These authors present the possibility that through numerical modeling, coordinated with river channel diversions on the Mississippi Delta, we can begin to restore wetlands and build new land,” says H. Richard Lane, program director in NSF’s division of earth sciences, which funded the research.

The delta of the Mississippi River has been losing land to the sea at an average rate of about 44 square kilometers (17 square miles) per year since around 1940.

The natural equilibrium between soil loss and sediment deposition has been altered by the levees the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built below New Orleans to prevent the Mississippi from flooding.

The confined waters at the end of the river’s course flow faster and drop their sediments over the continental platform, draining into the Gulf of Mexico.

History recorded in the river deposits shows that the main channel of the Mississippi moved roughly every 1,000 years to a new lowland area, Kim and Mohrig say. The engineering of the levees, they believe, has kept the river from entering lowland areas and depositing sedimentation.

The model looks at potential effects of an existing proposal to divert Mississippi River water through a pair of cuts made opposite each other in the levees 150 kilometers (93 miles) downstream from New Orleans.

Nearly half of the river’s flow would spill out through the cuts, taking sediment with it and depositing it to each side of the river channel.

Despite sea level rise, increased land sinking rates, and a drop in the river’s sediment supply, the diversions would create an amount of new land equal to up to 45 percent of the area that would otherwise be lost to the sea in the coming century, the model predicts.

Enough flow would remain in the main channel of the river to allow navigation there, the researchers report.

Other scientists studying coastal restoration had previously proposed creating these two diversions to allow water and sediment to exit the enclosed river, and build two lobes of new land in adjacent shallow-water sections of Breton Sound and Barataria Bay.

But critics say that dams in the upper sections of the Mississippi River have reduced the water’s sediment content so much that there isn’t enough raw material left to rebuild the delta. Also, detractors argue that future sea level rise and the current high sinking rate of the delta would make restoration impossible.

“Until we put together this model, there was a lot of debate that wasn’t substantiated by anything but by intuition,” says Mohrig. “We needed to move from having very soft impressions of what could be done to making predictions that can actually be tested.”

The modelers used a conservative sediment supply rate, subsidence (sinking) rates from one to 10 millimeters per year, and rates of sea level rise that went from zero to four millimeters per year.

In their calculations, the authors considered diverting only 45 percent of the water to ensure that the section of the river below the diversions remained open to navigation.

The model predicts that the two diversions would create between 701 square kilometers (about 271 square miles) and 1,217 square kilometers (470 square miles) of new land over a century, partially offsetting land loss.

Kim and Mohrig calculate the engineered new delta lobes would make up for 25 to 45 percent of the area expected to vanish throughout the delta between now and 2110.

“Diversions are really the only cost-effective way of building land,” Mohrig says.

The researchers verified their model by running a simulation of the evolution of another delta influenced by an existing diversion of the Mississippi River: the Old River Control Structures.

These structures divert water from the Mississippi to the Atchafalaya River, which also empties into the Gulf of Mexico.

The Atchafalaya River is currently building new land both in the Atchafalaya Delta and its subsidiary, the Wax Lake Delta.  The model was able to accurately predict the amount of land that has been built since 1980.

Mohrig and Kim collaborated on the model with scientists from Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge; the University of Minnesota, Minneapolis; and the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign.

[Source: National Science Foundation press release]

“Earth Science, Web 2.0+, and Geospatial Applications” to be Presented at ScienceOnline2010

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science, Visualization on October 20, 2009 at 1:07 pm

sol_logoJacqueline Floyd and Chris Rowan will co-chair a session titled “Earth Science, Web 2.0+, and Geospatial Applications” at the ScienceOnline2010 conference at Research Triangle Park, NC, which will be held 14 to 17 January 2010.  “We will discuss online and mobile applications for earth science research, including solid earth, ocean, and atmosphere subtopics. Current topics planned for discussion are Google Earth for geospatial applications, iPhone and other mobile applications, collaboration tools such as Google Wave, and cloud computing platforms such as Amazon’s EC2 for computationally intensive applications such as seismic tomography or climate modeling. Also, we’ll discuss web analytics: defining and measuring what makes a science website or online application successful.”

Cartogram of Global CO2 Emissions in ArcGIS

In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS on October 20, 2009 at 12:29 pm

…reposted from the ESRI GIS Education Community blog…

Cartograms, because they distort our normal view of things, are wonderfully rich research and teaching tools. A distance cartogram shows relative travel times and directions within a network. An area cartogram is a map in which some variable is used instead of the land area in each polygon to compute the size of that polygon. Many of us remember using graph paper to make rectangular area cartograms as undergraduates (but perhaps I am dating myself). Today, one can use Web GIS and desktop GIS to create cartograms. For example, nearly 700 variables can be mapped on www.worldmapper.org, and the data can be downloaded as Excel spreadsheets and analyzed within ArcGIS.

To dig deeper and make your own cartograms, with the ability to do bivariate analysis within a GIS environment, use the ArcScript cartogram tool that Tom Gross in the ESRI Applications Prototype Lab created, on: http://arcscripts.esri.com/details.asp?dbid=15638. How can a GIS, which focuses on the accurate spatial representations of features, be used to create cartograms? Try this script and find out!

Once you install the cartogram tool, inside ArcMap, access ArcToolbox. Create a toolset, add the cartogram tool, and run it. The intuitive interface allows specifying input and output, and even comes with a nice assortment of international population and other variables to practice on. You can distort the base layers so that your cartogram can include the distorted layers for reference. I did this for cities, a 30-degree world grid, and a satellite image of the Earth to see these reference layers overlaid on my cartogram.

481x375.aspx

In this example, I chose to map the total CO2 emissions by country in 2004, in millions of metric tons, from the US Energy Information Agency. What patterns do you notice?

The cartogram map layer has to be written into a geodatabase, but otherwise, the tool has few restrictions. I am very pleased cartographically with the results, and the methodology of how the cartograms are generated is well documented.

What other variables and scales could you map and analyze as cartograms?

-Joseph Kerski, ESRI Education Manager

University of Texas at Austin will Use GIS to Study Climate Change and Political Stability in Africa

In Climate Change, Education, GIS, Social Science on October 20, 2009 at 11:03 am

“The Robert S. Strauss Center for International Security and Law has been awarded a $7.6 million grant by the U. S. Department of Defense, the largest single award dedicated to social science research The University of Texas at Austin has received.

“The five-year grant will fund the Strauss Center’s Program on Climate Change and African Political Stability (CCAPS), which will identify how climate change could trigger disasters in Africa that undermine political stability. The program will explore strategies for building African state capacity and assess global aid efforts while developing partnerships with the Africa policy community in the United States, Africa and elsewhere.

“”CCAPS utilizes the most rigorous methods available to social scientists,” said Catherine E. Weaver, Strauss Center distinguished scholar. “It combines extensive qualitative fieldwork in Africa with the sophisticated use of quantitative analysis and Geographic Information System (GIS) software to better understand the complex relationship between climate change risks, political vulnerability and international aid activity.”"

Building an Oasis in the Desert: GIS Helps Ensure that Masdar City Meets Its Carbon-Neutral, Zero-Waste Goals

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies on October 20, 2009 at 6:07 am

p26p2…from the Fall 2009 issue of ArcNews…

Highlights:

  • Every facet of designing and building the city will be analyzed with ArcGIS.
  • Asset management using ArcGIS means all systems can be visualized, maintained, and tracked efficiently.
  • An enterprise geodatabase will be used throughout the city’s life cycle.

“Many of us are interested in decreasing our carbon footprint, whether one individual, one family, or one organization at a time. Imagine living in an entire city specifically designed to meet the ambitious goals of zero waste; sustainable living; and, ultimately, carbon neutrality. This is the vision of Masdar City, which is being designed and constructed in Abu Dhabi, the capital of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), by Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s multifaceted initiative advancing the development, commercialization, and deployment of renewable and alternative energy technologies and solutions. Masdar, which means “the source” in Arabic, integrates the full technology life cycle—from research to commercial deployment. The Masdar company aims to create renewable energy solutions.”

Visualizing Climate Change with ArcGIS Explorer

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Visualization on October 16, 2009 at 7:20 am

ArGIS Explorer shows extreme hail (yellow), tornados (red), winds storms (green), and hurricanes (blue).

climate-hail-lg

Map of the Day: The Plains CO2 Reduction Partnership Region

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Map of the Day on October 16, 2009 at 4:53 am

…from the Map Book, Volume 23…

environmental_6a

“Although uncertainty still clouds the science of climate change, there is a strong indication that the signficant reduction of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is needed. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) offers a promising set of technologies through which carbon dioxide (CO2) and potentially other GHGs can be stored in sinks represented by biologic materials and geologic formations. Within central North America, the Plains CO2 Reduction (PCOR) Partnership is investigating CCS technologies in order to provide a safe, effective, and efficient means of managing carbon dioxide emissions across the center of the continent.

“The PCOR Partnership confirmed that while there are numerous large stationary CO2 sources, the region also has a variety of sinks that represent a tremendous capacity for CO2 sequestration.

“The map was created to provide an understanding of the number and extent of large stationary CO2 sources in central North America. The map also depicts the distribution and extent of oil fields and major sedimentary basins in this region. Many oil fields and deep strata in the basins are suitable targets for the safe, long-term sequestration of CO2.

“Courtesy of University of North Dakota, Energy & Environmental Research Center, 2008.”

DOI Demonstrates Climate Change with ArcGIS Explorer: Visualizing Environmental Impacts Shows Need for New Strategy

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on October 15, 2009 at 10:49 am

esriSecretary of the Interior Ken Salazar recently signed an order to establish a coordinated strategy within the United States Department of the Interior (DOI) to improve response to climate change. During the press conference announcing the order, DOI staff used ESRI geographic information system (GIS) technology to demonstrate the current and future impacts of global climate change.

“I’m issuing the order because the Department of Interior must continue to change how it does business and to respond to the energy and climate change challenges which I consider to be the signature issues of the twenty-first century,” said Salazar.

Science adviser Kit Batten and enterprise geographic information management lead Robert R. Pierce, Ph.D., used ArcGIS Explorer to show where on the globe climate change is taking place and what that change looks like. “This is a live demonstration,” said Batten. “It demonstrates how Interior’s scientific expertise, data resources, and geospatial analysis and visualization capabilities help us understand, anticipate, and deal with the impacts of climate change.”

Batten used ArcGIS Explorer to show a 3D globe indicating increases in surface temperatures around the world and where warming negatively impacts the United States. Map points indicated incidents of extreme weather, such as large hail and strong tornados, and lines showed the paths of intense hurricanes.

Batten also explained that as greenhouse gases continue to warm the environment and cause glaciers and permafrost to melt, scientists anticipate sea-level rises of up to one meter by the end of the century. The ArcGIS Explorer globe showed potential impacts to coastal communities. “This information is imperative for designing strategies to protect our low-lying coastal communities,” she said.

To better manage these and many other environmental impacts, Secretary Salazar’s order includes establishing a Climate Change Response Council and Regional Climate Change Response Centers, creating a network of Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, overseeing the DOI Carbon Storage Project, and lowering the department’s carbon footprint.

DOI will continue to leverage its investment in GIS technology for complex data analysis, data sharing, and collaboration with government agencies to address the vast nature of climate change challenges.

To see the demonstration, visit www.doi.gov/climatechange. To learn more about ArcGIS Explorer, visit www.esri.com/arcgisexplorer.

[Source: ESRI news release]

Free Data Set: Greenhouse Gas Flux Between the Land and Atmosphere for Major Regions of the World

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on October 15, 2009 at 7:13 am

“The atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) are increasing substantially.  These increases are expected to result in global warming and changes in precipitation patterns, and may directly affect terrestrial ecosystems.  Our understanding of the contemporary fluxes of these gases between the land and atmosphere is incomplete.  There are large regions of the earth for which we have very little information on trace gas fluxes.   Furthermore, for no region do we fully understand how global change, including land-use change, will affect gas fluxes.  The United States Trace Gas Network (TRAGNET) is meant to accomplish the following two goals: document contemporary fluxes of CO2, CH4 and N2O between regionally important ecosystems and the atmosphere, and  determine the factors controlling these fluxes and improve our ability to predict future fluxes in response to ecosystem and climate change.  Part of this research is supported by the National Science Foundation. Abstract from website http://www.nrel.colostate.edu/projects/tragnet/.”

Quote of the Day

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, Quotes on October 15, 2009 at 7:12 am

JackDangermondESRI160“People today are very nervous about what is happening on Wall Street and what I am more concerned about is ecological sustainability and global warming issues on the planet, because they are not something that you can go to the bank and borrow more money from. The real sustainability issue and the real economic foundation is nature’s capital, it is not artificial money capital.”

–Jack Dangermond, 2008

Arctic Now Traps 25 Percent of World’s Carbon, But That Could Change

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science on October 14, 2009 at 2:41 pm

The arctic could potentially alter the Earth’s climate by becoming a possible source of global atmospheric carbon dioxide.  The arctic now traps or absorbs up to 25 percent of this gas but climate change could alter that amount, according to a study published in the November issue of Ecological Monographs.

In their review paper, David McGuire of the U.S. Geological Survey and the University of Alaska at Fairbanks and his colleagues show that the Arctic has been a carbon sink since the end of the last Ice Age, which has recently accounted for between zero and 25 percent, or up to about 800 million metric tons, of the global carbon sink. On average, says McGuire, the Arctic accounts for 10-15 percent of the Earth’s carbon sink. But the rapid rate of climate change in the Arctic – about twice that of lower latitudes – could eliminate the sink and instead, possibly make the Arctic a source of carbon dioxide.

“This study is another example of the important role played by USGS and its partners in providing the scientific research that must be the backbone of any actions related to climate change,” said Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar.

caption below
This figure shows the mean extent of permafrost in the Arctic, estimated for (a) the years 1990-2000 and (b) the years 2090-2100. In (c), the estimation of loss of permafrost by 2100 is overlaid on estimates for the year 2000. Credit: A. David McGuire, USGS (click on the image to see the full size version)

Carbon generally enters the oceans and land masses of the Arctic from the atmosphere and largely accumulates in permafrost, the frozen layer of soil underneath the land’s surface. Unlike active soils, permafrost does not decompose its carbon; thus, the carbon becomes trapped in the frozen soil. Cold conditions at the surface have also slowed the rate of organic matter decomposition, McGuire says, allowing Arctic carbon accumulation to exceed its release.

But recent warming trends could change this balance. Warmer temperatures can accelerate the rate of surface organic matter decomposition, releasing more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. Of greater concern, says McGuire, is that the permafrost has begun to thaw, exposing previously frozen soil to decomposition and erosion. These changes could reverse the historical role of the Arctic as a sink for carbon dioxide.

“In the short term, warming temperatures could release more Arctic carbon to the atmosphere,” says McGuire. “And with permafrost thawing, there will be more available carbon to release.”

On the scale of a few decades, the thawing permafrost could also result in a more waterlogged Arctic, says McGuire, a situation that could encourage the activity of methane-producing organisms. Currently, the Arctic is a substantial source of methane to the atmosphere: as much as 50 million metric tons of methane are released per year, in comparison to the 400 million metric tons of carbon dioxide the Arctic stores yearly. But methane is a very potent greenhouse gas – about 23 times more effective at trapping heat than carbon dioxide on a 100-year time scale. If the release of Arctic methane accelerates, global warming could increase at much faster rates.

“We don’t understand methane very well, and its releases to the atmosphere are more episodic than the exchanges of carbon dioxide with the atmosphere,” says McGuire. “It’s important to pay attention to methane dynamics because of methane’s substantial potential to accelerate global warming.”

But uncertainties still abound about the response of the Arctic system to climate change. For example, the authors write, global warming may produce longer growing seasons that promote plant photosynthesis, which removes carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Also, the expansion of shrubs in tundra and the movement of treeline northward could sequester more carbon in vegetation. However, increasingly dry conditions may counteract and overcome these effects. Similarly, dry conditions can lead to increased fire prevalence, releasing even more carbon.

McGuire contends that only specific regional studies can determine which areas are likely to experience changes in response to climate change.

“If the response of the arctic carbon cycle to climate change results in substantial net releases of greenhouse gases, this could compromise proposed mitigation efforts for controlling the carbon cycle,” he says.

The article, Sensitivity of the Carbon Cycle in the Arctic to Climate Change, was published online today in Ecological Monographs. The coordinating lead author is David McGuire, USGS, and the co-authors include internationally renowned scientists from Canada, Germany, Sweden, and the United States. This study was sponsored by the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Program, the Climate in the Cryosphere Program, and the International Arctic Science Committee.

[Source: USGS news release]

Uganda to Host Conference On Geoinformation Science

In Climate Change, Conferences, Environmental Science, GIS, GIScience on October 14, 2009 at 9:41 am

allafrica…from AllAfrica.com…

“Uganda will this month host a geoinformation science conference. The global meet is part of efforts to address challenges of climate change, land degradation and natural resource degradation.

“The conference, which will focus on contemporary technologies of Remote Sensing and Geographical Information Systems is set for October 26-30 and will will also address business intelligence.

“GIS expert Mr Yazidhi Bamutaze, a Makerere University lecturer in the Department of Geography yesterday said the conference entitled “Geospatial Information and Sustainable Development in Africa: Facing Challenges of Global Change,” will take place at Speke Resort, Munyonyo.”

GIS Contributes to Groundbreaking Carbon Emissions Inventory

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on October 14, 2009 at 7:56 am

purdueBy C. C. Miller, Purdue University, West Lafayette, Indiana

Researchers from Purdue University’s Project Vulcan developed processes for aggregating carbon emissions data from multiple sources and formats.  Valuable GIS support for this project came from an unlikely source: the university’s library.

Vulcan is a two-year-old project funded by theNational Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and led by Kevin Gurney, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana. Its mission is to quantify North American fossil fuel carbon dioxide (C02) emissions at higher spatial and temporal scales than ever before.

The project’s spatial component called for significant amounts of geoprocessing. The majority of these operations, accomplished with ArcGIS, resolve input geographies (points, roads, counties) with 10-kilometer square grid cells. GIS was also used to place surrogate emissions into grid cells using population, land-use, or some other meaningful proxy when necessary. [Emissions surrogates are used as indicators of emissions activity. The spatial distributions are assumed to be representative of the geographic distribution of emissions sources.] Software, custom-built by team members, could then process all input data at a common unit of geography and an hourly temporal scale for an entire year.

The purpose of the Vulcan project is to quantify North American fossil fuel carbon dioxide (C02) emissions at higher spatial and temporal scales than ever before.

The purpose of the Vulcan project is to quantify North American fossil fuel carbon dioxide (C02) emissions at higher spatial and temporal scales than ever before.

Although much of the Vulcan workflow was ripe for GIS input, GIS was late to the party. Purdue University Libraries hired its first GIS librarian in late 2006 to help push new efforts to apply library science expertise to data and information problems facing researchers in labs and centers across campus. Faculty librarians at Purdue were encouraged to assist any department—Communications, Agronomy, Hospitality, and Tourism Management—with data and information problems. The nature of GIS meant these librarians were likely to find work in all these areas.

Response from collaborating faculty and teams has been swift. Purdue librarians have been welcomed onto teams and into collaborations
not traditionally inclined to allocate a portion of grant funds for librarians’ salaries. In particular, information and data—geodata especially—is so unruly and fluid that apparently researchers appreciate the benefits of having a librarian around who knows GIS, is familiar with the geodata, and can handle classic and developing technologies in GIS and geoinformatics.

Consequently, in late 2006, Vulcan project team members who needed to visualize some county data approached the libraries. Just as traditional library reference transactions tend to do, these requests evolved. Requestors asked increasingly complex questions: What could GIS do with data from multiple sources and programs? How could it represent C02 emitters in different formats? As more questions were answered using GIS, the librarian became part of the Vulcan workflow, supplying GIS support to the team and nagging about the importance of metadata and data archiving.

The rest would have been history, but the response to the initial release of Vulcan data, as well as an emerging sister program at Purdue University, the Hestia project, indicates there is plenty of additional work for all parties. [Hestia combines diverse data about the flow and metabolism of the energy-emissions-climate nexus in an intuitive, interactive, photorealistic, three-dimensional visualization of the Earth.]

Contributing GIS and geospatial technologies to an atmospheric sciences project was not accomplished without some disruption. The lexicons that atmospheric scientists and librarians use to communicate do not always equate, nor do the dictionaries of GIS and atmospheric modeling. In addition, the small Vulcan team is required to move large datasets from place to place.

There has not been time to fully develop all the infrastructure needed to automate and streamline the project’s work. However, as part of the academic trend toward more interdisciplinary scholarship and research, Vulcan is already producing valuable data and tools. Atmospheric science has been the primary beneficiary; computer graphics, geoinformatics, and data librarianship will also benefit from the labor dedicated to and lessons learned from Project Vulcan.

The project is funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and led by Kevin Gurney, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana.

The project is funded by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and led by Kevin Gurney, assistant professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Purdue University in West Lafayette, Indiana.

While all Vulcan’s components are scheduled for improvement, the data used to surrogate emission sources and the automated spot-check mapping infrastructure used to quickly examine model output will be among the first enhanced. Future additions to the project will include intelligent, automated data archiving and online interaction with data. These additions will ensure that—while the computer scientists, computer graphics specialists, and atmospheric scientists will have their hands full with software, visualizations,
and important new analysis—there will still be plenty of work for the resident librarian.

Some geoinformatic aspects of Vulcan were used in an inaugural geoinformatics course taught by Purdue faculty members (including the author of this article) in spring 2008. Project members expect that successful models for working with and disseminating Vulcan data will filter into other initiatives for improving accessibility to geodata across the Purdue campus.

For more information, contact:

C. C. Miller, Assistant Professor of Library Science, Geographic Information Systems Specialist (GIS Librarian),
Purdue University Libraries
Tel.: 765-496-9474
E-mail: ccmiller@purdue.edu
Web: gis.lib.purdue.edu (department) or
www.purdue.edu (institution)

(This article originally appeared in the Winter 2008 issue of GIS Educator.)

Free Data Set: Carbon and Nitrogen Response to Elevated CO2 in Terrestrial Systems

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Science on October 14, 2009 at 6:25 am

“We compiled data from 104 published papers that study C and N dynamics at ambient and elevated CO2. The compiled database contains C contents, N contents, and C:N ratio in various plant and soil pools, and root:shoot ratio. Averaged C and N pool sizes in plant and soil all significantly increase at elevated CO2 in comparison to those at ambient CO2; ranging from a 5% increase in shoot N content to a 32% increase in root C content. Parts of this data set are copyrighted by the Ecological Society of America. Luo, Yiqi, Dafeng Hui, and Deqiang Zhang. 2006. Elevated CO2 stimulates net accumulations of carbon and nitrogen in land ecosystems: a meta-analysis. Ecology 87:53-63. Ecological Archives E087-001.”

Call for Papers: GIScience Applied to Hazard and Climate Change Research, Salzburg, Austria 6-9 July 2010

In Climate Change, Conferences, GIS, GIScience, Spatial Analysis on October 11, 2009 at 9:56 am

Spatial assessment and analysis of vulnerability

GIScience applied in the interdisciplinary domain of hazard and climate change research

Workshop within the framework of GI_Forum 2010
July 6-7, 2010

This theme is expected to highlight different developed and currently investigated methodologies to spatially assess vulnerability. It will specifically address the issue of vulnerability assessment, independent from conceptual discussions. The focus will be on the review and discussion of different methods of GIScience employed to assess, quantify and represent vulnerability as integrated spatial phenomena. Within a workshop session, current achievements and future research challenges will be identified and formulated.
Topics

  • Assessments in the domain of disaster risk reduction, climate change, natural
    hazards and human security domain
  • Methods on indicator selection and index construction
  • Scale issues in vulnerability assessments
  • Validation and accuracy of vulnerability assessments
  • Spatio-temporal visualisation of complex indicators
  • The workshop is scheduled for Tuesday, July 6 and Wednesday, July 7, 2010 and will be followed by the annual GI_Forum. Next to presentations ranging from different scholarly schools of vulnerability the workshop will focus on output oriented discussion sessions.

The papers will be peer-reviewed and published in a book.

Schedule

  • Deadline for submission of full papers for oral presentation and publication in the
    conference proceedings 1 February 2010
  • Notification about accepted contributions 17 March 2010


Author Information and Guidelines [PDF]

Scientific committee

  • Susan L. Cutter, University of South Carolina (Keynote Speaker)
  • Mark Pelling, King’s College London
  • Thomas Loster, Munich Re Foundation
  • Fabrice Renaud, United Nations University (EHS)
  • Klaus Steinnocher, Austrian Institute of Technology
  • Melanie Gall, Louisiana State University
  • Peter Zeil, Centre for Geoinformatics – University of Salzburg
  • Stefan Kienberger, Centre for Geoinformatics – University of Salzburg

Contact: Stefan Kienberger

GIS Professor Opening at South Dakota State University

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling on October 9, 2009 at 2:09 pm

southdakota…from the GIS in Education blog…

“The Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence (GISCE) at the South Dakota State University is in need of an Associate Professor or Full Professor to fill up its faculty position vacancy.

“An Associate or Full Professor with research interests in quantitative remote sensing, large-area terrestrial monitoring and/or modeling is sought for a position with the Geographic Information Science Center of Excellence. Specialization in one of the following areas is preferred: 1) land/atmosphere interactions and climate modeling, 2) active sensors (radar and/or lidar) for vegetation characterization, 3) modeling the dynamics of coupled human-environmental systems. The position workload is 80% research, 10% teaching, and 10% service. Research includes securing externally funded grant awards and recruiting and supervising grant-funded researchers. Teaching responsibilities include instructing one course per year and recruiting and advising students in the Geospatial Science and Engineering doctoral program. Service to international and/or national research organizations, the University, and the Center is expected. The successful candidate will hold academic rank at SDSU in Geography and/or other appropriate department. The successful candidate will be expected to train and advise graduate students, post-doctoral researchers, and research assistants.”

Solving the Puzzle: Researching the Impacts of Climate Change Around the World

In Climate Change, Science on October 9, 2009 at 10:37 am

nsf_climate…a new report from the National Science Foundation…

“This report addresses some of the major questions facing climate change researchers, and how those puzzles are being addressed by NSF-funded activities. Complex computer models are being developed and refi ned to predict Earth’s future climate. Observations of climate conditions from observatory networks distributed in Earth’s oceans, polar regions, land masses, and near-Earth orbit improve the accuracy of the climate models. Records of Earth’s past climate provide important insights into the mechanisms involved in climate cycles of the past, and can help to refine computational models by allowing researchers to simulate past climate. But understanding climate is only part of the story—as we improve our knowledge of how Earth’s climate is changing, we also improve our ability to cope with the impacts of global climate change and variability. Through social, economic, and behavioral science, researchers are learning how human behavior factors into climate change—and how human behavior can be modifi ed to ameliorate our impact on Earth’s climate. Physical scientists and engineers are developing alternative ways of creating, storing, and using energy to reduce the amount of carbon that human activities contribute to the atmosphere. Researchers are also building the scientific foundation for the tools that humanity may need in the future to counteract the eff ects of global climate change.”

Call for Papers: Geoinformatics Forum, 6-9 July 2009, Salzburg, Austria

In Climate Change, Conferences, GIS, SDI, Spatial Analysis on October 8, 2009 at 7:45 am

GI-forumThe Geoinformatics Forum (GI_Forum) focuses on an international audience that shares an interest in Applied Geoinformatics. This Call for Papers aims at researchers who design, develop and apply advanced methods and techniques of Geoinformatics to a broad range of application domains.

GI_Forum solicits contributions on emerging topics and research outcomes related to current Geoinformatics methodology, and especially wishes to attract submissions pertaining to the following topics:

• Advances in Geovisualization and Cartography (in cooperation with InterCarto-InterGIS)
• Spatial Data Infrastructure
• Mobile GIS and Location Based Services
• Digital Terrain Representation and Analysis
• Digital Cities and Urban Sustainability
• Global Change: Monitoring and Modelling
• Vulnerability: Spatial Assessment and Analysis
• Learning with Geoinformation

GI_Forum 2010 gives authors choices about the type of submission they want to make in order to accommodate a variety of interdisciplinary contributions. Submissions are expected in English language according to the formatting guidelines published on the conference website.

Deadline for submission of full papers for oral presentation and publication in the conference proceedings and extended abstracts for discussion sessions is 01 February 2010.

Latest Research on Oregon’s Oceanic “Dead Zones” and How Climate Change May Be Promoting Them

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on October 7, 2009 at 10:13 am

nsflogoYet another ecological scourge may earn a place on the ever-lengthening list of problems associated with climate change: the formation of some types of so-called “dead zones”–marine expanses covering hundreds, or even thousands, of square miles that become too oxygen-starved during the summer to support most life forms.

Armed with new analyses of Oregon’s 2009 dead zone season, Jack Barth of Oregon State University will explain how climate change may be promoting the development of Oregon’s dead zones, summarize the ecological impacts of dead zones, discuss why scientists believe that dead zones are now regular summer fixtures in Oregon’s coastal waters, and describe his research team’s pioneering methods for studying dead zones in Oregon and Chile.

Oregon’s marine dead zones are a particularly timely topic because: 1) the Earth currently has more than 400 dead zones–with the count doubling every ten years; 2) scientists suspect that dead zones off the Oregon and Washington coasts may be caused by climate change, unlike the overwhelming majority of dead zones, which are caused by pollution; 3) the Pacific Northwest’s dead zones are located in one of the nation’s most important fisheries; and 4) the Pacific Northwest’s dead zones, which have appeared every summer since 2002, are a relatively new phenomenon.

In addition to hosting the webcast with Jack Barth on October 8, the National Science Foundation (NSF) will also release on October 8 a multi-media package about the Pacific Northwest’s dead zones, entitled Dead Zones: Mysteries of Ocean Die-Offs Revealed. The multimedia package will be posted on NSF’s Web site at http://www.nsf.gov.

Who: Jack Barth, an expert on Oregon’s dead zones from Oregon State University.
What: Media teleconference and webcast to discuss Oregon’s Dead Zones.
When: Thursday, October 8, 2009, at 1:30 p.m. Eastern Time.

How to Participate: Reporters are invited to participate in a live video teleconference hosted by NSF with Jack Barth of Oregon State University on Thursday, October 8, at 1:30 p.m. U.S. Eastern Time. Reporters in the United States may participate by teleconference or Internet. To participate by teleconference, call (800) 779-5386. To obtain the password to participate in the teleconference and to obtain the URL and password to access the webcast, email Lily Whiteman at lwhitema@nsf.gov. During the event, email questions for Jack Barth to webcast@nsf.gov.

[Source: NSF press release]

Did Climate Change Cause the Maya to Disappear?

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling, Science on October 7, 2009 at 10:05 am

nasa_logo…from Science@NASA…

“A major drought occurred about the time the Maya began to disappear. And at the time of their collapse, the Maya had cut down most of the trees across large swaths of the land to clear fields for growing corn to feed their burgeoning population. They also cut trees for firewood and for making building materials.

“They had to burn 20 trees to heat the limestone for making just 1 square meter of the lime plaster they used to build their tremendous temples, reservoirs, and monuments,” explains Sever.

“He and his team used computer simulations to reconstruct how the deforestation could have played a role in worsening the drought. They isolated the effects of deforestation using a pair of proven computer climate models: the PSU/NCAR mesoscale atmospheric circulation model, known as MM5, and the Community Climate System Model, or CCSM.

“”We modeled the worst and best case scenarios: 100 percent deforestation in the Maya area and no deforestation,” says Sever. “The results were eye opening. Loss of all the trees caused a 3-5 degree rise in temperature and a 20-30 percent decrease in rainfall.”

An Analysis of Simulated California Climate Using Multiple Dynamical and Statistical Techniques – Final Report

In Climate Change, Modeling, Statistics on October 7, 2009 at 8:00 am

CEC-500-2009-017-F“Four dynamic regional climate models (University of California, Santa Cruz” RegCM3; the University of California, San Diego’s RSM; the National Center for Atmospheric Research’s WRF-RUC; and the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory/University of California, Berkeley’s WRF-CLM3) and one statistical downscaling approach (the University of California, San Diego’s CANA) were used to downscale 10 years of historical climate in California. To isolate possible limitations of the downscaling methods, initial and lateral boundary conditions from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction global reanalysis were used. Results of this downscaling were compared to observations and to an independent, fine-resolution reanalysis (the North American Regional Reanalysis). This evaluation is preparation for simulations of future-climate scenarios, the second phase of this California Energy Commission climate projections project, which will lead to probabilistic scenarios. Each model has its own strengths and weaknesses, which are summarized here. In general, the dynamic models perform as well as other state-of-the-art dynamical regional climate models, and the statistical model has comparable or superior skill, although for a very limited set of meteorological variables. As is typical of dynamical climate models, there remain uncertainties in simulating clouds, precipitation, and snow accumulation and depletion rates. Hence, the weakest aspects of the dynamical models are parameterized processes, while the weakest aspect of the statistical downscaling procedure is the limitation in predictive variables. However, the resulting simulations yield a better understanding of model spread and bias and will be used as part of the California probabilistic scenarios and impacts.”

Video: Using GIS to Analyze Sea Level Potential and Temperature Extremes

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Video on October 7, 2009 at 6:16 am

Analyzing Sea Level Potential and Temperature Extremes within A GIS Environment. Prepared for Earth Science Week 2010.

Technology Drives Climate Science: A GIS-based Action Plan

In Climate Change, Design, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Science, Spatial Analysis, Visualization on October 5, 2009 at 12:52 pm

Our world faces unprecedented challenges, and only one technology is poised to collect, manage, and analyze the myriad of physical, biological, and cultural data describing the past, present, and future of Earth.  That technology is geographic information systems (GIS), commonly used today to view and manage information about geographic places, analyze geographic relationships, and model geographic processes.

GIS technology has proven to be invaluable in driving intelligent decision making, and its application to climate science is a natural fit.  In fact, extensive work has already been done over the last 40 years to apply GIS technology to address subjects such as land use inventory, data model development, climate model integration, carbon accounting, and climate change visualization.

We are at a point in the evolution of the technology and its broad application where the next logical step is development of a GIS-based framework for earth systems modeling and global design.  Such a system would cross academic, scientific, and industrial domains and political boundaries to serve as a platform for a comprehensive climate monitoring, modeling, and management system.

There are several actions we can take now to establish a framework that leverages mature GIS technology to advance climate science.

  • Create a Comprehensive Climate Information System. A GIS-based platform for modeling and managing earth systems will help us identify climate trends, understand the effects of climate change, design mitigation plans, predict possible outcomes, monitor results, and provide feedback for an adaptive response.
  • Create a Climate Data Infrastructure. A global spatial data infrastructure for climate change studies—a loosely-coupled, decentralized directory of all types of climate and map data and imagery—will serve as the basis for earth systems modeling and global design projects conducted in the Climate Information System.
  • Integrate Earth Systems Modeling. A thorough inventory of climate change related spatial data models and sharing of best practices on interoperability will be of tremendous value as we build a Climate Information System for analyzing impacts and alternative futures at a comprehensive, global scale.
  • Develop a Global Climate Dashboard. A Global Climate Dashboard would summarize information from the Climate Information System, providing “executives” and citizens alike with real-time geographic visualization of various earth systems parameters, enabling a more responsive, iterative, and adaptive response to climate change.
  • Move towards Global Design. A GIS-based geodesign framework will provide a robust set of tools for design professionals to support the design and evaluation of alternate futures for our earth and its systems.

We are only beginning to understand the complex issues posed by climate change.  Only through careful observation of the data, application of scientific principals, and leveraging of modern technology can we hope to grasp the intricacies of the exceedingly complex systems that comprise our planet.  A GIS-based framework for climate science offers the best chance at gaining a scientific understanding of earth systems at a truly global scale and for making thoughtful, informed design decisions that ultimately allow humans and nature to coexist more harmoniously.

UN Chief Ban Ki-moon: IT ‘Vital’ in Climate Change Fight

In Climate Change, GIS on October 5, 2009 at 10:09 am

…from Yahoo!News…

“Information and communication technologies are “vital” in tackling climate change, UN chief Ban Ki-moon said Monday, urging the industry to think up fresh ideas to harness technology and usher in a green economy.

“Opening one of the industry’s biggest fairs, ITU Telecom World, Ban said: “ICTs are … very vital to confronting the problems we face as a planet: the threat of climate change.”"

Report Shows Future Growth, Current Challenges for Carbon Software Market

In Climate Change on October 5, 2009 at 7:29 am

…from ClimateBiz.com…

“Regulatory shifts in climate change policy around the world will spur companies to ditch the simple Excel spreadsheets they’ve been using to track their emissions in favor of carbon management software. The trend will lead to an explosion within the market, pushing its value from at least $20 million now to more than $250 million in 2012, a new report found.

“But as companies make the transition from spreadsheets, they often find themselves confused by the ever-growing selection of carbon management software on the market, according to Verdantix, the U.K.-based research firm that published the report today, titled “Green Quadrant: Carbon Management Software.”"

Free Webinar: Climate Change Legislation and its Implications for your Business

In Climate Change on October 5, 2009 at 6:28 am

In a webcast on  September 29, 2009, TerraPass and panelists from ICF International, the Climate Action Registry, and Expedia.com  explored the continual evolution of climate legislation, its implications for your business, and what actions you can take today.  If you missed it, the presentations are archived online.

Victoria Leading the Way for a Low-Carbon Future

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on October 4, 2009 at 6:13 pm

The South Australian state of Victoria has become the first in the world to effectively inventory the amount of carbon stored in its public forests, parks and reserves using a carbon accounting system proposed by the Australian government’s cap-and-trade system.

“This new information will help Victorian landowners to enter the carbon market, identify reforestation sites and measure carbon on their own land,” said Victoria Environment and Climate Change Minister Gavin Jennings.

Releasing the research in Los Angeles at the California Governor’s Climate Change Summit, Mr. Jennings encouraged his own government to consider this new evidence about the carbon storage and emissions from public land in the design of Australia’s Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme and international climate change negotiations in Copenhagen in December.

The modelling results show that Victoria’s public land holds the equivalent of 3,031 million (U.S.) tons of carbon dioxide—or 23 years of Victoria’s total greenhouse gas emissions.

“The Victorian Government strongly supports the Commonwealth’s proposed Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme,” Mr. Jennings said. “By measuring our state’s carbon with the Commonwealth’s proposed carbon accounting system, we can make more informed decisions about our natural resources and reforestation projects in Victoria in the future.

” The Vic LandCarbon project takes into account how bushfire, fuel-reduction burning and harvesting impact levels of carbon stored on public land.

“In the past we have estimated the carbon dioxide emissions from large scale bushfires, but we now can pinpoint how much carbon is emitted by bushfires compared with the carbon that is captured during the regeneration process,” Mr. Jennings added.

From this Australia-first modelling, Victoria officials now know that carbon dioxide emissions generated from the February 2009 bushfires on public land exceeded 9.4 million (U.S.) tons.

“The modelling also shows that bushfires in Victoria over the last decade have emitted over 70 million tonnes (77 tons) of carbon dioxide,” Mr. Jennings added.

The results found that over an extended period of time, planned burning can reduce the severity of bushfires, lessening the amount of emissions generated by bushfire.

The Victoria government is building information and science to consider the carbon asset of its public land to drive green jobs and future investment in carbon storage on both public and private land.

“Victoria’s forests will continue to deliver the resources we depend on such as timber, biodiversity and recreation, while reducing the state’s carbon footprint to deliver a healthy future,” Mr. Jennings said.

For more information visit: www.climatechange.vic.gov.au

[Source: Australian government press release]

Norway Sets Basis for Forest Protection Aid to Guyana

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on October 4, 2009 at 6:11 pm

…from Stabroek News…

“Norway is prepared to provide performance-based, “substantial and sustained” compensation for the progress Guyana makes in limiting emissions from deforestation and further decreasing forest degradation.

“A joint statement following a meeting between President Bharrat Jagdeo and Norway’s Prime Minister Jens Stoltenberg in Oslo on Tuesday and posted on the Norwegian Prime Minister’s Website said that the two countries pledged to establish closer cooperation on climate and forest issues. Jagdeo was in that country to discuss those topics and the two leaders agreed to establish a partnership to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from deforestation. The goal is to establish mechanisms on deforestation and forest degradation to be included in a post-2012 climate change agreement, the Prime Minister’s website said.”

Students Conduct Research at the “Icy Edge” of Climate Change in the Peruvian Andes

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on October 2, 2009 at 1:22 pm

ucsc…from UC Santa Cruz…

“High in the Peruvian Andes, undergraduate Galen Licht was slipping and sliding on the surface of a glacier. Using ground-penetrating radar to measure the depth of the ice as part of a climate-change research expedition, he was having the time of his life.

“It was a perfect job for Licht, who had yearned for an opportunity to work on the front lines of climate change since his first quarter at UCSC.

“Licht spent a year working on related projects in preparation for the trip. He used geographic information systems (GIS) technology to generate a digital elevation model of the region that Bury used in the field. The National Science Foundation provided funds for the trip through its Research Experience for Undergraduates (REU) Program.”

Governor Schwarzenegger Issues Statement on Creation of Nation’s Largest Carbon Sequestration Project

In Climate Change on October 2, 2009 at 11:05 am

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger today issued the following statement after Sierra Pacific Industries announced the creation of the nation’s largest carbon sequestration project:

“Last week California adopted important accounting rules for capturing carbon through improved forestry practices and this week Sierra Pacific is using those rules to sequester more than one million tons of carbon dioxide. This agreement and the partnerships formed at this summit will help people around the world reduce the 20 percent of global warming emissions that come from deforestation.”

This announcement follows the California Air Resources Board’s adoption of the Forest Project Protocol 3.0 – a set of guidelines establishing accounting rules for determining the climate benefits of forest carbon sequestration projects. The updated protocol removes some of the barriers to participation, such as the requirement for conservation easements and now opens up the voluntary offsets market to private landowners, public lands and out-of-state projects.

These guidelines have allowed Sierra Pacific Industries, California’s largest private landowner and Equator, LLC, a natural resources asset management firm, to enter into a contract creating the nation’s largest carbon sequestration project. This agreement consists of four projects that will be implemented over five years – spanning approximately 60,000 acres of forest across the Sierra.

Under this agreement, Equator, LLC, will purchase carbon dioxide equivalent offsets from Sierra Pacific that will result in the sequestration of 1.5 million tons of carbon dioxide – equivalent to taking 300,000 cars off the road for a year.

[Source: State of California press release]

USGS Maps Show Mismatch between Locations of U.S. Carbon Dioxide Production, Sequestration Sites

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on October 2, 2009 at 9:12 am

“There is a mismatch between the largest sources and the largest oil and gas traps. To process, transport, and store CO2, industrial infrastructure larger than the size of the current U.S. natural gas and petroleum industry infrastructure may be required (illustrated in the map comparison below):”

source_trap_mismatch1

source_trap_mismatch2

Climate Change Poses Grave Threat to U.S. National Parks: New Report Identifies Top Threats and Recommendations to Protect Parks

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on October 2, 2009 at 8:26 am

nrdcClimate change from human activity is the leading threat to wildlife, plants, water and ice in 25 of America’s national parks, according to a new report by the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) and Rocky Mountain Climate Organization (RMCO).

The report, NationalParks in Peril, comes on the heels of the introduction of clean energy and climate legislation in the U.S. Senate, as well as Ken Burns’ national parks series on PBS, which has put parks in the center of America’s national conscience.

“As a country, we need to ensure that our parks have a future that is as promising as their past,” said Theo Spencer, senior advocate for the Climate Center at the Natural Resources Defense Council. “Clean energy legislation is now moving in Congress that would help preserve our national treasures, while creating more jobs, economic growth and national security.”

The report outlines climate-related threats in 25 parks spanning 22 states. The top risks include: loss of snow and water, rising seas, more extreme weather, loss of plants and wildlife, and more pollution.

“Climate disruption is the greatest threat ever to our national parks. We could lose entire national parks for the first time, as Everglades, Ellis Island, and other parks could be submerged by rising seas,” said Stephen Saunders, president of the Rocky Mountain Climate Organization and the report’s principal author. “To preserve our parks, we need to reduce the heat-trapping gases that are threatening them, and begin managing the parks to protect resources at risk.”

Remedies, which are outlined in the report, include enacting comprehensive clean energy legislation, including reducing carbon pollution by at least 20 percent below current levels by 2020; increasing investment in energy efficiency; and accelerating the development of clean energy technologies. The National Parks Service also needs to prioritize this issue by enacting policies to mitigate the impacts of global warming; and should have more funding for research and to reduce the effects of climate change.

Bill Wade, chair of the executive council of the Coalition of National Park Service Retirees (CNPSR) and former superintendent of Shenandoah National Park in Virginia, said: “National parks are often referred to as the ‘canaries in the mine shafts’ when it comes to climate change. By their very characteristics and locations, impacts and effects of climate change are noticed in national parks first and are a forewarning about what will happen elsewhere. That’s why this report is particularly important.”

For the full report, including the list of the National Parks, visit the RMCO site.

More information about national parks and global warming is also available at www.nrdc.org/land/parksinperil/

[Source: NRDC press release]

NOAA Visualization of Land and Ocean Surface Temperature: August 2009 One of the Warmest Months on Record

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Visualization on October 2, 2009 at 8:05 am

visvid

“The world’s ocean surface temperature was the warmest for any August on record, and the warmest on record averaged for any June-August summer season, according to NOAA’s National Climatic Data Center in Asheville, N.C. World-wide records began in 1880. Shown here is a visualization of the August global temperature anomalies–or in other words, how the average temperature in August differs from the average climate of 1961-1990. Notice that in some areas, such as the central United States, temperatures were much cooler than average. But overall, land and ocean temperatures were several degrees above normal.”

[Source: NOAA News story about the August 2009 climate analysis by NCDC]

California timber firm to Market its Forests as Weapon Against Global Warming

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on October 1, 2009 at 8:10 pm

llatimesogoSmall…from the Los Angeles Times…

“Sierra Pacific’s announcement comes less than a week after the Schwarzenegger administration pushed through new rules allowing the company to sell carbon credits.

“The state’s largest timber company Wednesday announced a groundbreaking agreement to begin marketing its vast forests as a weapon in the fight against global warming.

“Sierra Pacific Industries’ announcement comes less than a week after the administration of Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger pushed through new rules that allow the firm to sell its trees’ ability to absorb harmful carbon dioxide from the air.”

http://www.latimes.com/news/local/la-me-logging-deal1-2009oct01,0,3972470.story

Adapting to Climate Change: The Global Adaptation Atlas

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, Geography on October 1, 2009 at 2:30 pm

hotspots…from Resources for the Future…

“Threats posed by climate change bring current development challenges into sharper focus. Even if we successfully avert the most severe predicted impacts, local changes will complicate the already-demanding tasks of finding clean water, combating disease, and sustaining livelihoods around the world. Successfully prioritizing, implementing, tracking, and evaluating such projects will require extraordinary new ways of coordinating and disseminating data to understand: What are the critical impacts we need to address? What are our options for responding? Have our efforts been effectively targeted over time?

“To answer these questions, this initiative is creating a dynamic new online tool: The Global Adaptation Atlas*. This project, building on RFF’s long history and expertise in environmental research, policy evaluation, and spatial analysis, will employ mapping software including ArcGIS Server and Google Earth to capture ever-evolving information on both climate impacts and adaptation activities. The Atlas will enable a global community of scientists, policymakers, and citizens to visualize what impacts are likely to affect their regions, what responses are underway, and what gaps need to be filled.

“Successful adaptation depends on site-specific attention and effective large-scale coordination. Without both we run the risk of investing in adaptation measures that could undercut one another. Decision makers require information not only on how their local climate could change, but also on what all parties in the area are doing in response. Right now, no central clearinghouse exists to accessibly and comprehensively combine these data. With the Atlas, RFF aims to bridge this gap.

“We gratefully acknowledge funding and support from the Mistra Foundation Climate Policy Research Program (Clipore), Resources for the Future, Goldman Sachs, and ESRI.”

ESRI Commits to Clinton Global Initiative with Carbon Reduction Solution

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies on October 1, 2009 at 8:49 am

esriSan Francisco GreenRoutes Project Set to Reduce Fleet Emissions with ESRI ArcLogistics and NAVTEQ Data GIS Solution

The City and County of San Francisco is working with ESRI and NAVTEQ to implement a pilot program that reduces greenhouse gas emissions. This project is part of a commitment with the Clinton Global Initiative (CGI). By using ESRI’s ArcLogistics software, San Francisco will optimize its fleet operations and reduce its carbon footprint. NAVTEQ’s highly detailed map data, which is essential for efficient route planning, is built into the ESRI routing solution.

The project is a result of ESRI, NAVTEQ, and San Francisco’s participation in CGI, with a goal to reduce carbon emissions. The William J. Clinton Foundation launched the Clinton Global Initiative to create and advance solutions to the core issues driving climate change, including reducing carbon emissions. At the CGI 2009 Annual Meeting, held in New York City September 22–25, ESRI President Jack Dangermond announced ESRI’s commitment to the CGI endeavor and described San Francisco’s pilot program. This commitment includes a grant of ESRI’s route optimization software ArcLogistics to local governments in large metropolitan areas. San Francisco is the pilot participant in this national project.

“ESRI’s ArcLogistics software is being used in San Francisco’s GreenRoutes pilot program,” notes San Francisco’s Mayor Gavin Newsom. “It will create more efficient routes for the ‘city’s fleet vehicles, thereby helping decrease municipal fuel costs and greenhouse gas emissions. We are pleased to be partnering with ESRI on this innovative program.”

Prior to this project, San Francisco’s fleet did not use a route calculation technology product. Using ArcLogistics and NAVTEQ map data, San Francisco fleet managers will be able to organize work assignments into routes based on actual street drive time and miles. The route scheduling function will further reduce fleet carbon emissions by suggesting an optimized stop sequence.

The pilot project includes an emissions analysis. Fleet managers will identify candidate fleets to be used in the project, and analysts will determine each fleet’s current carbon emission level. They will then deploy ESRI’s routing technology and, after one operational year, calculate the emission reductions realized. San Francisco will publish its findings so that government fleet managers around the nation can better assess the value of fleet routing software for emission reduction.

ESRI and NAVTEQ have made a 10-year commitment to supply San Francisco with ArcLogistics Desktop software, ArcLogistics Navigator software, and NAVTEQ map data.

ArcLogistics software users typically report fleet-related cost savings of 15–20 percent. This is attributable to the software’s route-solving ability to include time windows, vehicle capacity, and the nature of the street network. It also enables dispatchers to provide drivers with barrier information, such as road closures, construction, or traffic incidents, so they can meet scheduled appointments. The application fully integrates with GPS.

NAVTEQ map data includes the latest street geometry with navigational attributes that facilitate turn-by-turn directions and enable in-dash vehicle and portable navigation devices, route planning, route optimization, and map display.

Learn more about ArcLogistics at www.esri.com/arclogistics and about NAVTEQ at www.navteq-connections.com/enterpriseamericas.

[Source: ESRI press release]

How Will Climate Change Impact World Food Supplies?

In Climate Change, Science on September 30, 2009 at 4:22 pm

sciam…from Scientific American…

“A new study attempts to estimate the effects of climate change on global agriculture–and outline ways to mitigate its most dire consequences.”

Proposed Clean Energy Jobs and American Power Act includes Provision for National Wildlife Habitat and Corridors Information Program

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS on September 30, 2009 at 9:51 am

billSEC. 371. NATIONAL FISH AND WILDLIFE HABITAT AND CORRIDORS INFORMATION PROGRAM.

(a) DEFINITIONS.—In this section:

(1) GEOSPATIAL INTEROPERABILITY FRAMEWORK.—The term ‘‘Geospatial Interoperability Framework’’ means the strategy used by the National Biological Information Infrastructure (based on accepted standards, specifications, and protocols adopted through the International Standards Organization, the Open Geospatial Consortium, and the Federal Geographic Data Committee) to manage, archive, integrate, analyze, and make geospatial and  biological data and metadata accessible.

(2) PROGRAM.—The term ‘‘Program’’ means the National Fish and Wildlife Habitat and Corridors Information Program established under subsection (b).

(3) SECRETARY.—The term ‘‘Secretary’’ means the Secretary of the Interior.

(4) SYSTEM.—The term ‘‘System’’ means the Habitat and Corridors Information System established under subsection (d)(1).

(b) ESTABLISHMENT.—Not later than 180 days after the date of enactment of this Act, the Secretary, in cooperation with the States and Indian tribes, shall establish a National Fish and Wildlife Habitat and Corridors Information Program.

(c) PURPOSE.—The purposes of the Program are—

(1) to support States and Indian tribes in developing geographical information system databases of fish and wildlife habitats and corridors that—

(A) inform planning and development decisions within each State;

(B) enable each State to model climate impacts and adaptation; and

(C) provide geographically specific enhancements of State wildlife action plans;

(2) to ensure the collaborative development of a comprehensive national geographic information system database of maps, models, data, surveys, informational products, and other geospatial information regarding fish and wildlife habitat and corridors that—

(A) is based on consistent protocols for sampling and mapping across landscapes;

(B) takes into account regional differences; and

(C) uses—

(i) existing and planned State- and tribal-based geographical information system databases; and

(ii) existing databases, analytical tools, metadata activities, and other information products available through the National Biological Information Infrastructure maintained by the Secretary and nongovernmental organizations; and

(iii) to facilitate the use of those databases by Federal, State, local, and tribal decision makers to incorporate qualitative information on fish and wildlife habitats and corridors at the earliest practicable stage for use in—

(A) prioritizing and targeting natural resources adaptation strategies and activities;

(B) avoiding, minimizing, and mitigating the impacts on fish and wildlife habitat and corridors when locating energy development, water, transmission, transportation, and other land use projects;

(C) assessing the impacts of existing development on habitats and corridors; and

(D) developing management strategies that enhance the ability of fish, wildlife, and plant species to migrate or respond to shifting habitats within existing habitats and corridors.

(d) HABITAT AND CORRIDORS INFORMATION SYSTEM.—

(1) IN GENERAL.—The Secretary, in cooperation with States and Indian tribes, shall establish a Habitat and Corridors Information System.

(2) CONTENTS.—The System shall—

(A) include maps, data, and descriptions of fish and wildlife habitat and corridors that—

(i) have been developed by Federal agencies, State wildlife agencies, and natural heritage programs, Indian tribes, local governments, nongovernmental organizations, and industry; and

(ii) meet accepted geospatial interoperability framework data and metadata protocols and standards;

(B) include maps and descriptions of projected shifts in habitats and corridors of fish and wildlife species in response to climate change;

(C) ensure data quality;

(D) at scales useful to decision makers, make data, models, and analyses included in the System available—

(i) to prioritize and target natural resources adaptation strategies and activities;

(ii) to assess the impacts of existing development on habitats and corridors;

(iii) to assess the impacts of proposed energy development, water, transmission, transportation, and other land use projects and to avoid, minimize, or mitigate those impacts on habitats and corridors; and

(iv) to develop management strategies that enhance the ability of fish, wildlife, and plant species to migrate or respond to shifting habitats within existing habitats and corridors;

(E) update maps and other information as landscapes, habitats, corridors, and wildlife populations change, or as new information becomes available;

(F) encourage development of collaborative plans by Federal and State agencies and Indian tribes that monitor and evaluate the ability of the System to meet the needs of decision makers;

(G) identify gaps in habitat and corridor information, mapping, and research needed to fully assess current data and metadata;

(H) prioritize research and future data collection activities for use in updating the System and provide support for those activities;

(I) include mechanisms to support collaborative research, mapping, and planning of habitats and corridors by Federal and State agencies, Indian tribes, and other interested stakeholders;

(J) incorporate biological and geospatial data on species and corridors found in energy development and transmission plans, including renewable energy initiatives, transportation, and other land use plans;

(K) identify, prioritize, and describe key parcels of non-Federal land that—

(i) are located within units of the National Park System, National Wildlife Refuge System, National Forest System, or National Grassland System; and

(ii) are critical to maintenance of wildlife habitat and migration corridors; and

(L) be based on the best scientific information available.

(e) FINANCIAL AND OTHER SUPPORT.—The Secretary may provide support to the States and Indian tribes, including financial and technical assistance, for activities that support the development and implementation of the System.

(f) COORDINATION.—In cooperation with States and Indian tribes, the Secretary shall recommend how the information in the System may be incorporated into relevant State and Federal plans that affect fish and wildlife, including—

(1) land management plans;

(2) the State Comprehensive Wildlife Conservation Strategies; and

(3) appropriate tribal conservation plans.

(g) PURPOSE OF INCORPORATION.—The Secretary shall make the recommendations required by subsection (f) to ensure that relevant State and Federal plans that affect fish and wildlife—

(1) prevent unnecessary habitat fragmentation and disruption of corridors;

(2) promote the landscape connectivity necessary to allow wildlife to move as necessary to meet biological needs, adjust to shifts in habitat, and adapt to climate change; and

(3) minimize the impacts of energy, development, water, transportation, and transmission projects and other activities expected to impact habitat and corridors.

New Report: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States

In Books, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Video on September 30, 2009 at 6:32 am

…new report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program…

“The report summarizes the science and the impacts of climate change on the United States, now and in the future. It focuses on climate change impacts in different regions of the U.S. and on various aspects of society and the economy such as energy, water, agriculture, and health. It’s also a report written in plain language, with the goal of better informing public and private decision making at all levels.

Post-Doctoral Research of Soil Carbon Cycling at Michigan Technological University

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS on September 29, 2009 at 11:12 am

michtech…from Environmental Research Web…

“Applications are invited for the position of post-doctoral researcher to study soil carbon cycling at broad spatial scales and coordinate activities of the National Soil Carbon Network (NSCN). This position is jointly funded by the USDA Forest Service, US Geological Survey, and Northern Institute of Applied Carbon Science. General responsibilities will include:

  1. “Database development: Support the development of a coherent, searchable, and expandable database with an advanced analysis environment. This database will be oriented to a wide range of individual investigators, small networks, and national agencies interested in spatially explicit soil C information.
  2. “Data synthesis: Test the efficacy of the database and interface by combining data from multiple large datasets and individual users, comparing multiple data input forms (isotopes, spectral analysis, etc), and producing a distinct synthesis product related to soil C distribution and vulnerability.
  3. “Community organization: Support NSCN workshops focused on data-sharing, protocol-development, and advanced website engineering for database interaction and community discussion; disseminate Network products and draw increased participation and collaboration through the web and NACP activities.

“A PhD in soil science, biogeochemistry, ecology, environmental engineering, or related field is required, as is a proven capacity to modify and run models and to design and manipulate large databases. The candidate should have strong interpersonal and organizational capabilities related to multi-investigator and large-scale studies. Experience with any of the following will be an asset: GIS, ecosystem modeling (CLM, CLM-CN, CASA, IBIS, DayCENT, etc), uncertainty analysis, or software engineering.”

New Analysis Brings Dire Forecast of 6.3-Degree Temperature Increase

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling on September 29, 2009 at 7:12 am

washingtonpost…from the Washington Post…

“Climate researchers now predict the planet will warm by 6.3 degrees Fahrenheit by the end of the century even if the world’s leaders fulfill their most ambitious climate pledges, a much faster and broader scale of change than forecast just two years ago, according to a report released Thursday by the United Nations Environment Program.

“The new overview of global warming research, aimed at marshaling political support for a new international climate pact by the end of the year, highlights the extent to which recent scientific assessments have outstripped the predictions issued by the Nobel Prize-winning U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007.”

Clinton Global Initiative, ESRI, NAVTEQ Commit Resources to Meet Climate Change Challenge

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on September 29, 2009 at 6:26 am

clinton…from Environment News Service…

“A multi-billion dollar outpouring of generosity marked the fifth annual meeting of the Clinton Global Initiative last week in New York. CGI members committed themselves to work toward solutions in four global challenge areas – energy and climate change, education, global health, and economic empowerment.

“2009 Clinton Global Initiative environmental commitments include:

  • “ESRI and NAVTEQ, in partnership with the City of San Francisco, commit to implement a pilot program to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from specific municipal vehicle fleets, and mobile work force vehicles in the city and county of San Francisco. By using fleet route optimization software, city workers will locate routes that minimize fuel consumption.”

Read more

7% of World Population = 50% of Carbon Emissions

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Social Science on September 29, 2009 at 6:08 am

ns_logo…from New Scientist…

“Even if the world population does stabilise soon and starts to glide downwards, that won’t solve the world’s environmental problems. The real issue is not overpopulation but overconsumption – mostly in rich countries that have long since given up adding substantial numbers to their population.

“Take one measure: carbon dioxide emissions. Stephen Pacala, director of the Princeton Environmental Institute, calculates that the world’s richest half billion people – that’s about 7 per cent of the global population – are responsible for 50 per cent of the world’s emissions. Meanwhile, the poorest 50 per cent are responsible for just 7 per cent of emissions. One American or European is more often than not responsible for more emissions than an entire village of Africans.”

Texas A&M Scholarship: Effects of Climate Change on Indigenous Cultural Sites

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Social Science on September 28, 2009 at 10:37 am

texasam“The scholarship will fund two years of study in a Master of Science program at Texas A&M University, Department of Ecosystem Science & Management.

“Successful applicants will work with Dr. Rusty Feagin of Texas A&M University and Dr. David Hurst Thomas of the American Museum of Natural History. Students will create ranked listings of indigenous cultural sites at the highest risk for destruction from climate change impacts; including current in‐use places as well as areas of archaeological significance along North American coastlines. Students are expected to develop research in climate change impacts on coastal regions, the preservation of indigenous cultural sites, and the use of geographic information systems (GIS) to address both natural and social science questions. The scholarship will also enable participation at meetings of the Coastal Barrier Island Network (CBIN), a National Science Foundation‐funded Research Coordination Network in Biological Sciences.”

The FullCAM Carbon Accounting Model: Development, Calibration, and Implementation for the National Carbon Accounting System

In Climate Change, GIS, Imagery, Modeling, Spatial Analysis on September 25, 2009 at 8:55 am

aus_greenhouse“The Australian National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS) : supports Australia’s position in the international development of policy and guidelines on sinks activity and greenhouse gas emissions mitigation from land based systems; reduces the scientific uncertainties that surround estimates of land based greenhouse gas emissions and sequestration in the Australian context; provides monitoring capabilities for existing land based emissions and sinks, and scenario development and modelling capabilities that support greenhouse gas mitigation and the sinks development agenda through to 2012 and beyond; and provides the scientific and technical basis for international negotiations and promotes Australia’s national interests in international flora.

“Subsequent to the development of the Excel based CAMFor model for the Australian Greenhouse Office, work commenced on the development of an integrated model which combined the CAMFor model with the 3PG forest growth model, the GENDEC litter decomposition model and the Rothamsted soil carbon model (Roth C). A parallel version of the CAMFor model (CAMAg) was developed for agricultural systems and is also integrated with GENDEC and the Roth C model.

“The model developed, known as FullCAM, integrates the CAMFor and CAMAg based routines to a single C code model capable of carbon accounting in transitional (afforestation, reforestation and deforestation) and mixed (e.g. agroforestry) systems.

“The FullCAM model can be run in a spatial mode which will integrate information drawn from the remotely sensed land-cover-change program, productivity surfaces and other ancillary data to perform various accounting routines.”

Norway Lauds Guyana’s Forestry Initiative

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science on September 25, 2009 at 6:51 am

logo…from Kaieteur News Online…

“Guyana is venturing into new territory with its Low Carbon Development Strategy (LCDS) and it is a model-building exercise that will have challenges.

“Addressing a key workshop comprising of local and foreign experts from climate and forestry fields, the official acknowledged that the road will not be easy since “we are in a sense, charting a new course, there is no formula or blue-print to follow, rather we are developing this to suit our needs and conditions….”

“Present in Guyana from overseas for the workshop were representatives from the Clinton Foundation, US Forestry Service, Canadian Forestry Service, Winrock International, Food and Agricultural Organisation, Australia Department of Climate Change, UNDP, World Resources Institute, ESRI and the Meridien Institute.”

ESRI Commits to Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on September 25, 2009 at 6:44 am

President in New York- September 23, 2009“U.S.-based software company, ESRI, regarded as the world leader in GIS (geographic information system) modelling and mapping software and technology, yesterday firmed-up its commitment to Guyana’s Low Carbon Development Strategy by committing to provide the necessary software to this country, as well as the requisite training to Guyanese in the usage of the hi-tech equipment, so that the world can see first hand the imagery of Guyana’s vast tropical rainforest.

“ESRI’s President Mr. Jack Dangermond gave this commitment to President Bharrat Jagdeo during a meeting the two had at the Office of Guyana’s Permanent Mission at the UN, in New York.”

Measuring the Carbon Content of Forests: The Carbon Measurement Collaborative

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on September 24, 2009 at 10:50 am

clinton…from the William J. Clinton Foundation‘s Clinton Climate Initiative…

“Most developing countries lack the technology and tools to track emissions and estimate forests’ carbon absorption and storage abilities. CCI is helping partner countries design and implement their own National Carbon Accounting System (NCAS), giving unprecedented accounting rigor to national forest inventories, as well as individual projects. By working on a national scale, our approach helps to create a globally accepted system for measuring, monitoring, and verifying the carbon content of forests. This in turn supports the development of international agreements on deforestation, and facilitates countries’ access to carbon markets as well as other sources of investment capital.

“To this end, we have convened the Carbon Measurement Collaborative (CMC), a network of leading scientists and technical experts in forest carbon modeling, land use change monitoring and measurement, and satellite imaging. The CMC has developed a prototype, based on a system originally developed in Australia, which currently is being demonstrated. In each partner country, we aim to build the local capacity – the software, computer hardware, and personnel training – to manage the NCAS independently.

“Partners and participants of the CMC include: the Australian government, Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), the world’s leading geographical information systems organization, NASA, and other space agencies through the intergovernmental Group on Earth Observations, the Woods Hole Research Center, the H. John Heinz III Center, World Resources Institute, and the Green Belt Movement. We also are engaging with Google and other important technology providers as well as with end users, including members of the financial investment community and negotiators of the post-Kyoto climate treaty, to determine what the system will be able to deliver for their purposes.”

Scientists Compiled Homogeneous Long-term Ozone Record

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on September 23, 2009 at 8:35 am

…from the European Space Agency…

O3_merged_GOME_SCIA_M“By merging more than a decade of atmospheric data from European satellites, scientists have compiled a homogeneous long-term ozone record that allows them to monitor total ozone trends on a global scale – and the findings look promising.

“Scientists merged monthly total ozone data derived from the vertically downward-looking measurements of the GOME instrument on ESA’s ERS-2 satellite, SCIAMACHY on ESA’s Envisat and GOME-2 on the European Meteorological Satellite Organization’s MetOp-A.”

Redefining the Quaternary

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Science on September 22, 2009 at 10:00 am

sciblog…from ScientificBlogging…

“Committees and organizations usually start for the right reasons but over time they need to become self-perpetuating.

“The International Commission on Stratigraphy (ICS) has managed to milk entire decades out of deciding the boundary dates for the Quaternary Age, which covers both the ice age and moment early man first started to use tools, and it seems they have finally voted on an answer.

“Voting in science?   Indeed, they have formally agreed to move the boundary dates for the prehistoric Quaternary age by 800,000 years, reports the Journal of Quaternary Science.”

We Need a Concerted Global Research Drive into the Potential and Pitfalls of Geoengineering

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Modeling, Science on September 22, 2009 at 7:11 am

ns_logo…from NewScientist…

“The problem with all of these schemes is that we have little clue whether they would work. Some of the best evidence so far comes from the cataclysmic eruption of Mount Pinatubo in 1991, which obligingly conducted a large-scale experiment for us on the effect of injecting sulphur into the upper atmosphere. From a global cooling perspective, the results were encouraging: temperatures sank temporarily by up to 0.5 °C. It remains unclear, however, whether the effects of sulphur on global weather patterns can be predicted or controlled. The dangers include triggering severe regional droughts, and even destroying the ozone layer.

“Faced with such dangers, it would be foolhardy to do anything yet. What we need is a concerted global research drive into the potential and pitfalls of geoengineering. It will take decades to establish which of the possibilities are feasible, effective and safe, what their costs would be, and for whom. Such a programme – encompassing modelling and small-scale experiments, as well as research into the international legal implications of such schemes – need not be expensive, says Steve Rayner of the University of Oxford. It would be small change compared with, say, what is needed to develop alternative energy technologies.”

Satellite Imagery Shows World’s River Deltas Sinking Due to Human Activity

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Imagery on September 21, 2009 at 12:36 pm

Figure 2 Mekong & Myanmar & Pearl…from Futurity.org…

“Of the world’s 33 major deltas, 24 are sinking, in large part due to human activity, and 85 percent experienced severe flooding in recent years, a new study finds.

“The flooding resulted in the temporary submergence of roughly 100,000 square miles of land.  About 500 million people in the world live on river deltas.

“Using satellite data from NASA’s Shuttle Radar Topography Mission, which swept more than 80 percent of Earth’s surface during a 12-day mission of the space shuttle Endeavour in 2000, the  researchers compared the SRTM data with historical maps published between 1760 and 1922.”

Melting Of The Greenland Ice Sheet Mapped

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Science on September 18, 2009 at 6:35 pm

…from Science Daily…

“Will all of the ice on Greenland melt and flow out into the sea, bringing about a colossal rise in ocean levels on Earth, as the global temperature rises? The key concern is how stable the ice cap actually is, and new Danish research from the Niels Bohr Institute at the University of Copenhagen can now show the evolution of the ice sheet 11,700 years back in time – all the way back to the start of our current warm period.  The results are published in the journal Nature.”

Uncertainty Management in Remote Sensing of Climate Data: Workshop Summary

In Books, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Imagery, Science on September 17, 2009 at 7:28 am

0309139589…new from The National Academies Press…

“Great advances have been made in our understanding of the climate system over the past few decades, and remotely sensed data have played a key role in supporting many of these advances. Improvements in satellites and in computational and data-handling techniques have yielded high quality, readily accessible data. However, rapid increases in data volume have also led to large and complex datasets that pose significant challenges in data analysis. Uncertainty characterization is needed for every satellite mission and scientists continue to be challenged by the need to reduce the uncertainty in remotely sensed climate records and projections. The approaches currently used to quantify the uncertainty in remotely sensed data lack an overall mathematically based framework. An additional challenge is characterizing uncertainty in ways that are useful to a broad spectrum of end-users.

“In December 2008, the National Academies held a workshop, summarized in this volume, to survey how statisticians, climate scientists, and remote sensing experts might address the challenges of uncertainty management in remote sensing of climate data. The workshop emphasized raising and discussing issues that could be studied more intently by individual researchers or teams of researchers, and setting the stage for possible future collaborative activities.”

Earth Science Week: October 11-17, 2009

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Education, Environmental Science, Geography on September 16, 2009 at 6:38 am

2009Logo_Small“The American Geological Institute (AGI) invites you to take part in Earth Science Week 2009! Being held October 11-17, Earth Science Week 2009 will encourage people everywhere to explore the natural world and learn about the geosciences. “Understanding Climate,” the theme of Earth Science Week 2009, will promote scientific understanding of a timely, vital topic: Earth’s climate.

“AGI hosts Earth Science Week in cooperation with sponsors as a service to the public and the geoscience community. Each year, local groups, educators, and interested individuals organize celebratory events. Earth Science Week offers opportunities to discover the Earth sciences and engage in responsible stewardship of the Earth. The program is supported by the U.S. Geological Survey, NASA, the National Park Service, the AAPG Foundation, and other geoscience groups.”

Department of Interior Launches Climate Strategy; Geospatial Technology Demonstrates Impacts

In Climate Change, GIS, Visualization on September 15, 2009 at 9:47 am

washingtonpost…from the Washington Post…

“Kit Batten, science adviser to Interior Deputy Secretary David Hayes, led reporters through an elaborate geospatial presentation that mapped everything from the frequency of large hailstorms and windstorms in the United States to the melting of Washington state’s South Cascade Glacier.  “This will help us understand the impacts of climate change, adapt to the impacts of climate change and provide ways to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions as a department,” Batten said. “This work is important to all Americans, not just scientists and land managers.” “

Postgraduate Scholarship in Geobiosphere Science at University of Lund

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Education, Environmental Science, GIS on September 15, 2009 at 6:09 am

lund7Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis
Faculty of Science, Lund University, Sweden

The position will be within the framework of a new research centre at Lund University, LUCCI (Lund University Centre for Studies of Carbon Cycle and Climate Interactions) financed by a long term (10 years) Linnaeus grant by the Swedish Research Council. Research at the Centre spans a broad range of disciplines, e.g., , Physical Geography, , Atmospheric Physics and Chemistry, , Plant Physiology, and Microbiology. There are c. 85 researchers from four different departments within the Faculties of Science and Engineering. Read more about LUCCI at www.lucci.lu.se.

The mechanisms underlying the evolution of Holocene CO2 and CH4 concentrations and climate remain controversial, including whether or not humans have played a discernible role regionally or globally. In this project we aim to improve existing knowledge about human land use over the last 6000 yrs. It will expand a global dataset that was implemented within the LPJ-GUESS modelling framework in order to better assess the role of past human impact on the carbon cycle. The project will link on-going ecosystem modelling work being carried out in Lund with vegetation reconstructions and will involve model applications using LPJ-GUESS.

Candidates should hold a Master of Science degree in Ecology, Geography, Geology, GIS or an environmental science, be interested in data assimilation and have an interest in past human and environmental history or  archaeology.  Some experience in programming or modelling using C++ or a similar language is required.

Excellent written and spoken English is a requirement.

See general study plan at www.naturvetenskap.lu.se/o.o.i.s/3056.

Exploring Climate Change with ArcGIS Explorer

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Visualization on September 14, 2009 at 9:23 am

…from the GIS Education Community Blog…

“One cool thing about being an educator is that there’s no end of subjects that matter. One cool thing about being a geographer is seeing the ways in which all things are related. And one cool thing about being a techie in the 21st century is that there is unlimited opportunity for exploration.

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“In preparation for Earth Science Week, I built a lesson using ArcGIS Explorer, in order to do some quick examination of one indicator of climate change — sea surface temperature. The lesson relies on data in KML format from the NASA Earth Observation web site. You can find the lesson at ArcLessons. Just do a search on ‘Climate’.”

Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Geography, Science on September 14, 2009 at 6:20 am

nsf_ac_ere1_fA new report from the National Science Foundation notes challenges and opportunities in responding to Earth’s rapidly changing environment.

“From Canada to Chile, from Kazakhstan to Kansas, we are witnessing a fast-changing planet. What will it look like in the years, decades and centuries to come?

“How far and in what ways can Earth’s systems be stressed before they reach tipping points, undergoing rapid transitions to new states–with unforeseen consequences?

“So asks a report released today by the National Science Foundation (NSF)’s Advisory Committee for Environmental Research and Education (AC-ERE).

“The report, Transitions and Tipping Points in Complex Environmental Systems, finds both challenges and opportunities in the path to finding answers.”

Global Warming Causes Outbreak of Rare Algae in Caribbean Corals

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on September 14, 2009 at 6:19 am

Scientists take advantage of ‘experiment of nature’ to discover new insights into coral bleaching

“A rare opportunity has allowed a team of scientists to evaluate corals–and the essential, photosynthetic algae that live inside their cells–before, during, and after a period in 2005 when global warming caused sea-surface temperatures in the Caribbean to rise.

“The team, led by Penn State biologist Todd LaJeunesse, found that a rare species of algae that’s tolerant of stressful environmental conditions proliferated in corals at a time when more sensitive algae that usually dwell within the corals were being expelled.

“The results will be published in the online version of the journal Proceedings of the Royal Society B on September 9, 2009.”

Spatial Power: Augmenting Renewable Energy Goals

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies, Spatial Analysis on September 11, 2009 at 2:32 pm

renew…from GeoSpatial Today…

“It will not be an exaggeration to say that our planet is at crossroads.  If humans do not take measures to address the serious environmental issues of earth, the consequences will be unimaginable.  Reduction of greenhouse gas emissions—a smaller carbon footprint is the need of the hour.  Renewable Energy is a viable option to traditional fossil fuel and with GIS technology the path to a greener tomorrow becomes that much easy.”

Getting Your Start In the Growing Carbon Market: GIS Technology Helps Landowners and Foresters

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on September 11, 2009 at 10:15 am

carbon_market…from National Woodlands, Winter 2009…

“Fossil fuel emissions from manufacturing, transportation, and energy production lead to a host of problems including global warming. Forest researchers have developed a means of monitoring and counterbalancing our need for goods and services with nature’s ability to cleanse the atmosphere of harmful emissions to the air. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are very useful tools to measure and better recognize these trade-offs. It also provides a basis for designing land management plans. These systems have the capability to combine many layers of data, model those data in many ways, and generate reports and maps that make it easier to comprehend a complex problem.

“One of the greenhouse gasesthat contribute to global warming is carbon dioxide (CO2). Natural processes that have evolved over eons offset the impact of greenhouse gases with reservoirs such as forest and oceans. In these places photosynthesis removes carbon from the atmosphere. Growing trees convert, or sequester, CO2 from the atmosphere and turn it into wood. Foresters are using geographic information systems (GIS) to analyze forests’ carbon sequestration rates. This technology can also be implemented to reveal opportunities in carbon trading to gain economic advantages from sustainable forest management.”

California Governors’ Global Climate Summit 2: September 30 – October 2, 2009

In Climate Change on September 11, 2009 at 7:16 am

caHyatt Regency Century Plaza Hotel, Los Angeles, California

September 30 – October 2, 2009

Goal
Deepen and broaden cooperative efforts by subnational governments to implement strategies that can immediately grow a green economy, increase the use of sustainable clean energy, reduce dependence on oil and reduce greenhouse gas emissions in advance of, and in support of, the next global agreement on climate change.
Objectives
  • Expand our network of subnational collaboration to stimulate economic growth, create green jobs, increase the use of clean energy while reducing greenhouse gas pollution.
  • Strengthen existing partnerships between progressive states, provinces and regions to exchange best practices, support technology transfers and maximize resources.
  • Highlight the new synergy between federal and subnational governments to demonstrate the important roles each play in growing a green economy and fighting global warming.
  • Demonstrate that subnational leadership is helping to develop sectoral solutions in the global marketplace.
  • Establish stronger links around the world with non-traditional partners in the global effort to grow a green economy, promote clean energy and reduce greenhouse gases (i.e. academics, scientists, investors, business, non-government organizations, etc.).
  • Promote official recognition by the United Nations for subnational leadership and support in the next international climate agreement.

More information

California Climate Adaptation Strategy: Draft for Public Discussion

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on September 10, 2009 at 11:33 am

draft_adapation_strategy_300x378“A first-of-its-kind multi-sector strategy to help guide California’s efforts in adapting to climate change impacts is now available for public comment. In cooperation and partnership with multiple state agencies, the 2009 California Climate Adaptation Strategy Discussion Draft summarizes the best known science on climate change impacts in seven specific sectors and provides recommendations on how to manage against those threats. The release of the draft document sets in motion a 45-day public comment period.

“Led by the California Natural Resources Agency, numerous other state agencies were involved in the creation of discussion draft, including Environmental Protection; Business, Transportation and Housing; Health and Human Services; and the Department of Agriculture. The discussion draft focuses on sectors that include: Public Health; Biodiversity and Habitat; Ocean and Coastal Resources; Water Management; Agriculture; Forestry; and Transportation and Energy Infrastructure. The strategy is in direct response to Gov. Schwarzenegger’s November 2008 Executive Order S-13-08 that specifically asked the Natural Resources Agency to identify how state agencies can respond to rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, sea level rise, and extreme natural events. As data continues to be developed and collected, the state’s adaptation strategy will be updated to reflect current findings.”

Australian Climate and Agriculture Research Portal Unveiled

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography on September 8, 2009 at 1:14 pm

idm…from Image and Data Manager…

“A new on-line portal that brings together research on climate and agriculture by more than 40 Commonwealth and State Government organisations has been launched.”

State by State Climate Projections from the Nature Conservancy

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Statistics on September 1, 2009 at 10:55 am

clim…from Accuweather.com…

“The Nature Conservancy recently released a new analysis of U.S. climate projections through 2100.

“The Nature Conservancy also worked with the University of Washington and the University of Southern Mississippi to develop a new on-line tool that combines the latest scientific data and climate models with GIS, statistical analysis and web-based mapping services to come up with the Climate Wizard.”

Putting Global Warming On Trial?

In Climate Change on August 26, 2009 at 11:04 am

llatimesogoSmall…from the Los Angeles Times…

“The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, trying to ward off potentially sweeping federal emissions regulations, is pushing the Environmental Protection Agency to hold a rare public hearing on the scientific evidence for man-made climate change.

“Chamber officials say it would be “the Scopes monkey trial of the 21st century” — complete with witnesses, cross-examinations and a judge who would rule, essentially, on whether humans are warming the planet to dangerous effect.”

Research Positions Open for Work on Bio-Resource Ecology and Climate Change in the Sikkim, Himalayas

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery, Social Science on August 21, 2009 at 9:43 am

ncsbSeveral long-term research positions are available as part of a Department of Biotechnology (DBT), Government of India, funded project on “Technological Innovations and Ecological Research for the Sustainable Use of Bioresources in Sikkim”. The project is jointly implemented by the National Centre for Biological Sciences (NCBS) (Tata Institute for Fundamental Research, http://www.ncbs.res.in), Bangalore, and the Ashoka Trust for Research in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE) (http://www.atree.org), Bangalore.

We seek qualified, highly motivated candidates for various research and technical positions at the Junior Research Fellow (JRF), Senior Research Fellow (SRF), Post-Doctoral Fellow levels, and in GIS/Remote Sensing.  The research positions can potentially lead to a PhD based at the two institutions. All salaries will be in accordance with DBT specified norms.

The areas of research encompass both basic and applied ecology and include the mapping and monitoring of faunal and floral biodiversity, field and laboratory measurements of biodiversity and ecosystem services (carbon, hydrology, pollination, bio-resources) and their response to climate change, and work on sustainable use of bio-resources by local communities.  Investigators on the project include Dr. Robert John (forest ecology), Dr. Jagdish Krishnaswamy (hydrology & landscape ecology), Dr. Soubadra Devy (pollination ecology) and Mr. Suman Rai (bioresource management) from ATREE, and Dr. Mahesh Sankaran (community ecology), Dr. Ajith Kumar (small-mammal ecology), Dr. Suhel Quader (behavioural and population ecology) and Dr. Uma Ramakrishnan (conservation genetics) from NCBS.

Candidates with backgrounds in life sciences, botany, zoology, geo-sciences, ecology, environmental science, social sciences and remote sensing/GIS and with demonstrated field experience and interest in working in Sikkim and the Northeastern India will be considered.  Depending on the position, laboratory work in Bangalore will be combined with field measurements and observations in Sikkim.  The GIS/RS position will be based in Bangalore. Short-listed candidates will be interviewed by project Scientists in Bangalore or Sikkim.

Interested candidates should send their CV and statement of interest by email to: sikkimdbt@ncbs.res.in.  Applications will be reviewed until suitable candidates are found.
With regards,
Dr. A. Kumaraguru,
Project Post-Doctoral Fellow, Dr. Shivaji Group, Uppal Road, CCMB – LaCONES, Hydrabad.

Best Science Visualization Videos of 2009: Seasonal CO2 Buildup and Reduction in North America

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Modeling, Science, Video, Visualization on August 21, 2009 at 7:49 am

…from Wired Science…

“Some of the most impressive images in science are produced when researchers take numerical data and represent it visually through modeling and computer graphics. The Department of Energy honored 10 of this year’s best scientific visualizations with its annual SciDAC Vis Night awards, at the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing conference (SciDAC) in June. Researchers submitted visualizations to the contest, and program participants voted on the best of the best. From earthquakes to jet flames, this gallery of videos and images show how beautiful (and descriptive) visual data can be.

co2

“Here we see how levels of carbon dioxide build up in North America during the winter months and then drop during the summer. Plants convert carbon dioxide into organic compounds using the energy from sunlight, so changes in the amount of sunlight create seasonal differences in carbon dioxide levels. Data for this video was collected by NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5), which is a system of models designed to collect earth science data for climate and weather prediction.

“Image: DOE SciDAC Program/Jamison Daniel and David Erickson”

Rising Ocean Acidity Erodes Alaska’s Fisheries

In Climate Change, Environmental Science on August 21, 2009 at 7:48 am

sciam…from Scientific American…

“New research from the University of Alaska Fairbanks suggests Arctic oceans are already seeing the effects of acidification, with potentially dire consequences to Alaska’s rich crab and salmon fisheries.”

GIS in Polar Regions

In Books, Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on August 20, 2009 at 10:01 am

polar_bpESRI has released a new GIS Best Practices e-book titled “GIS in Polar Regions.”

Stories in this new e-book include:

  • Amongst the Icebergs, GIS Innovation Aids Antarctic Research
  • Scientific Research Uses GIS in the McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica
  • Access Antarctica: The New Zealand Antarctic GIS
  • Long-Term Environmental Monitoring at McMurdo Station, Antarctica, Supported With GIS
  • Mapping the Ayles Ice Shelf Break
  • Traditional Knowledge Meets New Tools

Read it now

Geography Prof. Receives President’s Leadership Fund Award

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Imagery on August 18, 2009 at 2:18 pm

stow2“Department of Geography professor Douglas Stow, an internationally recognized leader in remote-sensing analysis of terrestrial environments, has been named one of the recipients of The President’s Leadership Fund Awards for Faculty and Staff Excellence.

“Stow says he’ll use his award to seed or augment projects. For example, he plans to process and analyze 10 years of satellite data from the North Slope of Alaska to assess whether snow is melting earlier and shrubs are expanding within Arctic tundra lands.”

Salazar Releases Long-Term Report Detailing Glaciers Shrinking in Alaska and Washington

In Climate Change, Geography, Science on August 17, 2009 at 6:56 am

salazarA report on long-term glacier measurements released today by Secretary of the Interior Ken Salazar shows that glaciers are dramatically changing in mass, length and thickness as a result of climate change.

Over the past 50 years, U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists have monitored the melting of Alaska’s Gulkana and Wolverine Glaciers and Washington’s South Cascade Glacier, yielding the longest such records in North America.

“This report we are releasing today is great example of the science and data our Department has gathered over the past 50 years,” said Secretary Salazar.  “This information is helpful in tackling the effects of climate change and it is exactly the kind of science we need to invest in to measure and mitigate the dangerous impacts of climate change.”

Glacier shrinkage has global impacts, including sea level rise that threatens low-lying and coastal communities. Smaller glaciers will also result in a decrease of water runoff, and impacts are especially important during the dry late summer when other water sources are limited.

“There is no doubt that most mountain glaciers are shrinking worldwide in response to a warming climate. Measuring changes in glacier mass provides direct insight to the link between glaciers and climate, ultimately helping predict glacier response to anticipated climate conditions,” said USGS scientist Edward Josberger.

The three glaciers monitored in this study are known as benchmark glaciers. They are widely spaced, represent different climate regimes, and can be used to understand the thousands of other glaciers in nearby regions.

USGS scientists study glacier behavior during different seasons, including summer melt and winter snow accumulation, as well as their response to both short and long term climate variations. This allows for more detailed insight regarding how and when the climate is changing.

“In addition to these three glaciers, more than 99 percent of America’s thousands of large glaciers have long documented records of an overall shrinkage as climate warms,” said USGS scientist Bruce Molnia. “Many people are surprised to learn that a few glaciers are thickening and advancing. These glaciers are responding to unusual and unique local conditions, including having large, high elevation areas where snow accumulates. Except for these anomalous few , most of America’s glaciers are shrinking and these exceptions emphasize how natural variability is an inherent part of a complex Earth system.”

You can view a video of South Cascade Glacier aerial photos from 1928 to 2006 at the USGS Washington Water Science Center Web site.

For more information on this study of glacier change in Washington and Alaska, visit Fact Sheet 2009-3046, Fifty-Year Record of Glacier Change Reveals Shifting Climate in the Pacific Northwest and Alaska, USA.

More information about the USGS Benchmark Glacier Program can be found online.

Planet Action Grants: Submit your Project by September 30, 2009

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Grants, Imagery on August 14, 2009 at 10:22 am

planetactionlogoPlanet Action provides satellite imagery, geographic information and technology support to local projects that investigate and assess climate change issues focusing on human issues, drought & desertification, water resources, forestry, biodiversity, oceans, ice, and awareness.

This year, Planet Action will support additional projects while following up on current projects and their results on the ground.

Submit your project by September 30, 2009.

Eligibility and Selection Criteria

Planet Action supports projects involved at least in one of the following domains:

  • Awareness
  • Biodiversity & Conservation
  • Drought & Desertification
  • Human Issues
  • Forest & Deforestation
  • Ice & Snow
  • Oceans & Coastlines
  • Water Resources

To be eligible for support from Planet Action, projects must:

  • Deal with a climate change related issue and propose a course of actions.
  • Deal with at least one of the Planet Action “domains”.
  • Have a member of the organization who resides in the country where the project takes place or at least during the duration of the projects
  • Be proposed by a non-profit organization such as NGO’s, a public laboratory or a university.
  • Confirm that the project has no commercial, religious or ideological content or objective.

More information

Sick Fish May Get Sicker: Climate Change and Other Stresses Expected to Affect Entire Populations of Fish

In Climate Change, Geography, Science on August 14, 2009 at 7:45 am

Entire populations of North American fish already  are being affected by several emerging diseases, a problem that threatens to increase in the future with climate change and other stresses on aquatic ecosystems, according to a noted U.S. Geological Survey researcher giving an invited talk on this subject today at the Wildlife Disease Association conference in Blaine, Wash.

“A generation ago, we couldn’t have imaged the explosive growth in disease issues facing many of our wild fish populations,” said Dr. Jim Winton, a fish disease specialist at the USGS Western Fisheries Research Center.  “Most fish health research at that time was directed toward diseases of farmed fish.”

In contrast, said Winton, recent studies in natural aquatic systems have revealed that, in addition to being a cause of natural death, infectious and parasitic fish diseases can produce significantly greater mortality in altered habitats leading to population fluctuations, extinction of endangered fish, reduced overall health and increased susceptibility to predation.

In addition, said Winton, populations of certain fish species have suffered catastrophic losses after non-native diseases were first introduced into a water body. Examples include whirling disease in the intermountain west and the recent introduction of viral hemorrhagic septicemia in the Great Lakes.

“The scientific community is increasingly concerned that global trade, extensive habitat alteration, accumulations of contaminants and other human-caused stresses stressors, including climate change, will affect the distribution or severity of fish diseases and contribute to increasing population-scale losses in these important natural resources,” Winton said.

Disease is often ignored as a factor affecting wild populations of fish and wildlife because the effects are difficult to observe and quantify, noted Winton. But as cold-blooded animals, fish are highly dependent on environmental conditions, especially temperature, to help maintain critical physiological processes such as immune function that can affect whether a fish gets a disease or parasite, how it is affected by it, and how the disease progresses.

In particular, said Winton, some fish – such as salmon, trout and muskellunge – have a fairly narrow range of water temperatures they can live in.  “If that temperature is exceeded over a period of time, not only may die-offs occur, but also, the increased stress and altered immune function will lead to greater levels of infectious or parasitic diseases which is why global warming is of particular concern.

Winton said that increased scientific recognition of fish diseases as a potential population-limiting factor in wild populations of fish is partly the result of the emergence of high-profile diseases such as whirling disease in wild-spawning rainbow trout in the Rocky Mountain West, viral hemorrhagic septicemia in the North Pacific Ocean and the Great Lakes, and a fungal-like disease, ichthyophoniasis, in adult Chinook salmon in the Yukon River.

The 58th annual meeting of the Wildlife Disease Association (WDA) was held August 2-7, 2009, in Blaine, Wash. The theme was Wildlife Health from Land to Sea: Impacts of a Changing World. This press release was based on a paper being presented on Aug. 3 at the conference  by USGS scientist Dr. Jim Winton,  “The ecology of emerging diseases among populations of wild fish.”

Using GIS to Study Greenroof Capacity

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on August 13, 2009 at 7:29 am

…from ScienceDaily…

[T]he plants on greenroofs can absorb … water – “like a sponge being saturated,” says Olyssa Starry, a graduate student at the University of Maryland at Baltimore County. Starry studied a greenroof atop a Baltimore building in comparison to a similar building without a greenroof to determine how well the roof would absorb water from frequent storms. By measuring water flowing out of building downspouts, she found that the greenroof retained from 30 to 75 percent of water from storms, compared to a negligible amount retained by the building with no greenroof.

Although her results are preliminary, Starry thinks that cities can reap benefits from making greenroofs a part of their building requirements, as cities like Toronto and Berlin have recently done. Using GIS satellite imagery, she estimated the number and area of buildings that could hold greenroofs within one watershed in the Baltimore area. If all these roofs were greened, she says, the city could save the watershed 8 million gallons of water per year, or about 10 percent of its yearly water loss.

Letter Report on the Orbiting Carbon Observatory

In Books, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on August 12, 2009 at 1:12 pm

…from the Committee on Methods for Estimating Greenhouse Gas Emissions; National Research Council…

A National Research Council committee is conducting a study on how well greenhouse gas emissions can be measured for treaty monitoring and verification. The committee’s analysis suggests that NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO), which failed on launch in February 2009, would have provided proof of concept for spaceborne technologies to monitor greenhouse gas emissions, as well as baseline emissions data. This letter focuses on the capabilities of an OCO and currently deployed satellites that measure atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) and their potential role in monitoring and verifying a greenhouse gas treaty.

Large Trees Declining in Yosemite

In Climate Change, Geography, Science on August 12, 2009 at 8:33 am

Large trees have declined in Yosemite National Park during the 20th century, and warmer climate conditions may play a role.

The number of large-diameter trees in the park declined 24 percent between the 1930s and 1990s. U.S. Geological Survey and University of Washington scientists compared the earliest records of large-diameter trees densities from 1932–1936 to the most recent records from 1988–1999.

A decline in large trees means habitat loss and possible reduction in species such as spotted owls, mosses, orchids and fishers (a carnivore related to weasels). Fewer new trees will grow in the landscape because large trees are a seed source for the surrounding landscape. Large-diameter trees generally resist fire more than small-diameter trees, so fewer large trees could also slow forest regeneration after fires.

“Although this study did not investigate the causes of decline, climate change is a likely contributor to these events and should be taken into consideration,” said USGS scientist emeritus Jan van Wagtendonk. “Warmer conditions increase the length of the summer dry season and decrease the snowpack that provides much of the water for the growing season. A longer summer dry season can also reduce tree growth and vigor, and can reduce trees’ ability to resist insects and pathogens.”

Scientists also found a shift to fire-intolerant trees in some forests that had not experienced fires for nearly a century. In these areas, trees changed from fire-tolerant ponderosa pines to fire-intolerant white fir and incense cedar. In burned areas, however, pines remained dominant.

“We should be aware that more frequent and severe wildfires are possible in Yosemite because of the recent shift to fire-intolerant trees in unburned areas and warmer climates bring drier conditions,” said van Wagtendonk.

This research was published in Forest Ecology and Management and can be found online (PDF).

Tracking Deforestation, One Regression at a Time

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Statistics, Video on August 11, 2009 at 7:10 am

“FORMA = Forest Monitoring for Action: Tracking Deforestation, One Regression at a Time” demonstrates an inventive application based on ESRI Web and mobile technology that tracks deforestation in the tropics. This was presented during the Lightning Talks session at the 2009 ESRI International User Conference.

CCIP Call for Participation and FOSS4G Early Registration Deadlines Approach

In Climate Change, Conferences, Environmental Science, GIS on August 10, 2009 at 10:39 am

fosThe Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc. (OGC), the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) and the Open Source Geospatial Foundation (OSGeo) are conducting a Climate Challenge Integration Plugfest (CCIP) to be launched at the FOSS4G (Free, Open Source Software for Geomatics) Conference in Sydney, Australia, 20-23 October, 2009 (http://2009.foss4g.org).

CCIP Participants are invited to deploy services that implement OGC standards, or clients for such services, that support the exploration of climate change from a quantitative perspective, with an eye towards a standards framework for collaborative science.

The CCIP is a prime opportunity for vendors, users, and other interested parties to mutually refine services, interfaces and protocols in the context of a hands-on engineering experience expected to shape the future of geospatial and imagery-related Web Services software development and Web publication of scientific geospatial data. Participation is encouraged by commercial entities as well as free and open source projects.

Companies or individuals interested in participating should respond to the CCIP Call for Participation at http://external.opengis.org/twiki_public/bin/view/ClimateChallenge2009/CcipCFP by August 10, 2009.

A comprehensive list of presentations has been announced for the international FOSS4G conference. Early Bird registration closes on 7 August, 2009. See details at http://wiki.osgeo.org/wiki/FOSS4G_2009_Press_Release_21 .

The OGC (http://www.opengeospatial.org/) is an international consortium of more than 380 companies, government agencies, research organizations, and universities participating in a consensus process to develop publicly available geospatial standards. OpenGIS Standards support interoperable solutions that “geo-enable” the Web, wireless and location-based services, and mainstream IT.

The Open Source Geospatial Foundation (OSGeo) (http://osgeo.org) has been created to support and build the highest-quality open source geospatial software. The foundation’s goal is to encourage the use and collaborative development of community-led projects, data development and education.

Open Geospatial Consortium, Inc
Sam Bacharach, +1-703-352-3938
Executive Director, Outreach and Community Adoption
sbacharach@opengeospatial.org

2009 ESRI User Conference Proceedings Now Online

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, GIScience, Geography, Imagery, Modeling, Science, Social Science, Spatial Analysis, Statistics, Temporal Analysis on July 24, 2009 at 6:49 pm

GIS Helps Evaluate Soil’s Ability to Retain Earth’s Carbon

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Spatial Analysis on July 23, 2009 at 5:01 pm

…from Environmental Expert…

“The study evaluated AAAWD of Ca2+ from 1994 to 2003 within the continental United States by soil order, using spatial analysis of Ca2+ wet deposition data obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program (NADP) and the State Soil Geographic (STATSGO) Database from the Natural Resources Conservation Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Using geographic information system (GIS) software, spatial data layers were developed and averaged to create a final Ca2+ wet deposition map layer. The total Ca2+ wet deposition per soil order (in kg) was then calculated by combining the final average Ca2+ wet deposition map layer with the generalized soil order data layer.”

Scientific Value of Arctic Sea Ice Imagery Derived Products

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Imagery, Science on July 23, 2009 at 7:52 am

0309137632A new report authored by Committee on the Scientific Value of Arctic Sea Ice Imagery Derived Products; Committee on Climate, Energy, and National Security; National Research Council.

“During the 1990s, a government program brought together environmental scientists and members of the intelligence community to consider how classified assets and data could be applied to further the understanding of environmental change. As part of the Medea program, collection of overhead classified imagery of sea ice at four sites around the Arctic basin was initiated in 1999, and two additional sites were added in 2005. Collection of images during the summer months at these six locations has continued until the present day. Several hundred unclassified images with a nominal resolution of 1 meter have been derived from the classified images collected at the 6 Arctic sites.

“To assist in the process of making the unclassified derived imagery more widely useful, the National Research Council reviewed the derived images and considered their potential uses for scientific research. In this book, we explore the importance of sea ice in the Arctic and illustrate the types of information–often unique in its detail–that the derived images could contribute to the scientific discussion.”

Citizen Science Helps Build a Case for Climate Action

In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on July 15, 2009 at 9:40 am

audWilliam B. Monahan, Senior GIS Scientist with Audubon California, has written an essay on (published at Grist.org) 0n how data collected by volunteer scientists is helping to build a case for climate action.

“They traipse through forest, grass and wetland, through mud, rain and even snow. They carry binoculars and take careful notes of everything they see.

“These are the folks—thousands of dedicated bird watchers—that for more than 100 years have been taking part in the Audubon Christmas Bird Count, documenting fluctuations in bird populations the old-fashioned way: counting birds one by one, year after year.

“Old fashioned as it is, this data has proven invaluable for researchers through several generations. Now, we at Audubon California have found a way to use the work of these volunteers to shed new light on climate change, one of the most challenging issues for bird conservation today.”

Explosive Growth of Life Fueled by Early Greening of Earth

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Science on July 15, 2009 at 8:16 am

asu“While scientists can pinpoint this pivotal period as leading to life as we know it today, it is not completely understood what caused the Cambrian explosion of life. Now, researchers led by Arizona State University geologist L. Paul Knauth believe they have found the trigger for the Cambrian explosion.”

New Zealand Enlists GIS to Monitor Greenhouse Gas

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies, Science on July 6, 2009 at 11:45 am

Carbon Accounting Program Using Geospatial Technology to Meet Kyoto Reporting Requirements

The New Zealand Ministry for the Environment is implementing geographic information system (GIS) software from ESRI to analyze, measure, and report greenhouse gas emissions and land-use change. GIS will be used to comply with the reporting requirements of the Kyoto Protocol in an effort to reduce greenhouse gases that contribute to Earth’s climate changes.

The Land Use and Carbon Analysis System (LUCAS) is built on a geospatial system developed by New Zealand-based ESRI business partner Explorer Graphics Ltd. (EGL). The system supports complex carbon sequestration calculations using validated and quantified land use and land-use change information.

Nations that are aligned with the Kyoto Protocol have agreed to take steps to reduce emission activities. The objective of the protocol is for industrialized countries to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 5 percent below 1990 levels before 2012. In alliance with the agreement, New Zealand is required to report on greenhouse gas emissions and removals arising from land use, land-use change, and forestry activities. LUCAS will enable New Zealand to meet its Kyoto Protocol reporting requirements for carbon stock and carbon stock change including the annual National Inventory Report that can be used for reporting to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

LUCAS manager Steve Botica said that the development of a geospatial solution was one of the key components of LUCAS, enabling the assessment of spatial data as part of the measurement and monitoring of the carbon stocks of New Zealand’s forests and soils. “In particular, we needed to analyze mapped land use at the key reference points for the first Kyoto commitment period—1990, 2008, and 2012.”

Built on ESRI’s ArcGIS software, LUCAS combines carbon assessment calculations with core geospatial change analysis and forest plot sampling to produce the carbon-per-hectare report for Kyoto land-use classes. David Pimblott, EGL’s managing director, said, “We have been working with ministry staff to develop various geospatial technology solutions. These will enable them to store and analyze satellite data and aerial photography to map changes in land use since 1990.”

Forests break down carbon dioxide and store, or sequester, the carbon during the forest’s natural processes of photosynthesis and respiration. This process is a natural means to counter increasing levels of carbon dioxide that affect climate change. ArcGIS supports scientific methods for calculating carbon sequestration by using validated and qualified land-use data. It then shows land-use change information from year to year.

Science Projects to Receive Free Satellite Imagery

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Imagery, Science on July 2, 2009 at 1:04 pm

glglaciercropDMCii announced the selection of five science projects that will receive free satellite imagery from the DMC satellite constellation.

Greenland GlacierIn December 2008, scientists were invited to compete for the opportunity to use the DMC multi-spectral satellite image data in their research projects.

Applications were judged on their contribution to international environmental research by a panel of scientists chaired by Professor Alan O’Neill, Director of the UK’s National Centre for Earth Observation (NCEO) the panel included Dr Arwyn Davies, Head of Earth Observation at the British National Space Centre (BSNC), Dr Paul Aplin (Chairman of RSPSoc and Associate Professor Nottingham University), Dr Steve Mackin, Chief Scientist DMCii and David Hodgson, Managing Director DMCii.

The winning projects cover a wide range of important topics: from monitoring changes in the Greenland Ice Sheet and the UK wetlands and forests, to pioneering new techniques for integrating satellite Earth observations with computer models to improve measurements of how the Earth’s vegetation ‘breathes’ carbon dioxide. Congratulations to the following winning science teams:

  • Monitoring Dynamic Change in the Greenland Ice Sheet
    A. Luckman (Swansea University)
  • Testing Data Assimilation Schemes
    JJ Settle (University of Reading), P North (University of Swansea), T Quaife (University College London)
  • Assessing Seasonal Water and Restoration Status of Wetland Habitats
    Dr G Smith (Specto Natura Ltd), Dr F Hughes & Dr P Stroh (Anglia Ruskin University), Dr P Aplin (University of Nottingham)
  • Validation of MODIS NPP (Net Primary Productivity) Product for Tropical Areas
    Dr M Cutler (University of Dundee), Prof A Cracknell, Assoc Prof AL Ibrahim, Dr K Haron
  • Monitoring of Vegetation Phenological Change and Health
    Dr R Guisa (University of Surrey), Dr R Pitman (Centre for Forestry & Climate Change (FR))

Building the Perfect Climate Model

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Modeling on July 2, 2009 at 7:29 am

edge…from Edge…

“There is a simple way to produce a perfect model of our climate that will predict the weather with 100% accuracy. First, start with a universe that is exactly like ours; then wait 13 billion years.

“But if you want something useful right now, if you want to construct a means of taking the knowledge that we have and use it to predict future climate, you build computer simulations. Your models are messy, complicated, in constant need of fine tuning, exacting and inexact at the same time. You’re using the past to predict the future, extrapolating the very complicated from the very simple, and relying on an ever-changing data stream to inform the outcome.”

Atmospheric Data Model for ArcGIS

In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Science, GIS, Science on June 30, 2009 at 8:03 am

atmodmThe Atmospheric data model initiative is establishing a working dialog between ESRI and the atmospheric sciences community regarding data representation issues. This helps serve to address the needs of the atmospheric community for ESRI software development. The management of temporal data and raster data support are two areas of focus with this initiative.

Collaboration with NCAR/UCAR, NASA JPL, and Raytheon has helped to identify the need for direct read of CF compliant netCDF data. The functionality is in development for the direct read and write of NetCDF as feature, raster, and tabular data. This will also be useful to perform analysis using standard feature, raster, and table Geoprocessing model builder tools for netCDF data.

The initial task in developing an Atmospheric Data Model is to identify the purpose and scope of the final design. A questionnaire will be used as the basis for a Conceptual Framework Document to shape the design of the Atmospheric data model, for the query, analysis, storage, and display of Atmospheric data in a GIS format.

User Forums

Visit the ESRI data model discussion forum to share your ideas, thoughts, and questions with other users.

Downloads – Case Studies

These Case Studies are a good starting point to learn about best practices for this discipline. These project examples include sample geodatabases, map documents, and documentation.

Downloads – Design Templates

The Design Templates are the result of the community-based design process. The general concepts and terms for this discipline are described here. Tools and examples to create a template data model are also included for advanced users.

Downloads – Tools

These tools have been developed together with the data models to provide new ways to leverage each industry specific model. They are designed to work with the data model templates and case studies, and can be used with the model, or with other data sets. These tools can be found on ArcScripts, and are not supported ESRI software.

User Community

Visit the website for the Atmospheric Special Interest group. We hold annual user group and data model meetings in conjunction with the ESRI User Conference in San Diego and the annual American Meteorological Society meetings.

Concise Agendas Available for Natural Resources and Environment Tracks at 2009 ESRI User Confernece

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on June 30, 2009 at 7:11 am

uc20091The ESRI UC features many hundred of presentations and can be quite overwhelming. These concise agendas will help you find your way to sessions and events related to your specific interests.

GIS and Climate Change Resources at the 2009 ESRI User Conference

In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, GIS on June 29, 2009 at 9:35 am

uc20091ESRI continues to bring focus to climate change concerns and responses. On opening day, renowned biologist Willie Smits will present to users his organization’s efforts for rebuilding forest habitats. In addition, ESRI is sponsoring a Climate Change GIS Showcase along with a three day, global climate change track that offers sessions about policy, monitoring carbon, conservation efforts, and alternative energy sources and technologies. Scientific papers include Carbon Profiles and Alternative Energy and a panel discussion GIS and Renewable Energy. Panel discussions offered by Planet Action will emphasize the value of SPOT imagery data to monitor land use change. People working at the local and national levels will present papers about their community programs in tracks called GIS and Policy Making and  Local Climate Action Plans.

Distinguished speakers joining the climate change conversation include Dr. D. James Baker, Director of the Global Carbon Measurement Program; Dr. Gary Richards from the Australian Department of Climate Change; and Jim Geringer, former governor of Wyoming, who now serves on the National Academy of Sciences Committee of America’s Climate Choices.

Spatial Analysis of Trends in Extreme Precipitation Events in High-Resolution Climate Model Results and Observations for Germany

In Climate Change, Modeling, Spatial Analysis, Statistics on June 29, 2009 at 7:16 am

jgrBy L. Tomassini and D. Jacob, Regional Climate Modeling, Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany.

From J. Geophys. Res., 114.

A statistical extreme value analysis is applied to very high-resolution climate model results and observations encompassing the area of Germany. Two control runs representing the current climate, as well as three scenario simulations of the regional climate model REMO, are investigated. The control runs were compared against high-resolution observations. The analysis is divided into two main parts: first trends in extreme quantiles of daily precipitation totals are estimated in a station-by-station analysis. In the second part, the spatial characteristics of the estimated trends in heavy rainfall are investigated over the area of Germany by fitting a parametric geostatistical model to these trends. The rule of thumb of estimating trends in extreme quantiles of heavy precipitation based on the Clausius-Clapeyron relation, about 6.5% per 1°C temperature increase, has been roughly confirmed for Germany by our study with respect to the observations, but the climate model computes weaker trends. In the control simulations, the climate model tends to underestimate trends in heavy rainfall compared to observations. In the scenario simulations, positive trends prevail (as in the observations). They are, however, relatively small when set in relation to the uncertainties. The trends become significantly positive to a larger spatial extent only in the A2 scenario simulation. The estimated shape of the extreme value distributions does not change significantly in the scenario simulations compared to the climate model control runs. The parameter estimates for the geostatistical model for the trends in extreme quantiles of daily precipitation sums are rather uncertain. The most striking feature of the analysis is a reduction of the spatial variance of the trends over the considered area of Germany in the scenario simulations compared to observations and, in particular, the climate model control runs.

Spatial Analysis of Plague in California: Niche Modeling Predictions of the Current Distribution and Potential Response to Climate Change

In Climate Change, GIS, Modeling, Science, Spatial Analysis on June 29, 2009 at 7:03 am

plagueBy Ashley Holt, Daniel Salkeld, Curtis Fritz, James Tucker, and Peng Gong.

From the International Journal of Health Geographics, 2009, 8:38.

Background
Plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is a public and wildlife health concern in California and the western United States. This study explores the spatial characteristics of positive plague samples in California and tests Maxent, a machine-learning method that can be used to develop niche-based models from presence-only data, for mapping the potential distribution of plague foci. Maxent models were constructed using geocoded seroprevalence data from surveillance of California ground squirrels (Spermophilus beecheyi) as case points and Worldclim bioclimatic data as predictor variables, and compared and validated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) statistics. Additionally, model results were compared to locations of positive and negative coyote (Canis latrans) samples, in order to determine the correlation between Maxent model predictions and areas of plague risk as determined via wild carnivore surveillance.

Results
Models of plague activity in California ground squirrels, based on recent climate conditions, accurately identified case locations (AUC of 0.913 to 0.948) and were significantly correlated with coyote samples. The final models were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios. These models suggest that by 2050, climate conditions may reduce plague risk in the southern parts of California and increase risk along the northern coast and Sierras.

Conclusions
Because different modeling approaches can yield substantially different results, care should be taken when interpreting future model predictions. Nonetheless, niche modeling can be a useful tool for exploring and mapping the potential response of plague activity to climate change. The final models in this study were used to identify potential plague risk areas based on an ensemble of six future climate scenarios, which can help public managers decide where to allocate surveillance resources. In addition, Maxent model results were significantly correlated with coyote samples, indicating that carnivore surveillance programs will continue to be important for tracking the response of plague to future climate conditions.

Carbon Footprint Data Model for ArcGIS

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS on June 25, 2009 at 7:49 am

carbondmThe purpose of the Carbon Footprint data model is to provide a basic starter template to empower GIS users to tackle the basic problems of greenhouse gases that affect Global Climate Change. The data model suggests the feature classes that a GIS manager would build to support issues related to carbon dioxide production and sequestration.

The intent of the model is to be a starting point that can be extended to meet the needs of those whose task is to act on this problem. The model is the starting point for analysis, visualization, tracking change over time and auditing. Consider this as the Mission Data Set to locally address global climate change.

A key part is developing a Carbon Fabric – layers of sources and sinks that aggregate information from more detailed datasets.

This is an early draft of a data model and we are actively looking for projects to collaborate with to establish best practices. Please contact Steve Grise (sgrise@esri.com) for more information.

GIS Helps Measure Carbon Footprints in U.S. Forests

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies, Science on June 22, 2009 at 8:08 am

logo_NBCD…from V1 Magazine…

“How do we retrace our ecological footprints? Where will the footprints lead? Scientists at the Woods Hole Research Center (WHRC) are tracking carbon footprints across the globe starting with U.S. forests. One ongoing study, using geographic information system (GIS) technology, is measuring the carbon-rich biomass in heavily wooded areas to indicate the effect that deforestation and land use have on rising carbon levels in our atmosphere.

“The National Biomass and Carbon Dataset for the year 2000 (NBCD2000) will serve as a baseline for quantifying carbon stock in U.S. forests. The information can then be used to improve current methods of assessing carbon flux between forests and the atmosphere. To establish the baseline, researchers fed many layers of data into the GIS including NASA satellite imagery, topographic survey data, land use/land cover information, and extensive forest inventory data collected by the USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) program.”

Drought Tool Expands to 48 States

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIScience, Imagery, Science on June 19, 2009 at 7:02 am

VegDRIA seven-year research effort achieved a milestone last month when the Vegetation Drought Response Index expanded across the 48 states of the continental United States. VegDRI maps, produced every two weeks, combine satellite-based observations of vegetation conditions with climate and biosphysical information to map drought’s effect on vegetation at a one-kilometer resolution.

“VegDRI provides a regional overview of how rangeland and crops are doing,” said Brian Wardlow, the GIScience program area leader at the National Drought Mitigation Center, which is headquartered at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln. “For anyone monitoring agricultural conditions, particularly ranching, or with interests in natural resource management, this is an invaluable addition to their tool set.”

Read more

GEOSS GEO Portal: Global Doorway to Understanding the Earth

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science on June 18, 2009 at 2:40 pm

geop12p3“…the GEOSS GEO Portal provides scientists with easy access to a wealth of earth observation data and Web mapping services. It is a global doorway to increasing our understanding of the earth and helping participants move from principles to action.”

DRAGON Asia Summit Stresses Visualization

In Climate Change, Conferences, Environmental Science, Geography, Science, Visualization on June 12, 2009 at 8:11 pm

usgsnwrcThe DRAGON (Delta Research and Global Observation Network) Asia Summit on June 22-25 in Siem Reap, Cambodia, “will forge new global partnerships to develop the science needed to inform decision making in the Mekong, Mississippi, and other large river and delta systems around the world.

“The fundamental principle is to make scientific information understandable, to make our results compelling.”

CITYgreen Calculates Environmental Benefits of Trees and Green Space

In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies on June 10, 2009 at 10:57 am

cgreen_screenshotCITYgreen software from American Forests performs complex analysis of ecosystem services and creates easy-to-understand reports. The software calculates dollar benefits for the services provided by trees and other green space in your specific area. CITYgreen is engineered as an extension to the ESRI’s ArcGIS software.

CITYgreen analyzes the ecological and economic benefits of tree canopy and other green space. The analysis is based on a landcover dataset that is provided by the user. The source of the landcover dataset can be derived from a variety of sources, such as aerial photography or satellite imagery. CITYgreen is useful for analyzing stormwater runoff, air pollution removal, carbon storage and sequestration, and landcover breakdown, and can also be used to perform alternate scenario modeling.

Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate

In Climate Change, Science on June 10, 2009 at 8:26 am

0309137373“Everyone–government agencies, private organizations, and individuals–is facing a changing climate: an environment in which it is no longer prudent to follow routines based on past climatic averages. State and local agencies in particular, as well as the federal government, need to consider what they will have to do differently if the 100-year flood arrives every decade or so, if the protected areas for threatened species are no longer habitable, or if a region can expect more frequent and more severe wildfires, hurricanes, droughts, water shortages, or other extreme environmental events. Both conceptually and practically, people and organizations will have to adjust what may be life-long assumptions to meet the potential consequences of climate change. How and where should bridges be built? What zoning rules may need to be changed? How can targets for reduced carbon emissions be met? These and myriad other questions will need to be answered in the coming years and decades.

“Informing Decisions in a Changing Climate examines the growing need for climate-related decision support–that is, organized efforts to produce, disseminate, and facilitate the use of data and information in order to improve the quality and efficacy of climate-related decisions. Drawing on evidence from past efforts to organize science for improved decision making, it develops guidance for government agencies and other institutions that will provide or use information for coping with climate change. This volume provides critical analysis of interest to agencies at every level, as well as private organizations that will have to cope with the world’s changing climate.”

GIS Helps Teach Climate Information to Public Health Decision Makers

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on June 5, 2009 at 10:57 am

overview_1…from AlertNet…

“Starting this week, 12 public-health professionals and climate scientists from ten countries are visiting Columbia University’s Lamont campus, where the International Research Institute for Climate and Society is based, to learn how to use climate information to make better decisions for health-care planning and disease prevention. They’re taking part in the second Summer Institute on Climate Information for Public Health, organized by IRI, the Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN) and the Mailman School of Public Health.

“The students face an intense daily schedule, packed with lectures and exercise sessions meant to introduce them to computational tools that integrate epidemiological data with the wide variety of available climate, population and environmental data.

“For example, students will learn the fundamentals of using geographic-information-systems (GIS) to conduct spatial analysis. ‘GIS allows us to see where people live, the social, economic and physical conditions they confront and their level of exposure to potential health threats,’ says instructor, associate director of CIESIN’s geospatial applications division. ‘Using a GIS-based model, we can look at the coincidence of regions at high risk of malaria and areas of high population density to design a more effective control program for example,’ he says.”

GIS and Global Design

In Climate Change, Design, Earth Systems Management, Environmental Science, GIS, Science, Spatial Analysis on June 4, 2009 at 7:13 am

“Man may perish by his own explosive and insidious inventions.  For an adjustment to them he leaves himself precious little time, and progressively less as his technological wizardry runs wild and rushes on.  If he is to survive at all, it cannot be through slow adjustment.  It will have to be through design more subtly considered and circumspect, through more cautious planning in advance.”

Richard Neutra, 1954

The current anthropogenic domination of earth systems cannot be overstated.  Once we as a species acknowledge our moral and environmental imperative to carefully and thoughtfully manage our planet for the health of all component earth systems and grapple with the ethical issues of geoengineering, we can move away from accidental, poorly-planned geoengineering and into an era of conscious geodesign at a global scale.  A GIS-based framework offers the best approach for understanding and addressing the breadth of climate change science issues in a holistic manner.  Aggregating complex physical, biological, and social data and models within a unified framework will give us single view of the whole earth system and provide us with the tools to manage—and ultimately design—our future in the most effective, efficient, and morally defensible way.

Landscape architecture and urban and regional planning have taught us to analyze alternative development ideas in a broad environmental context, and GIS tools were a natural outgrowth of this technique; but to date these design concepts have yet to be fully applied at a truly global scale to help us to understand and respond to climate change challenges.

Mature Concepts, New Focus

“Design is the first signal of human intention … What is our intention as a species and how do we go about thinking about that?”

William McDonough, 2009

Michael Batty states that “(a) narrow but suitable definition of design as it pertains to geographic systems … is the process of generating physical artefacts which meet ‘agreed’ human (social and economic) goals pertaining to specific points or periods in time and space.”  He goes on to describe the design process as increasingly evolutionary, where human-initiated or -influenced systems grow and evolve in a manner and fashion similar to biological systems.  This growth and evolution is in response to ever-changing environments and their associated assemblages of constraints.

Reasoned design and management in the age of the anthropogenic earth is our moral imperative, but the biggest obstacle to our success is that we are not yet set up to work, or even think, in this way.  Brad Allenby notes that “(w)e lack solid data and analytical frameworks to make assertions about the costs, benefits, and normative assessments of different . . . practices”. GIS and the emerging field of geodesign are critical to the success of approaches such as earth systems management and engineering (ESEM) and other logical and rational models for dealing with the environmental and planning problems of ours and future generations.

Design considering place was at the core of Ian McHarg’s beliefs, and it is the basis for current research and development efforts in the emerging field of geodesign.  Geodesign borrows concepts from landscape architecture, environmental studies, geography, planning, sustainability, and integrative studies. Much like GIS and environmental planning before it, geodesign takes an interdisciplinary, synergistic approach to solving critical problems and optimizing location, orientation, and features of projects at local, regional, and global scales.

Geodesign may be a new term to some people, but GIS and design have a long history together.  And whether they realize it or not, over the last 40 years, many GIS professionals have been involved in geodesign projects primarily in the fields of environmental, regional, and urban planning.  To a certain extent, this is already done today by numerous GIS practitioners in fields like urban and regional planning and environmental management.  But geodesign makes this easier by making it an integral part of the workflow, both shortening the cycle time of the design process and improving the quality of the results.   With a debt of gratitude to Steinitz, the geodesign framework also lets us design and test various alternatives, helping us make the most educated and informed decisions about the best possible future.

When we talk of designing our future, we believe that combining the wealth of data available about our world with sophisticated analysis and management tools is the prescription for understanding and shaping the future of our planet—an anthropogenic future where advances in human society, technology, etc., are carefully designed in close collaboration with nature, resulting in the best of possible future worlds.  Moving forward, there are some guidelines we can follow to help leverage geospatial technologies in support of global design.

Guidelines for Global Design

“To live in a world subject to purposeful, planetwide change will not, I think, be quite the same as living in one being messed up by accident.  Unless geoengineering fails catastrophically … the relationship between people and their environment will have changed profoundly.”

Oliver Morton, 2009

A geodesign framework will provide a robust set of tools for design professionals to support the design of alternate future for our earth and its systems.  And the need for such tools has never been greater. We live in an ever more complex world, where our impact on the natural environment is massive and can no longer be ignored. People are starting to recognize the importance Richard Neutra placed on the inseparable relationship between humans and nature and to realize Ian McHarg’s vision of design with nature, and they want to act. Matt Ball notes that “(t)here is now a growing interest in combining design functionality with the broader geographical context that geospatial tools offer in order to engage more deeply in land-use planning.”

  1. Establish Geodesign as a Field of Study. To what extent are the fundamental spatial concepts that lie behind GIS relevant in design? To what extent can the fundamental spatial concepts of design be addressed with GIS? Is it possible to devise a curriculum to develop spatial thinking in both GIS and design? To begin developing answers to such questions, a specialist meeting on spatial concepts in GIS and design was held December 15–16, 2008, in Santa Barbara, California. The purpose of the meeting was to discuss the potential for integrating design more fully into GIS, as well as the development of curriculum in spatial thinking. Spatial design is concerned primarily at project- and regional scales, while geodesign is concerned with similar issues but also at a global scale.  Further discussion is needed to fully develop these concepts and build a curriculum around them.
  2. Differentiate between Unconscious and Conscious Global Design. Until recently, development projects and other programs and policies affecting the environment have been mostly short-sighted, project-based, and exclusive.  We need to focus on longer-term issues that are global in nature and inclusive of multiple factors.  The primary difference is intent.  Conscious geodesign—carefully and thoughtfully manage our planet for the health of all component earth systems–lets us control the fate not just of the human race, but of the entire planet and all of its systems.
  3. Develop Robust Design Tools for GIS Environments. The experience GIS developers have gained while developing CAD integration tools and sketching tools has led to an appreciation of the power that could be derived by associating drawing tools, symbology, data models, process models, and other design tools into a single, integrated framework for performing geodesign. Having “back of the napkin” design sketches available for immediate analysis and feedback should be a primary area of research and development over the coming years for geospatial application developers.
  4. Promote GIS as a Foundational Design System. Integration of design tools with existing GIS functionality is important, but it’s only the first step. Ultimately, we need to expand the application of GIS to the point that it is a foundational design system. As Richard Neutra did with architecture in the 1950s, we need to advance a framework for design and planning that not just incorporates but also embraces technology; science; and, ultimately, nature in a system that helps us design and choose the best alternative futures.

Conclusion

“We are as gods, and we might as well get good at it.”

Stewart Brand, 1968

As humanity comes to grips with its overwhelming impact on the natural world, we are also gaining a much better appreciation for our inextricable link to nature. And with that, of course, comes an enormous responsibility—a responsibility made all the more gargantuan by the fact that we still have a long way to go toward fully understanding the dynamics of the various systems and developing a robust suite of comprehensive models and other tools to support these activities.  An GIS-based framework for global design offers the best chance at gaining a true, scientific understanding about earth systems and for making thoughtful, informed design decisions and proposing alternatives that allow humans and nature to coexist more harmoniously.

Ecological Impacts of Climate Change: New Booklet from the National Academies

In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on June 1, 2009 at 6:16 am

ei_cover_largeLife on Earth is profoundly affected by the planet’s climate. Animals, plants, and other living beings around the globe are moving, adapting, and, in some cases, dying as a direct or indirect result of environmental shifts associated with our changing climate—disrupting intricate interactions among Earth’s species, with profound implications for the natural systems on which humans depend. To illuminate how climate change has affected species and ecosystems across the United States, this booklet, based on the conclusions of an independent, expert committee of the nation’s leading scientists, describes some of the ecological impacts of climate change that have already been observed right in our own backyard.

GIS Helps Clemson Scientists Evaluate Soils for Holding Earth’s Surplus Carbon

In Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on May 28, 2009 at 6:55 am

clemsonSoils play a vital role in dealing with the environmental impacts of rising atmospheric carbon levels — primarily carbon dioxide — from natural and human activities. Clemson University soil scientists are studying soil types, ranking them on their ability to hold carbon and preventing it from returning to the atmosphere for eons.

The Earth’s carbon budget — its balance between carbon used for plant growth and excess carbon stored — is a dynamic process. As carbon is released through fossil-fuel burning and changing land use, scientists are seeking a more accurate understanding of carbon storage and cycling.

The Earth holds carbon in what scientists call pools: reservoirs of carbon stocks stored in and on the Earth and oceans as organic and inorganic matter. Simplistically, organic carbon compounds are connected to plants or animals while inorganic carbon compounds are often linked to minerals or rocks. Soil is second only to the oceans as a carbon sink: pools into which more carbon flows in than out. Soil scientists have a better picture of soil organic carbon — soil containing decaying plant and animal matter — than soil inorganic carbon. Scientists are now studying soil inorganic carbon, theorizing it may be a key area for forming and holding carbon, preventing it from returning to the atmosphere for eons.

A team of Experiment Station scientists from Clemson University and Virginia Tech analyzed the 12 major soil groups in the continental United States, ranking them for their potential ability to form new soil inorganic carbon based on average annual atmospheric wet deposition of calcium, or the amount of ionic calcium present in rainfall. The results were first presented at the Soil Science Society of America Annual Meeting in November 2007 in New Orleans and recently have been published in the May-June 2009 issue of the Soil Science Society of America Journal.

The study evaluated average annual atmospheric wet deposition of ionic calcium from 1994 to 2003 in the continental United States by soil order using spatial analysis of ionic calcium wet deposition data obtained from the National Atmospheric Deposition Program and the State Soil Geographic Database from the Natural Resources Conservation Service of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Using geographic information system (GIS) software, spatial data layers were developed and averaged to create a final iconic calciu wet deposition map layer. The total deposition per soil order was calculated by combining the final average ionic calcium wet deposition map layer with the generalized soil order data layer.

Results from the study revealed that the total wet deposition of ionic calcium was 8.6 × 108 kilograms, which would be equivalent to the maximum theoretical formation of 2.6 × 108 kilograms of carbon as soil inorganic calcium, barring losses due to competitive processes, such as plant uptake, erosion and deep leaching. The soil orders receiving the highest area-normalized total wet deposition of ionic calcium were Alfisols and Mollisols, non-arid soils that typically are associated with the “bread-basket” regions of the United States.

Research team member Elena Mikhailova, a soil scientist at Clemson who originally conceived the research approach, stated, “Formation of new carbonate minerals in soils — what scientists call pedogenic carbonates — represent a pathway by which atmospheric (carbon dioxide) can be sequestered. Maps of potential (soil inorganic carbon) formation and storage based on wet (ionic calcium) deposition can aid in understanding terrestrial ecosystem inorganic carbon dynamics and the way it can be manipulated to decrease (carbon dioxide) concentrations in the atmosphere.”

The research is part of an ongoing project at Clemson to study soil carbon, particularly inorganic carbon stocks, and its role in the global carbon budget. Studies will measure, profile and identify the soil carbon characteristics and regional distribution to understand conditions and develop predictive models for future soil inorganic carbon research.

CONTACT: Christopher Post, 864-656-6939, cpost@clemson.edu

Will We Decamp for the Northern Rim?

In Climate Change, Geography, Science on May 27, 2009 at 11:13 am

whatsnextLaurence C. Smith is professor and vice chairman of geography and professor of earth and space sciences at UCLA. He studies likely impacts of northern climate change including the economic effects in the Northern Rim. Smith has written an essay titled “Will We Decamp for the Northern Rim?” which has been published in Max Brockman’s new book What’s Next? Dispatches on the Future of Science, which came out today.

Will We Decamp for the Northern Rim?

By Prof. Laurence C. Smith, UCLA

“Already the impacts are obvious in the extreme north, where melting Arctic sea ice, drowning polar bears, and forlorn Inuit hunters are by now iconic images of global warming. The rapidity and severity of Arctic warming is truly dramatic. However, the Arctic, a relatively small, thinly populated region, will always be marginal in terms of its raw social and economic impact on the rest of us. The greater story lies to the south, penetrating deeply into the “Northern Rim,” a vast zone of economically significant territory and adjacent ocean owned by the United States, Canada, Denmark, Iceland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, and Russia. As in the Arctic, climate change there has already begun. This zone — which constitutes almost 30 percent of the Earth’s land area and is home to its largest remaining forests, its greatest untouched mineral, water, and energy reserves, and a (growing) population of almost 100 million people — will undergo one of the most profound biophysical and social expansions of this century.”…

Applying Geospatial Technology to Global Design: Ethical Considerations

In Climate Change, Design, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Science on May 22, 2009 at 12:13 pm

Geospatial technologies are immensely important in helping us visualize physical and anthropogenic changes to earth’s climate and related systems, but ultimately their most valuable contribution lies in analyzing that change and supporting decision-making to help shape and design the future of earth systems in ways that are sustainable while still serving the purposes of humanity.  The principal goal of this blog post is to encourage a dialog on development of simple and actionable guidelines for ethical application of geospatial technologies for the purpose of analyzing, designing, and ultimately implementing purposeful changes to earth systems.

Before proposing a set of ethical guidelines for the application of geospatial technologies for supporting global design, it is helpful to look at some examples.  The review below presents some interesting and useful examples, but is in no way meant to be comprehensive.

A Note on Climate Change Ethics

Numerous papers and articles have been written about the “ethics of climate change,” their focus being primarily on humanity’s responsibility to the environment.  While such ethical considerations are important to communicate and debate, the focus of this blog post is not that humanity should be doing something to counter climate change but rather we need guidelines focused on the responsible and ethical use of technology in the shaping of decision making related to climate change.

Asmiov’s Laws of Robotics

In his 1942 short story “Runaround” in the book I, Robot, Isaac Asimov proposed his well-known three laws of robotics:

  • A robot may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a human being to come to harm.
  • A robot must obey orders given to it by human beings, except where such orders would conflict with the First Law.
  • A robot must protect its own existence as long as such protection does not conflict with the First or Second Law. (Asimov 1942)

Asimov later abstracted these same concepts and developed a second set of laws governing the design and use of tools more generally:

  • A tool must be safe to use.
  • A tool must perform its function efficiently unless this would harm the user.
  • A tool must remain intact during its use unless its destruction is required for its use or for safety.  (Asimov 2001)

Asimov’s laws transcended the realm of science fiction.  While we can apply some of what we learn from Asimov to the development of ethical guidelines for the use of geospatial technology in global design, the overriding theme throughout Asimov’s laws pertaining to both robotics specifically and tools generally is a focus on human safety without explicitly taking things like sustainability and the health of our planet into consideration.

All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace

Taking the first part of its title from a Richard Brautigan poem in which Brautigan envisioned a future where nature and technology are inextricably linked in a mutually beneficial relationship, Adam Greenfield’s essay on ethical guidelines for user experience in ubiquitous-computing settings provides a useful example of principals that meet the dual requirement of being both useful and humane (Greenfield 2004; Brautigan 1967).  Greenfield’s five principles are:

  • Default to harmlessness.
  • Be self-disclosing.
  • Be conservative of face.
  • Be conservative of time.
  • Be deniable.  (Greenfield 2004)

Similar to Asimov’s laws regarding tools in general and robotics in particular, Greenfield’s focus is weighted towards doing no harm to humans, but still presents us with such useful concepts as transparency and reversibility.

GISP Code of Ethics and Rules of Conduct

The GIS Certification Institute (GISCI) has established a Geographic Information Systems Professional (GISP) certification program for GIS practitioners who have met minimum standards for ethical conduct and professional practice.  The GISP Code of Ethics details a number of standards for obligations to society, employers and funders, colleagues and the profession, and individuals in society (GISCI ND a).  Their companion Rules of Conduct for Certified GIS Professionals is “a set of implementing laws of professional practice that seek to express the primary examples of ethical behavior consistent with the Code of Ethics.” (GISCI ND b)

GISCI ‘s GISP Code of Ethics and Rules of Conduct present a set of detailed, comprehensive, and GIS-centric guidelines on the moral and ethical responsibilities of geospatial practitioners.  Responsibility for and to the health and welfare of natural systems is not explicitly stated by GISCI, but should be clearly affirmed in any guidelines for the use of GIS in climate change modeling and global design.

Proposed Ethical Guidelines for the Application of Geospatial Technology to Global Design

As the application of GIS technology as a cornerstone of a climate change modeling and global design framework becomes increasingly more obvious, what we need is a set of guidelines that meld the nature-centric ethics of climate change with other ethical systems focused on ensuring the health and safety of humanity.  The following proposed guidelines should be carefully debated in the geospatial and scientific communities; they should be considered a starting point for a long, important conversation.

  • Actions should minimize harm to both humans and natural systems. Harmlessness, or what some ethicists refer to as the “harm test,” is the common denominator across multiple ethical systems, demanding that actions preclude any type of harm to human beings.  This is a bone of contention with those at the far end of the spectrum in the climate change debate, who some might say seemingly value nature more than human life.  Even if the goal is sustainability while still serving the purpose of humanity, it’s difficult to imagine actions which in all cases would be mutually beneficial to both nature and humans.  But one major benefit of a GIS-based framework for climate change modeling and global design is that it provides the power to analyze multiple scenarios and design the best possible future, supporting the principle that actions should minimize harm to both humans and natural systems.
  • Analysis should be complete and comprehensive. Climate change issues are complex and demand an all-inclusive and wide-ranging examination.  All relevant aspects of physical, biological, and social systems need to be considered and represented.  Multiple data layers describing the intricacies of each relevant system, an array of sophisticated domain-specific models, and use of a GIS-based framework to tie everything together and evaluate multiple future options will insure that the analysis is both complete and comprehensive.
  • Actions should be transparent and defensible. Climate change issues are often ideologically and politically charged, and global design recommendations resulting from spatial analysis and modeling could have massive positive or negative consequences on human health and welfare and earth systems.  All research, analysis, and modeling needs to be objective, keeping with high standards of scientific integrity and following the scientific method.  Results—and the methods used to obtain them—need to be clearly communicated.  (GISCI ND).   All efforts should be taken to insure that the process is transparent, and the resulting recommendations are defensible.
  • Actions should be adaptable and reversible. Adaptive systems feature feedback loops for sensing and responding to environmental changes.   (Kosko  1993)  Allenby states that “…because the potential outcomes of each action become clear only as the system adjusts, the engineer is behaving unethically if she or he doesn’t monitor the results of the chosen action, and modify them accordingly.”  (Allenby 2005).  And while the goal of using a GIS-based framework for earth systems modeling and global design is to get the most comprehensive and complete picture as possible with current technology, it would be irresponsible to assume we know everything and lock in to an option from which there is no exit should things go horribly awry.  Therefore, all actions should be adaptable and reversible.

References

Allenby, Brad, 2005.   Micro and Macro Ethics for an Anthropogenic Earth.   Professional Ethics Report.  Volume XVIII, Number 2, Spring 2005.

Asimov, Isaac, 1942.  “Runaround”.  In I, Robot.

Asimov, Issac, 2001. Robot Visions.  12 April 2001.

Brautigan, Richard, 1967.  All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace.

EDCC ND.  White Paper on the Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change. Collaborative Program on the Ethical Dimensions of Climate Change.    http://www.webethics.net/padova2008/doc/pdf/edcc-whitepaper.pdf

GISCI ND a.  A GIS Code of Ethics.  GIS Certification Institute.  http://www.gisci.org/code_of_ethics.aspx

GISCI ND b.  Rules of Conduct for Certified GIS Professionals (GISPs).   GIS Certification Institute.  http://www.gisci.org/Ethics_and_Conduct/rules_of_conduct.aspx

Greenfield, Adam, 2004.  All Watched Over by Machines of Loving Grace: Some Ethical Guidelines for User Experience in Ubiquitous-Computing Settings.  Boxes and Arrows, December 2004.  http://www.boxesandarrows.com/view/all_watched_over_by_machines_of_loving_grace_some_ethical_guidelines_for_user_experience_in_ubiquitous_computing_settings_1_

Kosko, Bart, 1993. Fuzzy Thinking: The New Science of Fuzzy Logic.

GIS Enters the Design Space

In Climate Change, Design, ESRI, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS on May 20, 2009 at 7:27 am

By Matt Artz, GIS and Science Program Manager, ESRI

“Imagine if your initial design concept, scribbled on the back of a cocktail napkin, has the full power of GIS behind it. The sketch goes into the database, becoming a layer that can be compared to all the other layers in the database.”

With that simple yet powerful introduction, ESRI president Jack Dangermond launches in to an explanation of the convergence of GIS and design. Dangermond is truly excited about the possibilities. That’s why he chose “GIS: Designing Our Future” as the theme for the 2009 ESRI International User Conference, to be held next month in San Diego, California.

A GIS is a collection of hardware, software, and data for managing, visualizing, and analyzing geographic information. But what exactly is design? That depends on who you ask. A formal definition might explain how design is the process of planning or sketching the structure or form of something. Other definitions of design are more esoteric, yet much more descriptive. Charles Eames called design “a plan for arranging elements in such a way as to best accomplish a particular purpose.” Glen Lowery described design as “a bridge between the abstraction of research and the tangible requirement of real life.” And Gavin Heaton defined design simply as “applied imagination.”

Designing Our Future

So how does GIS play in the design space? Dangermond believes that the key to developing a true understanding of our complex and dynamic earth is creating a framework to take many different pieces of past and future data from a variety of sources and merge them in a single system. GIS is a sophisticated technological tool already in widespread use by planners, engineers, and scientists for displaying and analyzing all forms of location-referenced data about the health, status, and history of our planet. GIS enables a GeoDesign framework for analyzing, managing, and ultimately directing anthropogenic earth issues by allowing users to inventory and display large, complex spatial datasets. They can also analyze the potential interplay between various factors and design alternative futures, getting us closer to a true understanding of how our dynamic earth systems may change in the coming decades and centuries—and how we may thoughtfully and intelligently direct that change.

It’s not a stretch to say that development of GIS technology and the entire industry around it was profoundly influenced by the foundational work of landscape architect Ian McHarg. He popularized the overlay concept and laid the groundwork for what was to become GIS, taking a number of budding young landscape architects and geographers and changing their lives forever. “McHarg and I may have disagreed on some things, but we clearly shared the vision of using geographic analysis techniques to design a better world,” notes Dangermond. “Although we’ve made a lot of progress in building the technological infrastructure to help us accomplish this monumental task, we still have work to do.”

Design is art within the framework of limitations—limitations that arise as a result of function, world view, bias, and other factors, but also limitations that arise as a result of place. “Design considering place was at the core of McHarg’s beliefs, and it is the basis for our research and development efforts in the emerging field of GeoDesign,” notes Dangermond.

GeoDesign borrows concepts from landscape architecture, environmental studies, geography, planning, regenerative studies, and integrative studies. Much like GIS and environmental planning before it, GeoDesign takes an interdisciplinary, synergistic approach to solving critical problems and optimizing location, orientation, and features of projects both local and global in scale.

GeoDesign may be a new term to some people, but GIS and design have a long history together. And whether they realize it or not, over the last 40 years, many GIS professionals have been involved in GeoDesign projects. “To a certain extent, this is already done today by numerous GIS practitioners in fields like urban and regional planning and environmental management,” says Dangermond. “But GeoDesign makes this easier by making it an integral part of the workflow, both shortening the cycle time of the design process and improving the quality of the results.” Dangermond sees with great clarity a new focus on this synergistic approach, primarily lead by such pressing issues as environmental degradation and climate change.

What Is GeoDesign?

GeoDesign brings geographic analysis into the design process, where initial design “sketches” are instantly vetted for suitability against a myriad of database layers describing a variety of physical and social factors for the spatial extent of the project. This on-the-fly suitability analysis provides a framework for design, giving land-use planners, engineers, transportation planners, and others involved with design the tools to directly leverage geographic information within their design workflows. “Taking full advantage of geography during the design process results in designs that emulate the best features and functions of natural systems, benefiting both humans and nature through a more peaceful and synergistic coexistence,” Dangermond said.

GeoDesign involves three activity spaces: the work environment (where designers do their work), design tools (the tools designers use to do their work), and supportive workflows (how designers do their work). Having one of these out of sync with either of the others can impede the design process.

  • Work Environment—The work environment used by GeoDesign professionals involves the field, the desktop, connection to enterprise servers and databases, the use of document management systems, collaborative environments (both inside and outside the enterprise), and interaction with outside agencies and organizations.
  • Design Tools— GeoDesigners use a variety of tools to assist them as they create their designs. The most frequently used type of tool is the drawing tool. The particular type of drawing tool depends on the designer’s domain and whether the designer is working in 2D or 3D space.
  • Supportive Workflows—Most GeoDesign workflows are domain specific. Three workflows pertaining to the use of geographic information stand out, however, as being predominantly genetic: one related to land-use change; one related to the design, construction, and management of built facilities; and one related to the use of 2D CAD.

Meeting the Challenge

Integration of design tools with existing GIS functionality is important, but it’s only the first step. Dangermond’s vision expands the utility of GIS to the point that it is a foundational design system. As humanity comes to grips with its overwhelming impact on the natural world, we are also gaining a much better appreciation for our inextricable link to nature and how technology can help us make the world a better place. And with that, of course, comes an enormous responsibility—a responsibility made all the more gargantuan by the fact that we still have a long way to go toward fully understanding the dynamics of the various systems and developing a robust suite of comprehensive models and other tools to support the design of alternative futures.

“A better world is the common goal all of us—geographers, planners, scientists, and others—have been striving for,” says Dangermond. “We should be using our dominance of the earth and advanced technologies such as GIS to help evolve the natural world and make it better, not to ‘conquer’ it. Powerful anthropogenic influence over earth systems represents not just a huge challenge but an equally huge opportunity—not humans versus nature, but humans with nature.”

You can learn more about Jack Dangermond’s vision of GeoDesign at the 2009 ESRI International User Conference. Also, look for his upcoming article titled “GIS: Designing Our Future” in the summer 2009 issue of ArcNews.

Towards a GIS-Based Framework for Climate Change Studies

In Climate Change, Earth Systems Management, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Science on May 19, 2009 at 7:42 am

“…a better world is the common goal all of us—geographers, planners, scientists, and others—have been striving for.  Although we’ve made a lot of progress in building the (technological) infrastructure to help us accomplish this monumental task, we’re still not quite there yet.”
–Jack Dangermond (Dangermond 2009)

A GIS-based approach to climate change studies provides a framework for understanding and addressing the entire breadth of climate change science issues in a holistic manner.  Scientists have long classified various phenomena into logical groupings or “systems.”  These classifications have helped greatly to advance the understanding of component physical, biological, and social systems, yet often create artificial boundaries between disciplines that can be detrimental to the understanding of larger issues.  While advancing the understanding of each of these individual systems is vitally important, ultimately we need to bring all of these systems together, to understand how they are interrelated and dependent upon one other.

Such a framework provides a base enablement system for global data management, visualization, analysis, modeling, and ultimately design.  In order to move climate change studies from a massive collection of unrelated or loosely linked endeavors towards an open, integrated framework, there are four areas we need to change: data, models, organization, and mindset.

Various frameworks and programs already address a number of the issues and challenges in establishing such a framework.  Careful review of the approaches to data, models, organization and mindset in these frameworks and programs will help us to identify concepts and components that can be leveraged—as well as gaps that can be filled—by a GIS-based framework for climate change studies.

The review below presents some representative examples, and is not meant to present a comprehensive inventory of such frameworks and programs.

Data

OpenStreetMap.  The OpenStreetMap project leverages volunteers to perform on-the-ground surveys with their personal GPS and other equipment to create a global base map that is freely distributed and can be edited by anyone.  The non-profit OpenStreetMap Foundation provides support for the project, but does not “control” the project per se. 

OpenStreetMap is a model for creating a global data set by citizen volunteers.  Organizationally it provides a good example of a successful structure for managing the creation and distribution of the data, as well as maintaining quality standards.

Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS).  The notion of a system of systems for geospatial information was first suggested by the National Academy of Sciences Mapping Science Committee and was referred to as the National Spatial Data Infrastructure. More recently, this architecture has been adopted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and others as part of their architecture for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS). GEOSS serves as a global framework for integrating the large number of global remote-sensing systems into a loosely coupled network available to many participants, providing decision-support tools to a wide range of users.

GSDI.  GIS has proven to be an important and reliable tool for management of spatial information at all geographic levels, from local to global. Over the past 15 years, a number of national, regional, and international organizations have moved towards a vision of building a Global Spatial Data Infrastructure (GSDI) for the sharing of spatial data. The GSDI Association and its membership are responsible for promoting this framework, with a goal of mapping the globe at a resolution of 1 km or better, and including information on a wide variety of geographic features.

Models

Standalone and GIS-based Models.  An ever-growing number of models currently exist for abstracting, simulating, and understanding complex details of physical, biological, and social systems and subsystems (Goodchild 2005).   The domains of the individual modeling packages vary widely, from soils to hydrology, from socioeconomics to land-use transportation (Wegner 2005, Batty 2005, Maidment 2005).  While much progress has been made in recent years to develop models to help us to better understand our world, there is still much more to be done—especially in the area of integration.  As we gain more detailed understanding of different granular systems and their components, the challenge in addressing complex issues such as global climate change is coupling these models together to gain a more complete picture.  The combination of powerful hardware, sophisticated software, and increased human knowledge have all contributed to better models and more accurate simulations, but a GIS-based framework for integrating these disparate representations of past, present, and future states is key to understanding the whole earth (Maguire 2005).

Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) .  The Earth System Modeling Framework (ESMF) is an open source collaborative project co-sponsored by the U.S. Department of Defense, NASA, the National Science Foundation, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).  The goal of the ESMF project is to build “…high-performance, flexible software infrastructure to increase ease of use, performance portability, interoperability, and reuse in climate, numerical weather prediction, data assimilation, and other Earth science applications.”  (UCAR ND)

A key component is definition of an architecture for coupling together of disparate modeling systems, as well as providing support of new, framework-complaint models.  A core principle of the ESMF framework is the deconstruction of complex models into small components defined by standards such that they can be quickly and easily assembled in different ways to create new models.  However, ESMF is primarily focused on sharing of code and models, not data and workflows.

Organization

Climate Collaboratorium.  The Climate Collaboratorium is a project of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Center for Collective Intelligence in the Sloan School of Management.  The Climate Collaboratorium project aims to leverage new information technology and social media to bring together large numbers of like-minded yet geographically and socially dispersed individuals to collaborate on issues surrounding the global climate change debate.  Using what they term collective intelligence, Malone and Klein hope that this framework will “focus … on a possible use of such a system with a particularly high social return: drawing on the best human and computational resources available to develop government policies about climate change.” (Malone and Klein 2007)  The Climate Collaboratorium project hopes to show that adopting a framework that is decentralized yet carefully managed can be an effective method to approach large, resource-intensive problems such as global climate change. (Malone 2009)

Planet Action.  Planet Action is a not-for-profit collaborative initiative launched in June 2007 by Spot Image. Its purpose is to encourage the earth observation industry and professional GIS communities to address climate change by supporting projects that investigate and assess climate change environmental impacts in five areas of focus: human dimensions and habitation, drought and water resources, vegetation and ecosystems, oceans, and ice and snow cover. By assisting in and funding projects that will support understanding and action on environmental impacts, the Planet Action initiative hopes to strengthen international cooperation and response to climate change problems.

Planet Action projects must meet certain criteria before qualifying for support. Each project must assess climate change-related impacts and issues and initiate a course of action. Accepted projects must also incorporate good scientific understanding, resources, and methods. The Planet Action project is an example of private industry leaders coming together to tackle global issues usually associated with the realm of governments and NGOs.

CPDN and APS@home .  Citizen scientists are people who have a strong interest in some facet of science, but pursue this interest outside of mainstream academic, research, and industrial organizations.  These self-directed individuals might very well be using their own resources, working in their garages to develop “the next big thing.” But more often they are networked, working together with fellow citizen scientists. And this is where they become a powerful force to be taken seriously within the scientific community. Scientists, and “professionals doing science,” often are the ones organizing these citizen science networks; they realize the great value a group of eager volunteers can bring to a project.

A good, although somewhat controversial (depending on your belief in intelligent extraterrestrial life) example of a mass of volunteers carefully organized to work on an overwhelmingly humongous project is SETI@home.  As a volunteer, you download some software that utilizes the “idle time” on your home computer to scan through reams of radio telescope data and search for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence. If nothing else, it has served as a model for bringing large numbers of volunteers (more than five million participants worldwide) together to work collectively on a massive task.

Closer to home, CPDN and APS@home are two distributed computing projects with an earth science spin. CPDN is investigating how small changes affect climate models. APS@home is looking at atmospheric components of climate change. Although public participation in both CPDN and APS@home is not nearly at the same scale as SETI@home, the potential is certainly there.

Is there an opportunity for the citizen scientist to leverage geospatial technologies in their quest for knowledge, entertainment, and contributing to society? Absolutely. With the relatively recent arrival of powerful (and free!) geospatial visualization tools such as Google Earth, ArcGIS Explorer, and NASA World Wind, it is now easier than ever for the citizen scientist to have some fun with maps while making a potentially important scientific contribution.

Amassing large numbers of volunteers to work on geospatial problems such as climate change is already taking place as shown by the CPDN and APS@home examples. What is needed next is something at a much larger scale, where not just physical, but also biological, social, cultural, economic, and political data and models are integrated to give a more accurate depiction of the complexities inherent in the anthropogenic Earth.

First we need to create an environment that successfully brings together a plethora of data sources and modeling systems—a noble vision for GIS, but not something to be tackled by citizen scientists. Once the data and technology is in place, and a clear framework is established, then comes the opportunity to organize a large group of volunteers who would do the “grunt work” of tackling one of the biggest challenges facing us.

Imagine a framework where tens or even hundreds of thousands of citizen scientists log in to a web site and download geospatial data sets and work task lists, then using a focused desktop geospatial application they also downloaded, they run different analysis and modeling scenarios as defined in the task list…then upload the results of their analysis back to the main data repository.

If properly structured and managed, such a project could significantly advance our understanding of the planet. At this scale, it would be difficult if not impossible to pull off without the participation of citizen scientists. They are out there, anxious to help… just waiting for us to create the framework.

Mindset

Earth Systems Engineering & Management (ESEM).  The relatively new field of earth systems engineering and management (ESEM) concerns itself with the design, engineering, analysis, and management of complex earth systems. ESEM takes a holistic view of multiple issues affecting our earth—not only taking environmental, social, and other considerations into account up front in the design process, but also looking at challenges from an adaptive systems approach, where ongoing analysis feeds back in to the continual management of the system.  (Dangermond 2009)

Braden Allenby, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Arizona State University and one of ESEM’s founders, often emphasizes the undeniably dominant role humans have in earth systems. “We live in a world that is fundamentally different from anything that we have known in the past,” says Allenby. “It is a world dominated by one species, its activities and technologies, its cultures, and the integrated effects of its historical evolution.” (Allenby 2009)  Ian McHarg was already moving in this direction in the 1960s, and today we understand that it is even more important to emphasize the anthropogenic elements of earth systems. (McHarg 1969)  In other words, at this stage of ecological evolution, humans are a significant, if not dominating, component of the natural environment, and all problems need to be addressed and decisions made with anthropogenic elements in the forefront.

Allenby sees reasoned design and management in the age of the anthropogenic earth as our moral imperative, but the biggest obstacle to our success is that we are not set up to work, or even think, in this way. “We lack solid data and analytical frameworks to make assertions about the costs, benefits, and normative assessments of different … practices” (Allenby 2005). And this is why GIS integrated with design is critical to the success of approaches such as ESEM and other logical and rational models for dealing with the environmental and planning problems of ours and future generations.  (Dangermond 2009)

Anthropogenic Biomes.  Biomes are geographic areas sharing similar biological characteristics.  Anthropogenic factors are now a major, if not primary, contributor to biomes and other methods for classifying features and functions of earth systems.

The concept of anthropogenic biomes “offer(s) a new way to understand our living planet by describing the way humans have reshaped its ecolog(y)” (Ellis and Ramankutty 2007).  Conventional methods of representing biomes on maps are no longer applicable in an the age of the Anthropocene, and Ellis and Ramankutty note that ”[b]iomes derived from global patterns of human interaction with ecosystems may be a stronger model of global ecological patterns & processes.”

Anthropogenic biomes provide us with a framework for seamlessly integrating human factors in to natural systems, a necessary feature of an all-inclusive modeling framework for our planet.

References

Allenby, Braden, 2005.  Biomass Management Systems.  In Reconstructing Earth, 2005. http://www.lincolncenter.asu.edu/files/documents/centerprg_pacing_paper_metaphysics.pdf

Batty, Michael , 2005. Socioeconomic Applications. In D.J. Maguire, M. Batty, and M.F. Goodchild, editors, GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Modeling. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press, pp. 147–149.

Dangermond, Jack, 2009.  GIS: Designing Our Future.  ArcNews, Summer 2009.

Ellis, Erle C., and Ramankutty, Navin.  Anthropogenic Biomes: A Framework for Earth Science and Ecology in the 21st Century.  American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting, December 10-14, 2007, San Francisco, California. http://ecotope.org/people/ellis/presentations/ellis_agu_2007_12_13_for_web.ppt

Goodchild, Michael F., 2005. GIS and Modeling Overview. In D.J. Maguire, M. Batty, and M.F. Goodchild, editors, GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Modeling. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press, pp. 1–18.

Maguire, David J., 2005. Towards a GIS Platform for Spatial Analysis and Modeling. In D.J. Maguire, M. Batty, and M.F. Goodchild, editors, GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Modeling. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press, pp. 19–39.

Maidment, David R., 2005. Hydrologic Modeling. In D.J. Maguire, M. Batty, and M.F. Goodchild, editors, GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Modeling. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press, pp. 319–332.

Malone, Thomas W., 2009.  Can Collective Intelligence Save the Planet? May 5, 2009 http://www.climatebiz.com/blog/2009/05/05/can-collective-intelligence-save-planet

Malone, Thomas W., and Klein, Mark, 2007. Harnessing Collective Intelligence to Address Global Climate Change.  In Innovations.  Summer 2007, Vol. 2, No. 3, Pages 15-26  http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/abs/10.1162/itgg.2007.2.3.15

McHarg, Ian, 1969.  Design with Nature.

UCAR ND.  About ESMF.  University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (http://www.esmf.ucar.edu/about_us/index.shtml)

Wegner, Michael, 2005. Urban Land-Use transportation Models. In D.J. Maguire, M. Batty, and M.F. Goodchild, editors, GIS, Spatial Analysis, and Modeling. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press, pp. 203–220.

Addressing Climate Change through Collective Intelligence

In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Quotes on May 6, 2009 at 12:24 pm

logo_mit-cci“We have a big project in the Center for Collective Intelligence on global climate change. We call it the Climate Collaboratorium. The starting premise is that many people would say that global climate change is one of, if not the most, important societal problem we face. And if ever there was a problem that needed the most collective intelligence we can muster, this would be one of them.

“So what can we do? How can we harness the collective intelligence of thousands of people all over the world and whatever computational resources they can take advantage of to help us humans figure this out?”

–Thomas Malone, Patrick J. McGovern Professor of Management at the MIT Sloan School of Management

    Sea-floor Sediments Illuminate 53 Million Years of Climate History

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on May 1, 2009 at 7:08 pm

    joides_peat1_f…from the National Science Foundation…

    “The Integrated Ocean Drilling Program (IODP) drillship JOIDES Resolution is returning to port in Honolulu this week after a two-month voyage to chart detailed climate history in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The expedition was the first of two back-to-back voyages of a scientific project called Pacific Equatorial Age Transect (PEAT). It was the first international scientific drilling expedition after the JOIDES Resolution underwent a multi-year transformation into a 21st-century floating science laboratory.”

    CCSM Climate Change Projections Available for Download

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science on May 1, 2009 at 9:20 am

    globalThe National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)’s GIS Initiative Climate Change Scenarios GIS data portal is intended to serve a community of GIS users interested in climate change. The free datasets of climate change projections can be viewed on-line and/or downloaded in a common GIS (shapefile) or text file format. Many 2D variables from modeled projected climate are available for the atmosphere and land surface. Climate change projections were generated by the NCAR Community Climate System Model (CCSM) for the 4th Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

    Earth System Grid: Climate Model Datasets as Community Resources

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science on May 1, 2009 at 8:55 am

    esgThe Earth System Grid II (ESG) is a research project sponsored by the U.S. DOE Office of Science under the auspices of the Scientific Discovery through Advanced Computing program (SciDAC). The primary goal of ESG is to address the formidable challenges associated with enabling analysis of and knowledge development from global Earth System models. Through a combination of Grid technologies and emerging community technology, distributed federations of supercomputers and large-scale data & analysis servers will provide a seamless and powerful environment that enables the next generation of climate research.

    High-resolution, long-duration simulations performed with advanced DOE SciDAC/NCAR climate models will produce tens of petabytes of output. To be useful, this output must be made available to global change impacts researchers nationwide, both at national laboratories and at universities, other research laboratories, and other institutions. To this end, we propose to create a new Earth System Grid, ESG-II – a virtual collaborative environment that links distributed centers, users, models, and data. ESG-II will provide scientists with virtual proximity to the distributed data and resources that they require to perform their research. The creation of this environment will significantly increase the scientific productivity of U.S. climate researchers by turning climate datasets into community resources. In creating ESG-II, we will integrate and extend a range of Grid and collaboratory technologies, including the DODS remote access protocols for environmental data, Globus Toolkit technologies for authentication, resource discovery, and resource access, and Data Grid technologies developed in other projects. We will develop new technologies for (1) creating and operating “filtering servers” capable of performing sophisticated analyses, and (2) delivering results to users. In so doing, we will simultaneously contribute to climate science and advance the state of the art in collaboratory technology. We expect our results to be useful to numerous other DOE projects. The three-year R&D program will be undertaken by a talented and experienced team of computer scientists at five laboratories (ANL, LBNL, LLNL, NCAR, ORNL) and one university (ISI), working in close collaboration with climate scientists at several sites.

    Planet Action Panel Discussions Scheduled for 2009 ESRI International User Conference

    In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery, Science on May 1, 2009 at 8:06 am

    planetactionlogoPlanet Action is a non-for-profit collaborative initiative launched in June 2007 to encourage the Earth observation and geographic information professionals to help address climate change-related issues. Planet Action was launched by Spot Image, and partners include ESRI, UNESCO, CNES, CRISP, DEFINIENS, DigitalGlobe, ITT, and NSPO.

    Planet Action will be holding two panel discussions at the ESRI International User Conference in San Diego, California on Thursday, 16 July 2009.

    Session I: 1:30 p.m. to 2:45 p.m.
    Session II: 3:15 p.m. to 4:30 p.m.

    Location: Room 32 A

    With more than 30 ground station partners, Planet Action is truly an international effort. Come hear from a selection of our 85 grantees from around the world about their on-the-ground projects and how they have made use of their spatial technology grants from Planet Action.

    • Mario Hernandez, UNESCO
    • Peter Ndunda, Green Belt Movement
    • Aurelie Shapiro, WWF
    • Andrew Scanlon, Eco-Institute
    • Rosanna Rivero, Everglades Foundation
    • Pierre Duquesne, Brazil Spot Image
    • Dr. James Sheppard, Center for Reproduction of Endangered Species (CRES)
    • Nancy Briggs, Orangutan Foundation International
    • Birute Galdikas, Orangutan Foundation International
    • Leslie Bolick, Orangutan Foundation International

    ESRI UC web site

    Planet Action Day: 09 June 2009

    In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery on May 1, 2009 at 7:51 am

    r1956_3_logo_paday_170This year Planet Action is celebrating its second anniversary and will be holding the first Planet Action Day conference in Toulouse, France.  We look forward to welcoming all our partners, experts, project leaders, and more.  An exhibition space will showcase projects supported by Planet Action (posters and demos), as well as partners having contributed to the projects.  The evening session will be open to a broader public.

    Understanding Sprawl Inequality

    In Climate Change, GIS, Geography, Science, Social Science on April 30, 2009 at 6:52 am

    Rob McDonald, a scientist with The Nature Conservancy‘s Conservation Strategies Division, writes at the Cool Green Science blog:

    “Another concept I’ve been exploring is what I’m calling sprawl inequality. This comes out of the famous Pareto Principle, that 80 percent of any phenomenon is due to 20 percent of the people. How much of habitat loss in cities is due to a small proportion of folks living in suburbs or exurbs? After a bunch of GIS work, the answer appears to be: 80 percent of urban development (in terms of area) is due to 35 percent of folks who live at the lowest densities. We may all have a responsibility to move toward more sustainable cities, but we aren’t all equally to blame for sprawl.”

    Do Controlled Burns Ease Global Warming?

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on April 30, 2009 at 6:41 am

    …from The Australian…

    “WHEN Europeans first encountered Australia, they saw a continent ablaze as Aboriginal ‘firestick farmers’ lit up the bush with controlled burns that prevented destructive wildfires. Now a hi-tech version of the land management practice, which is possibly tens of thousands of years old, could form part of Australia’s strategy to tackle a modern problem: global warming.

    “The prescribed burning of the future probably will be ‘a combination of traditional knowledge and Western science’, says the CSIRO’s Heckbert.

    “‘It would include a fire management plan based on sophisticated GIS (geographic information systems), precision weather forecasting and biomass models. Implementation of the plan would involve the deployment of helicopters and fire crews using the latest equipment, and the effects would be monitored with high-resolution satellite imagery.’”

    Forestry Carbon Trading Opportunities Explored with GIS

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on April 29, 2009 at 12:53 pm

    forecon…from the Winter 2009 issue of the Environmental Observer newsletter…

    “Fossil fuel emissions lead to a host of degradations of our planet including global warming.  Forest researchers are offering a means of monitoring and counterbalancing civilization’s need for manufactured goods with nature’s ability to cleanse the atmosphere of harmful emissions resulting from production.  A key tool to measure these trade-offs and provide the basis for designing sustainable plans is the use of geographic technologies.  GIS can combine many layers of data, model that data in many ways, and generate reports and maps that make it easy to comprehend a complex problem.”

    Climate Change Science, GIS, and Whole Earth Systems

    In Climate Change, Design, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Science on April 29, 2009 at 10:40 am

    Global climate change is a difficult, complex, politically charged, and vitally important issue. Yet from a knowledge perspective, we are at a distinct disadvantage: at this point in time, we still do not have a clear idea of everything we need to know in order to address the problem in a measured, rational, and above all, scientific manner.

    When you think about the multitude of issues surrounding climate change science—from root causes to resultant impacts—geography is clearly an elemental factor in the equation. Every aspect of climate change affects or is affected by geography, be it at a global, regional, or local level. As a tool for helping us to better understand such geographies, GIS is the single most powerful integrating tool for inventorying, analyzing, and ultimately managing this extremely complex problem.

    A GIS-based approach called “Whole Earth Systems” provides a framework for understanding and addressing the entire breadth of climate change science issues in a holistic manner. What do we mean by “Whole Earth Systems”? Scientists have long classified various phenomena into logical groupings or “systems.” These classifications have helped greatly to advance the understanding of component physical, biological, and social systems. While advancing the understanding of each of these systems individually is vitally important, ultimately we need to bring all of these systems together, to understand how they are interrelated and dependent upon one other.

    Whole Earth Systems science offers an opportunity to advance the science and understanding of climate change by providing a framework for a comprehensive, interdisciplinary, integrated view of our planetary system. Aggregating complex physical, biological, and social data and models within a unified framework will give us single view of the whole Earth system and provide us with the tools to manage—and ultimately design—our future in the most effective, efficient, and morally defensible way.

    Investigating Temperature Extremes in the United States

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on April 28, 2009 at 9:32 am

    409Over at the ESRI GIS Education Community Portal, Joseph Kerski has posted an ArcLesson to help intermediate-level/university undergraduate students learn more about what might cause temperature extremes. “In this activity, you will investigate temperature extremes in the USA for the month of January 2009. You will use GIS for your primary investigative tool and begin with 30 questions. What is the effect of ocean proximity, latitude, and altitude on daily extreme high and low temperatures?”

    Quote of the Day

    In Climate Change, Quotes, Science on April 28, 2009 at 9:08 am

    “Truly surprising: Some in the business world are still skeptical of the science [of climate change]. From a practical business perspective, however, whether you believe is no longer relevant — your regulator does believe CO2 is dangerous. That means she is now required by the law to regulate CO2 emissions.”

    – Truman Semans and Rebecca Lutzy, Endangerment and Dangerous Regulation, ClimateBiz.com

    Journey of Mankind: The Peopling of the World

    In Climate Change, Education, Science, Social Science, Visualization on April 22, 2009 at 12:50 pm

    journey“The Bradshaw Foundation, in association with Stephen Oppenheimer, presents a virtual global journey of modern man over the last 160,000 years.  The map will show for the first time the interaction of migration and climate over this period.  We are the descendants of a few small groups of tropical Africans who united in the face of adversity, not only to the point of survival but to the development of a sophisticated social interaction and culture expressed through many forms.  Based on a synthesis of the mtDNA and Y chromosome evidence in archaeology, climatology, and fossil study, Stephen Oppenheimer has tracked the routes and timing of migration, placing it in context with ancient rock art around the world.”

    The GEOSS GEOportal

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science, Visualization on April 16, 2009 at 10:38 am

    image_galleryThe Group on Earth Observations (GEO), which is coordinating efforts to build a Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS), operates a portal (GEOportal) which provides a single Internet access point for data, imagery, and analytical software packages covering the entire Earth.

    “The GEOportal provides an entry point to access Earth Observation information and services. It will connect to a system of existing portals, addressing the GEO Societal Benefit Areas globally and provide national to regional perspective to achieve synergy and leverage.

    “Derived from ESA’s Earth Observation Community Portal www.eoportal.org. this proposed contribution to the GEOportal will put the accent on remote sensing, geospatial-static and in-situ data, information and services.

    “Maps, forecasts and other decision support tools, derived from, among others, satellite imagery and in situ observations play an important role in the work of decision makers, sustainable development planners and humanitarian and emergency managers in need of quick, reliable and up-to-date user-friendly cartographic products as a basis for planning and monitoring their activities.”

    ASPRS Announces Sergio Bernardes as 2009 Colwell Fellowship Winner

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Imagery, Modeling, Science on April 7, 2009 at 10:07 am

    The Robert N. Colwell Memorial Fellowship for 2009 was awarded to Sergio Bernardes.  He is a doctoral candidate at the University of Georgia (UGA) where he expects to earn a PhD in Geography in 2010.

    This award was presented by the American Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing (ASPRS) through the ASPRS Foundation from funds donated by students, associates, colleagues and friends of Robert N. Colwell. The award consists of a grant in the amount of $5,000, a certificate, and a one-year student or associate membership (new or renewal) in ASPRS. The presentation of the award took place at the ASPRS 2009 Annual Conference held in Baltimore, Maryland in March.

    The Colwell award was established in 2006 to encourage and commend college/university graduate students or post-doctoral researchers who display exceptional interest, desire, ability and aptitude in the field of remote sensing or other related geospatial information technologies, and who have a special interest in developing practical uses of these technologies.

    Bernardes’ research involves multi-temporal and multi-sensor analyses of biophysical parameters of vegetation in the Brazilian Amazon forest and savanna transition areas. His research on modeling of carbon sources and sinks, understanding human impacts on Brazilian Amazon forests and savanna, and advancing remote sensing image processing techniques will provide an important contribution to global change monitoring and modeling. Bernardes’ research program is consistent with the emphasis on practical applications of remote sensing to natural resources that characterized the career of Dr. Colwell, in whose memory this Fellowship is awarded.

    Bernardes earned a BS degree in Agricultural Engineering from Vicossa Federal University, Brazil in 1991 and an MS degree in Remote Sensing from the Brazilian National Institute for Space Research in 1996.  He held a highly competitive university-wide Graduate School Award for two years at the UGA and received the ASPRS GeoEye Award and other UGA graduate awards in 2008.

    Citizen Science Opportunity: The USA National Phenology Network

    In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Education, Environmental Science on April 7, 2009 at 10:04 am

    logoThe USA National Phenology Network brings together citizen scientists, government agencies, non-profit groups, educators, and students of all ages to monitor the impacts of climate change on plants and animals in the United States. The network harnesses the power of people and the Internet to collect and share information, providing researchers with far more data than they could collect alone.

    America’s Climate Choices Summit on March 30th and 31st

    In Climate Change, Conferences, Science on March 26, 2009 at 5:33 pm

    The National Academies is hosting a Summit on America’s Climate Choices on March 30 and 31, 2009 in Washington, DC, to develop the groundwork for a national response to climate change. America’s Climate Choices is a congressionally requested suite of studies that will produce five expert consensus reports to be released in late 2009 and 2010.

    Can’t attend? Watch the LIVE Webcast. Video and audio from the summit will be broadcast through the America’s Climate Choices web site on March 30th and 31st, and will be archived on the site.

    Ninety Years of Birdwatchers’ Notes Going Online

    In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Environmental Science, Science on March 26, 2009 at 6:19 am

    …from CNN.com…

    “More than 100 years ago, J.A. Loring had his eyes on the California sky and his hand on a pen.

    “His hand-scribbled notes, along with those of 3,000 other ‘citizen scientists,’ can be found lining the drawers of green filing cabinets in the basement of a U.S. Geological Survey building in Reston, Virginia.

    “These note cards — 6 million of them, spanning almost a century — contain a trove of invaluable information that could help unravel the effects of climate change on bird behavior.”

    Winners of Google’s KML in Research Competition

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, Geography, Science, Visualization on March 23, 2009 at 8:01 am

    Google has announce the seven winners of their KML in Research Competition.  And the winners are:

    • Grey Box System Identification of Bus Mass (Student Winner)
    • Environmental Toxicity in Wayne County Michigan (Student Winner)
    • Emergent Models of Earth’s Crustal Structure (Professional Winner)
    • North American Carbon (Professional Winner)
    • NCALM LiDAR Data Distribution Center (Professional Winner)
    • Global Infant Mortality 1960-2005 (Professional Winner)
      Visualizing Seasonal Climate Forecasts (Professional Winner)

    kmlcontest_depaor_pro

    Declan De Paor from Old Dominion University, a winner in the professional category, incorporated “a novel use of the time slider feature to expose models of the crust and mantel in the Aleutian Island chain” in the entry “Emergent Models of Earth’s Crustal Structure.”

    Less Carbon, More Jobs: EDF Maps Companies Likely to Benefit from Climate Legislation

    In Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Green Technologies on March 9, 2009 at 8:01 am

    indiana-th-090210The Environmental Defense Fund has created an online mapping application that can be used to identify companies likely to benefit from climate legislation. The application is interactive and lets you search by city and other criteria.

    LessCarbonMoreJobs.org

    Meeting the Challenge of Climate Change with GIS

    In Books, Climate Change, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Science, Visualization on March 7, 2009 at 3:45 pm

    On page 4 of the new report Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change from the National Academies Press, one of the committee’s top six priority actions for restructured climate change research is to…

    “Develop the science base and infrastructure to support a new generation of coupled Earth system models to improve attribution and prediction of high impact regional weather and climate, to initialize seasonal to decadal climate forecasting, and to provide predictions of impacts affecting adaptive capacities and vulnerabilities of environmental and human systems.

    “Further climate change is inevitable, even if humans significantly reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It is therefore essential not only to have the capacity to explain what is happening to climate and why (attribution), but also to improve predictions of weather and climate variability at the spatial and temporal scales appropriate to assess the impacts of climate change. Both will require improved infrastructure and techniques in modeling the coupled human-land-ocean-atmosphere system, supported by sustained climate observations. The latter are necessary to further develop and constrain the models and to start model predictions from the most accurate observed state possible (initialization). Tools are also needed to translate the data and model output into information more usable by stakeholders. Improved predictions of regional climate will also require more unified modeling frameworks that provide for the hierarchical treatment of climate and forecast phenomena across a wide range of space and time scales, and for the routine production of decadal regional climate predictions at scales down to a few kilometers. New computing configurations will be needed to deal with the computational and data storage demands arising from decadal simulations at high resolution with high output frequency.”

    The potential role of GIS as a base platform for helping to meet this goal cannot be understated. GIS will be invaluable as a foundation for data management (both of inputs and outputs associated with coupled Earth system models); performing analysis, spatial modeling, and geospatial statistics across multiple models; visualization and presentation of data and results; and dissemination of data and results to a wider audience.

    The key to developing a true understanding of our complex and dynamic earth is creating a framework to take many different pieces of past and future data from a variety of sources and merge them together in a single system. GIS is a sophisticated technology tool already in widespread use by planners, engineers, and scientists to display and analyze all forms of location-referenced data about the health, status, and history of our planet. GIS provides a framework for analyzing and managing anthropogenic earth issues by allowing users to inventory and display large, complex spatial data sets. They can also analyze the potential interplay between various factors, getting us closer to a true understanding of how our dynamic earth systems may change in the coming decades and centuries. A GIS framework also lets us design and test various alternatives, helping us make the most educated and informed decision about the best possible future.

    Scientists Map Rocks that Soak Up CO2 across the United States

    In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Science on March 6, 2009 at 11:56 am

    …from Scientific American, scientists at Columbia University’s Earth Institute and the U.S. Geological Survey have produced a set of maps showing rocks in the United States that are known to soak up CO2. More study is needed, but scientists hope that some day such rocks could be be coaxed to absorb carbon dioxide and possibly slow global climate change.

    Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change

    In Books, Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Geography, Modeling, Science on March 4, 2009 at 12:16 pm

    0309131731Now available in prepublication form for online reading from the National Academies Press is a new book titled Restructuring Federal Climate Research to Meet the Challenges of Climate Change.

    “Climate change is one of the most important global environmental problems facing the world today. Policy decisions are already being made to limit or adapt to climate change and its impacts, but there is a need for greater integration between science and decision making. This book proposes six priorities for restructuring the United States’ climate change research program to develop a more robust knowledge base and support informed responses:

    * Reorganize the Program Around Integrated Scientific-Societal Issues
    * Establish a U.S. Climate Observing System
    * Support a New Generation of Coupled Earth System Models
    * Strengthen Research on Adaptation, Mitigation, and Vulnerability
    * Initiate a National Assessment of the Risks and Costs of Climate Change Impacts and Options to Respond
    * Coordinate Federal Efforts to Provide Climate Information, Tools, and Forecasts Routinely to Decision Makers”

    Visualizing Priority Conservation Areas in Western North America

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Science, Visualization on March 3, 2009 at 10:12 am

    northamericaClimate Change-Priority Conservation Areas in Western North America is an online (use of Firefox browser recommended)  geospatial visualization tool that shows projected annual change in mean temperatures through 2094 in relation to The Nature Conservancy priority conservation areas for western North America.  Climate projections are from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) general circulation models (GCMs). The primary goal for this project was to develop standardized, cross-ecoregional spatial and tabular data that could address conservation issues and strategies across western North America. The database enables cross-jurisdictional analyses with third party data sets.

    Creating a Contintent-scale Ecological Observation Platform

    In Climate Change, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Geography, Modeling, Science, Visualization on March 3, 2009 at 8:58 am

    …from the Spatial Sustain blog over at Vector 1 Media…

    GSDI 11: Building SDI Bridges to Address Global Challenges

    In Climate Change, Conferences, ESRI, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on March 2, 2009 at 5:56 pm

    GSDI 11 will take place in Rotterdam, the Netherlands, 15-19 June 2009. The theme for the conference this year is “Spatial Data Infrastructure Convergence: Building SDI Bridges to Address Global Challenges.”

    Geographic information technologies and spatial data infrastructure play critical roles in allowing governments, local communities, non-government organizations, the commercial sector, the academic community and common people to make progress in addressing many of the worlds most pressing problems, such as global climate change. The approaches in building spatial data infrastructure within and among nations are in many respects converging. This conference will explore the convergence towards best standards, practices and processes among nations while at the same time explore ever evolving and exciting new approaches to the offering of geographic data and services in meeting real world needs.

    More info.

    GIS and Design for the Anthropogenic Earth

    In Climate Change, Design, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, GIScience, Geography, Modeling, Science on March 2, 2009 at 12:47 pm

    047111460x01_aa240_sclzzzzzzz_In his groundbreaking 1969 book Design with Nature, Ian McHarg advocated a framework for design that helps humans achieve synergy with nature. Design and planning which takes into consideration both environmental and social issues helps us to insure that our resources are used appropriately and responsibly, to help us move towards a better future for all. McHarg’s pioneering work not only had a fundamental influence on the up-and-coming field of environmental planning, but simultaneously solidified the core concepts of the young field of geographic information systems (GIS) as well.

    In the 40 years since Design With Nature was written, a better world is the common goal all of us—geographers, planners, scientists, and others—have been striving for. In his book, McHarg laid out a process by which “environmental data could be incorporated into the planning process.” Rejecting the view of a future modeled after some idyllic environmental past, he instead was an early adopter of the view that we should be using our dominance of earth systems to help evolve the natural world and make it better, rather than conquer it. Powerful anthropogenic influence over earth systems represents not just a huge challenge, but an equally huge opportunity. Not humans vs. nature, but humans with nature. “While traditional ecological research selected environments with a minimum human influence, I selected arenas of human dominance,” McHarg said. Today more than ever it is important to recognize the overwhelming impact of humans on the environment, that massive human impacts on the earth are a fact that’s not going away, and that we stand at the crossroads. Thus, our challenge: providing designers, engineers, planners, other others with a set of tools and a framework for designing and managing the anthropogenic earth.

    The relatively new field of earth systems engineering and management (ESEM) concerns itself with the design, engineering, analysis, and management of complex earth systems. ESEM takes a holistic view of multiple issues affecting our earth—not only taking environmental, social, and other considerations into account up front in the design process, but also looking at challenges from an adaptive systems approach, where ongoing analysis feeds back in to the continual management of the system.

    Braden Allenby, professor of civil and environmental engineering at Arizona State University and one of ESEM’s founders, often emphasizes the undeniably dominant role humans have in earth systems. “We live in a world that is fundamentally different from anything that we have known in the past,” says Allenby. “It is a world dominated by one species, its activities and technologies, its cultures, and the integrated effects of its historical evolution.” McHarg was already moving in this direction in the 1960s, and today we understand that it is even more important to emphasize the anthropogenic elements of earth systems. In other words, at this stage of ecological evolution, humans are a significant, if not dominating, component of the natural environment, and all problems need to be addressed and decisions made with anthropogenic elements in the forefront.

    Allenby sees reasoned design and management in the age of the anthropogenic earth as our moral imperative, but the biggest obstacle to our success is that we are not set up to work, or even think, in this way. “We lack solid data and analytical frameworks to make assertions about the costs, benefits, and normative assessments of different … practices,” notes Allenby. And this is why GIS integrated with design is critical to the success of approaches such as ESEM and other logical and rational models for dealing with the environmental and planning problems of ours and future generations.

    The key to developing a true understanding of our complex and dynamic earth is creating a framework to take many different pieces of past and future data from a variety of sources and merge them together in a single system. GIS is a sophisticated technology tool already in widespread use by planners, engineers, and scientists to display and analyze all forms of location-referenced data about the health, status, and history of our planet. GIS enables a design framework for analyzing and managing anthropogenic earth issues by allowing users to inventory and display large, complex spatial data sets. They can also analyze the potential interplay between various factors, getting us closer to a true understanding of how our dynamic earth systems may change in the coming decades and centuries. A GIS design framework also lets us design and test various alternatives, helping us make the most educated and informed decision about the best possible future.

    Is the Earth getting hotter or colder? Is the stress human populations are putting on the planet contributing to climate change? What potential factors may significantly impact our ability to thrive and survive in the future? What additional sorts of environmental monitoring can we be doing today to improve decisions in the future? We are only beginning to understand how to approach these questions, let alone come up with scientifically valid answers. Only through careful observation of the data, application of scientific principals, and by using GIS and other technologies do we have any hope of truly understanding the stressors and impacts on the incredibly complex systems that comprise our anthropogenic earth.

    Free Time Series Satellite Images for Busy People

    In Climate Change, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Geography, Imagery, Science on March 2, 2009 at 12:38 pm

    TerraLook, a joint project between NASA and the US Geological Survey, provides free georeferenced images for multiple dates in a common JPEG format, and bundles them with free, open source desktop software.

    NSF Encourages Study of Interactions among Environment, Society, and the Economy

    In Climate Change, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, Geography, Science on March 2, 2009 at 12:33 pm

    The National Science Foundation has released a “Dear Colleague” letter encouraging increased scientific research of the interactions between Earth’s environment, society, and the economy.

    GIS and Climate Change Resources

    In Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Science on February 24, 2009 at 7:13 am

    I’ve added a new page to the Resources section called “GIS and Climate Change Resources.”  This page is an evolving collection of links to publications, data, climate models, data models, distributed computing projects, and other resources pertaining to GIS and climate change.  If you have any resources you would like me to add, please feel free to comment here or email me.

    Registration for the Summit on America’s Climate Choices Now Open

    In Climate Change, Conferences, Environmental Science on February 24, 2009 at 6:27 am

    Public registration is now open for the Summit on America’s Climate Choices, being held March 30 and 31 at the National Academy of Sciences in Washington, D.C. Speakers and participants, including business leaders, members of Congress, Administration officials, and federal, state, and local leaders, will present their perspectives on what is needed to respond effectively to climate change. Space for the event will be limited and registrations taken on a first come, first served basis.  Click here to register. The event will be video webcast. The Summit agenda will be posted on the America’s Climate Choices website in early March.

    Opportunity for Public Input at D.C. Town Hall on February 24, 2009

    The public is invited to a Town Hall meeting to provide input to America’s Climate Choices on Tuesday, February 24, 2009 from 4:00-5:00 at the National Academies Keck Center in Washington DC.  There will be a 10-minute presentation about the study and then the floor will be open for questions and comments.  Email jsturdivant@nas.edu to RSVP for the event.

    AAG Meeting in Las Vegas, March 24, 2009

    There will also be a Town Hall Meeting on America’s Climate Choices held at the American Association of Geographers Annual Meeting, March 24, 2009, in Las Vegas, NV.  More information.

    Woods Hole Research Center’s National Biomass and Carbon Dataset

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Earth Systems Engineering, Earth Systems Management, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on February 23, 2009 at 1:49 pm

    Here’s a nice article from the Winter 2008/2009 issue of ArcNews titled “Woods Hole Research Center Measures Carbon Footprints in U.S. Forests with GIS.” There’s also a good list at the bottom of the article of various research projects currently being undertaken at Woods Hole that involve the use of GIS.

    GIS, Citizen Science Reveal Global Warming Threat to Bird Populations

    In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Science on February 10, 2009 at 2:36 pm

    In a press release today from the National Audubon Society, the impact of global warming on North American bird populations was analyzed thanks in part to the spatial analysis capabilities of GIS.

    “Detailed GIS maps produced using the California research project where the birds are likely to be in 50 to 100 years. Findings will help policymakers and land managers augment efforts to mitigate the severity of global warming impacts with better habitat conservation investments to address changes that can’t be avoided.”

    The study also a good example of how Citizen Scientists can assist in important projects.

    “Analyses of citizen-gathered data from the past 40 years of Audubon’s Christmas Bird Count (CBC) reveal that 58 percent of the 305 widespread species that winter on the continent shifted significantly north since 1968, some by hundreds of miles. ‘Citizen Science is allowing us to better recognize the impacts that global warming is having here and now. Only citizen action can help us reduce them,’ said Butcher.”

    GIS is a Green Technology: New e-Book Now Available

    In Books, Climate Change, ESRI, Environmental Science, GIS, Green Technologies on February 3, 2009 at 8:41 am

    green_ebook1ESRI has released a new e-book called “GIS is a Green Technology.”  The stories included in this e-book detail GIS-based applications for innovative, sustainable solutions to many of today’s common environmental problems. Some of the stories featured in this e-book include:

    • The Big Sky State Taps Wind Resources
    • Harvesting Efficiently Using Mobile GIS
    • Carbon Dioxide Sequestration Communications Supported by GIS
    • Idaho Power Company Protects the Lifeblood of the State
    • Ethanol Buzz Fuels GIS Planning by Colonial Pipeline Company
    • Boston Showcases Solar Power Potential with Web GIS
    • GIS for the Sustainable Management of Fish Stocks

    You can download the free e-book from the ESRI web site.

    And coming soon in this ever-expanding series of e-books is a new one called “GIS for Planetary Science”, which covers non-Earth applications of GIS.  I’ll make an announcement when it is available (later this month or early March).

    Marine Geospatial Technology Paper to be Presented at AAAS Meeting in Chicago

    In Climate Change, Conferences, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on January 20, 2009 at 1:38 pm

    The Nicholas School of the Environment and the Nicholas Institute for Environmental Policy Solutions announced that four of their faculty and staff members will take part in the 2009 annual meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), February 12th through 16th in Chicago, Illinois.  One of them, Professor Patrick N. Halpin, will be presenting a paper concerning the use of geospatial technology in marine ecology.

    Halpin, Gabel Associate Professor of the Practice of Marine Geospatial Ecology at the Nicholas School, will present, “Footprints, Tracks and Options for Marine Adaption to Climate Change,” at 8:30 a.m. Friday, February 13th.  He will present new findings from his pioneering research in the use of marine geospatial technologies to track and monitor endangered marine species.  Halpin will also be a featured presenter in a major AAAS news briefing on marine ecosystems and climate change at 4 p.m. Thursday, February 12th.

    The Nicholas School of the Environment is located on the campus of Duke University in Durham, North Carolina.

    Geospatial Technology and the Citizen Scientist

    In Citizen Science, Climate Change, Earth Systems Science, Environmental Science, GIS, Modeling, Science on January 7, 2009 at 3:32 pm

    “The purpose of the GIS and Science blog is to provide news, resources, commentary, and interviews on the use of GIS technology by the scientific community and for scientific applications.” When I originally wrote that, it was very carefully worded for a reason: scientists are not the only people doing science.

    There are a lot of different ways to slice and dice the demographic makeup of the GIS and Science blog audience. Here’s one:

    • Scientists: People doing science as a full-time job.
    • Professionals Doing Science: Science is not their job, but it’s a component of their job.
    • Citizen Scientists: People who have an interest in strong interest in science, but it’s not part of their job.

    Looking at the citizen scientist in particular, words that come to mind are hobby; entertainment; volunteer; and amateur. The word “amateur” should really be taken with a grain of salt: citizen scientists can and do make important contributions to various fields of study.

    Some citizen scientists work just fine all alone. These self-directed types might very well be in their garages developing “the next big thing.” But more often they are networked, working together with fellow citizen scientists. And this is where they become a powerful force to be taken seriously within the scientific community. Scientists, and “professionals doing science,” often are the ones organizing these networks; they realize the great value a group of eager volunteers can bring to a project.

    A good, although somewhat controversial (depending on your belief in intelligent extraterrestrial life) example of a mass of volunteers carefully organized to work on an overwhelmingly humongous project is SETI@home.  As a volunteer, you download some software that utilizes the “idle time” on your home computer to scan through reams of radio telescope data and search for signs of extraterrestrial intelligence. If nothing else, it has served as a model for bringing large numbers of volunteers (more than five million participants worldwide) together to work collectively on a massive task.

    Closer to home, CPDN and APS@home are two distributed computing projects with an earth science spin. CPDN is investigating how small changes affect climate models. APS@home is looking at atmospheric components of climate change. Although public participation in both CPDN and APS@home is not nearly at the same scale as SET@home, the potential is certainly there.

    Is there an opportunity for the citizen scientist to leverage geospatial technologies in their quest for knowledge, entertainment, and contributing to society? Absolutely. With the relatively recent arrival of powerful (and free!) geospatial visualization tools such as Google Earth, ArcGIS Explorer, and NASA World Wind, it’s easier than ever for the citizen scientist to have some fun with maps while making a potentially important scientific contribution.

    Amassing large numbers of volunteers to work on geospatial problems such as climate change is already taking place as shown by the CPDN and APS@home examples. What is needed next is something at a much larger scale, where not just physical, but also biological, social, cultural, economic, and political data and models are integrated to give a more accurate depiction of the complexities inherent in the anthropogenic Earth.

    First we need to create an environment that successfully brings together a plethora of data sources and modeling systems—a noble vision for GIS, but not something to be tackled by citizen scientists. Once the data and technology is in place, and a clear framework is established, then comes the opportunity to organize a large group of volunteers who would do the “grunt work” of tackling one of the biggest challenges facing us.

    Imagine a framework where tens or even hundreds of thousands of citizen scientists log in to a web site and download geospatial data sets and work task lists, then using a focused desktop geospatial application they also downloaded, they run different analysis and modeling scenarios as defined in the task list…then upload the results of their analysis back to the main data repository.

    If properly structured and managed, such a project could significantly advance our understanding of the planet. At this scale, it would be difficult if not impossible to pull off without the participation of citizen scientists. They are out there, anxious to help… just waiting for us to create the framework.

    Opportunity for Educators Who Use GIS

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Education, GIS, Geography, Science on January 6, 2009 at 11:21 am

    Teachers of grades 5–12, university instructors, and youth and community group leaders who have already integrated GIS in to their teaching can learn even more at the 2009 ESRI T3G Institute (Teachers Teaching Teachers GIS), June 14–19, 2009, in Redlands, California. Participants will work with ArcGIS software and data to improve their GIS knowledge and technical skills. Ultimately, attendees will apply what they learn back in their own classrooms or programs and show others in their field how to teach using GIS concepts.

    The analytic problem solving done with GIS is very similar to the scientific method taught across science labs. “Students using GIS study real-world phenomena in the same way as a practicing scientist, in a problem-solving environment, from a local to global scale,” says to Dr. Joseph Kerski, Curriculum Manager at ESRI. “This multi-scale approach includes the local–such as studying tree species on a school campus, to the global–like the relationship of climate and ocean currents, and everything in between.”

    The Science Classroom and GIS
    A national study found that science teachers use GIS in their classrooms more than teachers from any other subject. This may be because science teachers have had more exposure to inquiry-based and problem-solving methods in their own educational training, because they have greater access to computers, probes, and other technological tools, and because they are more familiar with using data to drive instruction.

    GIS has a natural intersection with science content standards, which are the benchmarks that help educators to know what a student understands and is able to do at each grade level. These standards include science as inquiry, involving asking scientific questions, gathering scientific data, analyzing that data, solving a problem, and asking new or revised questions.

    Other standards where GIS has a natural fit is physical science (motions and forces), life science (studying biomes, tracking animal movements), Earth and space (energy, the shape of the Earth), science and technology, and science in personal and social perspectives (population, resources, environmental quality, and natural hazards). Science teachers using GIS most commonly include those teaching chemistry, earth science, and environmental studies, but also includes physics and biology teachers. In addition, professors in university Colleges of Education use GIS to teach future K-12 teachers in their methods courses.

    More About the Institute
    The 2009 institute will include hands-on exercises; best practices discussions; and presentations about the latest geospatial trends in GIS, Web mapping, and GPS. The institute activities will be led by nationally known geospatial technology educators, and a limit of 30 participants will allow for individual assistance.

    Participants will leave the institute with a more proficient understanding of how to incorporate GIS into their teaching, find and use GIS-based lessons and public domain datasets, and train other educators on how to teach GIS. Following the institute, participants are expected to apply what they have learned by creating a GIS lesson to share on the Web; leading a hands-on GIS training event; and presenting at a conference the outcomes of their work such as GIS lessons, results of a class or group project, or a pedagogical approach to teaching youth or adults.

    Additional information and an application for the institute are available at http://edcommunity.esri.com/t3g-institute. Applications are due by January 15, 2009, and acceptance will be announced in February 2009.

    National Science Teachers Association Conference is March 19–22 in New Orleans

    In Climate Change, ESRI, Education, Environmental Science, GIS, Science on January 5, 2009 at 8:34 am

    The National Science Teachers Association is holding their 2009 National Conference in New Orleans, this coming March 19–22. ESRI education manager Joseph J. Kerski notes, “We will be participating again in the conference this year with exhibits (what we call the ‘geospatial zone’) and workshops. The geospatial zone is an excellent way for us to meet many of the 12,000 science educators expected to attend, where they can try some hands-on GIS, meet with our educational partners, review curriculum, test GPS receivers, and connect with other educators using GIS. Using GIS has been shown to advance science inquiry by incorporating spatial analysis, real-world data, field work, connection to community issues, and provide career pathways.”

    The workshops include “GIS for Earth Science Inquiry” and “GIS for Earth Science Inquiry”, which will explore how and why GIS and other geospatial technologies (GPS and remote sensing) are essential in earth and environmental science education and careers. Local to global topics will be investigated via practical classroom activities supporting science standards and inquiry. Participants will receive free GIS software and classroom resources. These topics include hurricanes and earthquakes, biodiversity, energy, water resources, urban sprawl, climate change, and more. For more information, see edcommunity.esri.com.

    For more information on the National Science Teachers Association, visit their web site at www.nsta.org. More details about the 2009 National Conference can be found at www.nsta.org/conferences/2009new/.

    Climate Modeling and Uncertainty

    In Climate Change, Modeling on December 17, 2008 at 7:49 am

    Nice little mention of the uncertainty of climate modeling in the Earthwise newsletter (Winter 2008-2009) from the Union of Concerned Scientists:

    What factor is the source of the most uncertainty in climate projections?

    Scientists use models—calculations typically run on multiple powerful computers—to project how global warming pollution in the atmosphere will affect future average temperatures, precipitation, and other aspects of our climate. The formulas used to project climate change differ among models, but the most significant variable is always how much energy will be used over the course of this century (based on choices made by governments, businesses, and individual citizens).

    To account for this uncertainty, climate models employ different “scenarios” to approximate the impact that different degrees of energy use will have on carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping emissions over time—which, in turn, yield different degrees of climate change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, for example, used a set of six scenarios for its most recent climate assessment, ranging from low emissions (the “B1” scenario) to high emissions (“A1FI,” in which FI represents fossil-fuel-intensive energy use).

    By the end of this century, as projected by the B1 scenario, temperatures rise between 2.7 and 5.2 degrees Fahrenheit (°F) over the 1980–2000 average; in the A1FI scenario, the projected rise in temperatures increases to between 6.1°F and 11.0°F. The difference between the average end-of-century temperatures for these two scenarios, therefore, is substantial—nearly 4.6°F. This underscores the need to make energy choices today that will set us on a lower-emissions path and avoid the most dangerous consequences of global warming.

    I had the opportunity to attend the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) presentation at the 2008 ESRI International User Conference in San Diego. It was a great presentation, and you can see the Powerpoint slides here.

    America’s Climate Choices and GIS

    In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS on December 10, 2008 at 8:52 am

    At the request of Congress, The National Academies has launched a suite of activities to examine a wide range of issues associated with global climate change.  Called America’s Climate Choices, the project will examine the science and technology challenges as well as provide advice on actions and strategies the nation can take to respond.  

    I am a strong proponent of the value of GIS in helping us to better understand and respond to climate change.  Geospatial technologies will certainly be well-represented in America’s Climate Choices, thanks to the appointment of the Honorable James E. Geringer to the Committee on America’s Climate Choices.  The former Governor of Wyoming, Geringer joined Environmental Systems Research Institute, Inc. (ESRI) as director of policy and public sector strategies.  Geringer and other members of the Committee will be responsible for providing overall direction, coordination, and integration of the on the full America’s Climate Choices suite of activities.  

    To learn more about this important study, visit americasclimatechoices.org. 

    Science and our Changing Climate: GIS Creates a Framework for Research and Modeling

    In Climate Change, ESRI, GIS on December 8, 2008 at 1:20 pm

    This article originally appeared in the January 30, 2008 issue of the Redlands Daily Facts, and was also reprinted in the e-book GIS for Climate Change, November 2008.

    GIS for Climate Change e-book

    Science and our Changing Climate

    GIS Creates a Framework for Research and Modeling

    By Matt Artz

    The Medieval Warm Period (10th to 14th centuries).  The Little Ice Age (16th to 19th centuries).  The Year Without a Summer (1816).  Earth’s climate has undergone radical changes in the distant as well as recent past, and is certain to undergo more radical changes in the not-too-distant future.  And as industrialization, population, and urbanization continue to increase, so too will stressors on the environment such as pollution.

    Such change in climate and environmental quality could have huge impacts on our quality of life.  Regardless of where you stand on the often politically-charged issue of “global warming” or “global climate change,” we owe it to ourselves and our children to take a cold, hard look at the data.

    The Age of Information

    We live in an age of readily and freely available information.  The Internet has given us unprecedented awareness of and access to vast quantities of climate data.  Never before have scientists and non-scientists had such easy and open access to the data and tools needed to study our climate.

    Two general types of data are useful in studying climate change: past observations and future predictions.  Examining and cross-referencing past and future data can help us identify changes already occurring, as well as help us predict patterns and trends that could impact our long-term fate.

    Observing the Past

    For centuries, mankind has been keeping careful records of rainfall, temperature, lake level, stream flow, etc. for thousands of locations across the globe.  Beyond these historical records, additional records of climate change stretch back even further when you consider fields such as dendrochronology (measuring the size of tree rings), which reveals climate data stretching back for thousands of years, and palynology (changes in the type and distribution of fossil pollen), which gives us clues about climate going back millions of years.  The result of all this collection and research is vast stores of data describing conditions at particular locations on the planet at particular points in time.

    Careful observation and analysis of past records might help us answer questions such as:  Are recent weather phenomena a short-term blip or a long-term trend?  What past climate changes are due to the Earth’s natural cycle versus what changes may have been caused by volcanic eruption, meteorite impact, or other cataclysmic disasters?

    Predicting the Future

    Anyone who watches the weather forecast on the evening news knows how frustrating it is to predict the future.  But prediction of short term, highly-localized conditions such as the chance of rain in Redlands on Friday afternoon is quite different from predicting long-term, more general phenomena such as global climate change.  Scientists for years have been using sophisticated computer models such as general circulation, atmosphere-ocean interaction, and radiative-convective process models in an attempt to visualize the future of earth’s climate.  The output of a particular model can be enlightening, but combining data from multiple sources, both past and future, gives us the best chance for a comprehensive and accurate vision of what the future holds for our planet.

    The Role of GIS

    The key to understanding our dynamic climate is creating a framework to take many different pieces of past and future data from a variety of sources and merge them together in a single system.  Information technology brings together data from these many different sources into a common computer database.  A geographic information system (GIS) is a sophisticated technology tool used by planners, engineers, and scientists to display and analyze all forms of location-referenced data including meteorological information.  GIS creates a new framework for studying global climate change by allowing users to inventory and display large, complex spatial data sets.  They can also analyze the potential interplay between various factors, getting us closer to a true understanding of how our dynamic climate may change in the coming decades and centuries.

    Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI), located in Redlands, produces GIS technology used by a wide variety of professionals for a broad range of applications.  The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) uses GIS to monitor the world’s storm activity; the U.S. Geological Survey uses GIS to collect and analyze data about volcanoes, earthquakes and tsunamis; and the U.S.  Department of Agriculture uses GIS to track the effects of drought on the nation’s crops.  From conservation organizations to international agencies, scientists across the globe are using GIS as an integrative platform that gives those researching and analyzing our environment and climate unprecedented vision and flexibility.

    Where do we go from here?

    Is the Earth getting hotter or colder?  Is the stress human populations are putting on the planet contributing to climate change?  What potential factors may significantly impact our ability to thrive and survive as a species?  What additional sorts of environmental monitoring can we be doing today to improve climate change tomorrow?  Only through careful observation of the data, application of scientific principals, and by using the latest technology do we have any hope of truly understanding the stressors and impacts on the incredibly complex system of Earth’s climate.